Could be a warm night watch on Friday night. Temperatures actually start to rise after dark and by early morning (4am-6am) Saturday large swathes of England are showing temperatures of between 17 and 19°C in the 0100 Arpege (may be a redundant link if you catch this afterthe 1300 has come out):

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=00&charthour=77&chartname=uk2mtmpsohd&chartregion=uk-s&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

Not sure what the mid-October record high min would be. Had a 17°C min in early Oct 1985 and a couple of 16s in 2006.

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CET 12.2C provisional to 9th.

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Met Office Hadley          12.2c.      Anomaly      0.1c.  Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                       11.6c       Anomaly      1.14c

Netweather                    12.25c     Anomaly      1.86c

Clevedon Weather          13.5c       Anomaly      2.32c

Hexam                          10.7c       Anomaly      -0.06c

Mansfield Weather          12.1c       Anomaly      0.38c

Peasedown St John         12.03c     Anomaly      0.13c

 

5 Down and 5 Up Today

Mean of my 10     12.04c            

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Met Office Hadley          12.2c.      Anomaly      0.1c.  Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                       11.6c       Anomaly      1.14c

Netweather                    12.25c     Anomaly      1.86c

Clevedon Weather          13.5c       Anomaly      2.32c

Hexam                          10.7c       Anomaly      -0.06c

Mansfield Weather          12.1c       Anomaly      0.38c

Peasedown St John         12.03c     Anomaly      0.13c

 

5 Down and 5 Up Today

Mean of my 10     12.04c            

Clevedon looking warm Art & with southerlies for a few days crossing those Dorset hills first, it could be a high mean there by the end of the weekend.

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It looks like it’s going to keep rising until after the weekend, which will take us beyond the half way mark. Then it will have to really go downhill for the month to end below average.  I’m fairly happy with my 11.2c guess, for now anyway!  

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The CET currently stands at 12.04C up to today by my calculations. A rise of 0.3C today. Further big rises to come over the next few days. 

The CET is expected to peak at 12.97C on Saturday. In fact it looks like we could smash the CET date record for the 13th. Currently estimates suggest a CET as high as 17.8C. The current record is 16.8C (set in 1990). If it verifies it would be the latest 17C+ CET mean on record. Currently the latest 17C CET mean was set on 11th Oct with 17.6C in 1978.

During next week the CET returns to close to average and may drop by more than a degree from its peak by the 24th to stand at 11.82C.

Incidentally the CET mean on the 7th of 7.1C was the lowest CET mean for 7th October on record. So we could have two CET date records this month, one a high and one a low. We have had a CET mean of 7.1C before in the first 10 days of October but only once. That was on 1 October 1816. The next lowest CET mean for the first 10 days of October was 7.6C on 2nd October 1816 followed by 7.7C on the 4th October 1841. Those are the only mean CET figures recorded below 8C in the first 10 days of October.

The CET currently stands at 12.04C up to today by my calculations. A rise of 0.3C today. Further big rises to come over the next few days. 

The CET is expected to peak at 12.97C on Saturday. In fact it looks like we could smash the CET date record for the 13th. Currently estimates suggest a CET as high as 17.8C. The current record is 16.8C (set in 1990). If it verifies it would be the latest 17C+ CET mean on record. Currently the latest 17C CET mean was set on 11th Oct with 17.6C in 1978.

During next week the CET returns to close to average and may drop by more than a degree from its peak by the 24th to stand at 11.82C.

Incidentally the CET mean on the 7th of 7.1C was the lowest CET mean for 7th October on record. So we could have two CET date records this month, one a high and one a low. We have had a CET mean of 7.1C before in the first 10 days of October but only once. That was on 1 October 1816. The next lowest CET mean for the first 10 days of October was 7.6C on 2nd October 1816 followed by 7.7C on the 4th October 1841. Those are the only mean CET figures recorded below 8C in the first 10 days of October.

