So it's likely now that the final week of October will bring quite a plunge to the CET. This could be one very topsy-turvy month in the end! Provisionally, we've seen both a record high and record low daily mean and a named storm to boot.

Looking at the models, it's not common for even a month in one of the transition seasons to see a 26C heat wave, followed two weeks later by a wintry blast which may or may not bring snow to some areas! This is looking like one very memorable year for weather!

Latest output still has the CET finishing close to 11C

I have added 1878 onto the chart just for fun.

Worth noting that the CET mean for the next 11 days is going to be much higher in Stonyhurst than at the other CET stations. So NW is best in terms of temperatures.

Mean temperature forecast 21-31 Oct

Stonyhurst 9.41C

Pershore College 8.50C

Rothamsted 8.14C

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Thanks GW!   Another month that's not too far from average...

Wonder whether November will give us our first colder than average month since March?

Thanks for the updates GW. The summer truly was one to remember for the right reasons for a change .

GFS 12z raw numbers give me 10.7*C as a final CET estimate. Still suspicious that some of the minimums for this week might be on the high side though. More realistic output for early next week now though.

About a week ago I decided that a final CET within 1*C of my (wild for fun) estimate would be a minor miracle, so I'm astounded to see this now looking plausible.

As I said before, I'd have gone with 11.4*C for this month using the usual model signals, so I'd probably be looking at a lower monthly error if I'd gone with that as I did the previous 9 months. As soon as I do otherwise...  .

Thank you for the update and the stats GW!  What a year it’s been for records!  

So it's likely now that the final week of October will bring quite a plunge to the CET. This could be one very topsy-turvy month in the end! Provisionally, we've seen both a record high and record low daily mean and a named storm to boot.

Looking at the models, it's not common for even a month in one of the transition seasons to see a 26C heat wave, followed two weeks later by a wintry blast which may or may not bring snow to some areas! This is looking like one very memorable year for weather!

If I remember rightly, it happened the other way round in Spring this year too.  Wasn’t there a couple of days right at the beginning of May when we had frost and snow/sleet then the heatwave began for May Day Bank Holiday?  

Met Office Hadley        12.5c.        Anomaly     1.3c.    Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                     12.17c       Anomaly     1.66c

Netweather                  12.82c       Anomaly     2.43c

Clevedon Weather         13.7c        Anomaly     2.52c

Hexam                         10.5c        Anomaly     0.14c

Mansfield Weather        12.7c        Anomaly      0.98c

Peasedown St John       12.39c      Anomaly      0.41c   

5  Down  1 Up  4 Steady

Mean of my 10  12.49c.

Met Office Hadley         12.4c       Anomaly     1.2c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                      12.06      Anomaly      1.55c

Netweather                   12.64c     Anomaly     2.25c

Alton                             11.9c      Anomaly     -0.84c

Canvey Island                 13.4c     Anomaly      0.26c

Hexam                           10.7c     Anomaly      0.6c

Mansfield Weather           12.7c     Anomaly      0.98c

Peasedown St John   12.25c       Anomaly    0.27c

6 Down TWO Up  TWO Steady

Mean of my 10 watched stations      12.32c         

Still only falling steadily but the past couple of nights have been milder here.  If they’ve been similar at the three stations, that will have kept the minima up.  What will the weekend bring? 

Latest estimate for the October CET is a finishing number of 10.92C.

Estimated mean for Saturday is 4.5C which is cold but nothing remarkable historically speaking.

Latest estimate for the October CET is a finishing number of 10.92C.

Estimated mean for Saturday is 4.5C which is cold but nothing remarkable historically speaking.

Latest estimate for the October CET is a finishing number of 10.92C.

Estimated mean for Saturday is 4.5C which is cold but nothing remarkable historically speaking.

10.92 would be a good finishing number (my prediction was 10.93) .

I have never won a single month in all of the years I've played this competition ! 

Latest estimate for the October CET is a finishing number of 10.92C.

Estimated mean for Saturday is 4.5C which is cold but nothing remarkable historically speaking.

Guess that's because minima aren't that impressive due to wind, cloud, etc?

I reckon Sunday night could be quite a lot colder than GFS is showing though...

 Just a bit short of my 11.2c guess but still above average for October.  

I always think if your within 0.5 of average you've basically had an "average" month rather than warmer or colder than average. 

Met Office Hadley       12.3c.     Anomaly     1.2c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                    12.06c    Anomaly     1.55c

Netweather                 12.57c    Anomaly     1.18c

Mansfield Weather 12.7c      Anomaly     0.98c     

Peasedown St John 12.12c   Anomaly     0.14c

Treviskey Redruth      12.4c   Anomaly    0.32c

Two Down  4 Steady   4 Up

Mean of my 10   12.35c.        

I always think if your within 0.5 of average you've basically had an "average" month rather than warmer or colder than average. 

Met Office Hadley UP today by.... 0.1 Difference..... 

Met Office Hadley         12.3c.      Anomaly    1.3c.  Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                      11.98c.    Anomaly    1.47c

Netweather                   12.52c     Anomaly    2.12c

Mansfield Weather          12.6c      Anomaly    0.88c

Peasedown St John         12.53c.    Anomaly    0.55c.

5 Down  1 Up   4 Steady

Men of 10     12.03c.

My own estimates have seen the weekend edge upward a little but next week, most notably Tue-Wed, edge downward slightly more.

My latest for the final CET is 10.8*C, but this is using provisional Hadley as the starting figure so adjusting for that could mean a 10.7*C or even 10.6*C based on the usual situation... but only if I'm doing this right, and I have to wonder given that GW's final figure estimates have been persistently a little above mine of late despite using actual CET data for the starting point which is nearly always lower than the provisional (or is this time an exception? It wasn't as of 18th...). One day I will crack the mysterious GW code, with any luck within the next half-century .

A very respectable mean of 13.86c here as of the close of play yesterday.

The fall in the next few days will be quite dramatic. 

Met Office Hadley        12.12c.      Anomaly       1.2c. Provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     11.90c       Anomaly       1.39c

Netweather                  12.4c         Anomaly       2.01c

Alton                            11.8c        Anomaly       -0.94c

Hexam                          10.7c       Anomaly        0.6c

Mansfield Weather          12.5c       Anomaly        0.78c

Peasedown St John         12.2c       Anomaly        0.29c

8 Down 1 Steady  1Up

Men Of my 10   12.19c.    

All Down Today.

Met Office Hadley      12.0c.      Anomaly      1.1c. Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                   11.65c     Anomaly      1.14c

Netweather                12.24c     Anomaly      1.85c

Alton                          11.5c      Anomaly      -1.24c

Canvey Island             13.0c      Anomaly       -0.14c

Cheadle Hulme            11.8c      Anomaly       0.62c

Clevedon Weather        13.0c      Anomaly       1.2c

Darwen                       11.6c      Anomaly       -0.34c

Hexam                        10.4c      Anomaly       -0.24c

Mount Sorrel                11.7c      Anomaly       -0.1c

Mansfield Weather        12.1c      Anomaly       0.38c                 

Peasedown st John       12.03c    Anomaly       0.05c

Treviskey Redruth         12.1c     Anomaly       -0.62c

Mean of my  10 watched stations   11.93c.                

Well I think the CET is going to take a complete hammering today with maxima in the Midlands struggling to get much above 5C!