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Really interesting stats as always GW!  It would be some piece of weather history if we break the latest October high record on 13th, after breaking the low record even earlier in the month!

This has been a heck of a year for record breaking weather and it would be interesting to see exactly how many records have been set during 2018 by the year end!   

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The CET currently stands at 12.04C up to today by my calculations. A rise of 0.3C today. Further big rises to come over the next few days. 

The CET is expected to peak at 12.97C on Saturday. In fact it looks like we could smash the CET date record for the 13th. Currently estimates suggest a CET as high as 17.8C. The current record is 16.8C (set in 1990). If it verifies it would be the latest 17C+ CET mean on record. Currently the latest 17C CET mean was set on 11th Oct with 17.6C in 1978.

During next week the CET returns to close to average and may drop by more than a degree from its peak by the 24th to stand at 11.82C.

Incidentally the CET mean on the 7th of 7.1C was the lowest CET mean for 7th October on record. So we could have two CET date records this month, one a high and one a low. We have had a CET mean of 7.1C before in the first 10 days of October but only once. That was on 1 October 1816. The next lowest CET mean for the first 10 days of October was 7.6C on 2nd October 1816 followed by 7.7C on the 4th October 1841. Those are the only mean CET figures recorded below 8C in the first 10 days of October.

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Amazing stat's GW! 

The amount of extreme's we're seeing this year is just incredible... It makes forecasting VERY challenging but also very interesting.

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Met Office Hadley           12.6c.     Anomaly      0.5c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                        12.12c    Anomaly      1.61c

Netweather                     12.54c    Anomaly      2.15c

Canvey Island                  14.0c     Anomaly      2.82c

Hexam                            11.2c     Anomaly       0.56c

Mansfield Weather            12.8c     Anomaly      1.8c

Peasedown St John           12.53c.   Anomaly      0.63c.

 

All my 10 are Up Today

Mean of my 10     12.63c.                                                         

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Amazing stat's GW! 

The amount of extreme's we're seeing this year is just incredible... It makes forecasting VERY challenging but also very interesting.

I really feel for you forecasters Gav!  Reading models is beyond me but I do follow the discussions and interpretations on the MO thread with great interest and I know what a tough year it’s been for you!  

So for me, without such forecasting challenges, it’s just been plain interesting and the CET threads have made it downright exciting!  

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I really feel for you forecasters Gav!  Reading models is beyond me but I do follow the discussions and interpretations on the MO thread with great interest and I know what a tough year it’s been for you!  

So for me, without such forecasting challenges, it’s just been plain interesting and the CET threads have made it downright exciting!  

Thanks Caz. 

Well a lot of the fun is the change of trying to get it right - Even if that's not always particularly successful lol!  

I notice the extended GFS is now playing with a cold final week to October! 

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Thanks Caz. 

Well a lot of the fun is the change of trying to get it right - Even if that's not always particularly successful lol!  

I notice the extended GFS is now playing with a cold final week to October! 

The weather is a very fickle force of nature and the UK climate has a tendency to spring surprises, so it would be impossible to get it right all the time!  

What I really like about your video forecasts is that you tell it as it is and don’t pretend to know anything for certain!  You describe what you’re seeing and explain how you expect the weather to play out and why.  

GW and SC are of the same ilk and explain why they see a particular scenario evolving!  All of you tell it as you see it, rather than how you’d like to see it!  It gets a lot of respect from me!  

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Met Office Hadley             12.9c.       Anomaly        0.0c.  Provisional to 11.th.

Metcheck                          12.37c      Anomaly        1.86c

Netweather                       12.87c      Anomaly        2.48c

Canvey Island                    13.4c       Anomaly        0.26c

Clevedon Weather               14.1c      Anomaly        2.92c

Mansfield Weather               12.9c      Anomaly        1.18c

Peasedown St John              12.43c    Anomaly        0.53c

 

2 Down

2 Steady

6 Up

Mean of my 10  12.70c.     

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The weather is a very fickle force of nature and the UK climate has a tendency to spring surprises, so it would be impossible to get it right all the time!  

What I really like about your video forecasts is that you tell it as it is and don’t pretend to know anything for certain!  You describe what you’re seeing and explain how you expect the weather to play out and why.  

GW and SC are of the same ilk and explain why they see a particular scenario evolving!  All of you tell it as you see it, rather than how you’d like to see it!  It gets a lot of respect from me!  

Awwwwwww... Thanks Caz. 

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The weather is a very fickle force of nature and the UK climate has a tendency to spring surprises, so it would be impossible to get it right all the time!  

What I really like about your video forecasts is that you tell it as it is and don’t pretend to know anything for certain!  You describe what you’re seeing and explain how you expect the weather to play out and why.  

GW and SC are of the same ilk and explain why they see a particular scenario evolving!  All of you tell it as you see it, rather than how you’d like to see it!  It gets a lot of respect from me!  

 

Agreed..  

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The weather is a very fickle force of nature and the UK climate has a tendency to spring surprises, so it would be impossible to get it right all the time!  

What I really like about your video forecasts is that you tell it as it is and don’t pretend to know anything for certain!  You describe what you’re seeing and explain how you expect the weather to play out and why.  

GW and SC are of the same ilk and explain why they see a particular scenario evolving!  All of you tell it as you see it, rather than how you’d like to see it!  It gets a lot of respect from me!  

That's very kind of you Caz.

Latest data suggests tomorrow's CET could be as high as 18.8C which is extraordinary. That would be the 5th warmest October mean on record for any day of the month. We have never before had a daily mean October CET higher than 17.7C after the 6th. Current date record for the 13th is 16.8C so we could break the record by 2C.

By way of comparison the extraordinary Halloween in 2014 saw a CET mean of 16.4C.

I did a chart recently in another thread showing the highest daily temperatures across the UK for each day of the year. Here is a similar chart for the daily CET mean.

My rough red line suggests that the highest attainable figure for 13 October would be fractionally over 19C. So the 18.8C predicted for tomorrow is close to the theoretical maximum for our current climate (although of course recent warming means that the red line may not be that good a predictor for what future maximums might be).

CHART

Met Office Hadley          13.1c       Anomaly        1.2c.  Provisional to  12th.

Metcheck                       12.77c     Anomaly        2.36c

Netweather                    13.17c     Anomaly        2.78c

Alton                             13.17c     Anomaly        2.78c

Canvey Island                14.2c       Anomaly        1.06c

Cheadle Hulme               12.7c      Anomaly         1.52c

Clevedon Weather           14.5c      Anomaly         3.32c

Darwen                          12.8c      Anomaly         0.82c

Hexam                           11.6c      Anomaly         0.96c

Mount Sorrel                   13.3c      Anomaly        1.5c

Mansfield Weather           13.35c    Anomaly        1.63c

Peasedown St John          13.63c    Anomaly        1.65c

Treviskey Redruth            13.5c.    Anomaly         0.78c

 

All my 10 are Up. 

Mean of my 10 watched stations  13.25c.

    

                

 

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CET for yesterday was 18.5C which as expected smashed the date record. It was held back by the temperatures shortly after 09z on Friday which actually formed the minimum for yesterday as Friday night was so warm. Nevertheless Rothamsted still managed a mean of 19.8C.

The CET has now peaked at 13.09C. All downhill from here. 

Temperatures look like returning to average or below for much of the rest of the month. Exceptions being Tuesday and Wednesday this week and also next weekend which look quite warm.

Current estimate is for the CET to reach 11.48C by the 28th. So best guess at the moment is that the CET will finish somewhere close to 11C.

We have been spoil't today here in the far SE. Its calm and the sun is coming out with the temperature approaching 20c.

The cool down begins in earnest. A 11c finish looks likely now.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefstmp2mmaxbirmingham.png?cb=369

 

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