Thanks Caz. 

Well a lot of the fun is the change of trying to get it right - Even if that's not always particularly successful lol!  

I notice the extended GFS is now playing with a cold final week to October! 

What I really like about your video forecasts is that you tell it as it is and don’t pretend to know anything for certain!  You describe what you’re seeing and explain how you expect the weather to play out and why.  

GW and SC are of the same ilk and explain why they see a particular scenario evolving!  All of you tell it as you see it, rather than how you’d like to see it!  It gets a lot of respect from me!  

Met Office Hadley             12.9c.       Anomaly        0.0c.  Provisional to 11.th.

Metcheck                          12.37c      Anomaly        1.86c

Netweather                       12.87c      Anomaly        2.48c

Canvey Island                    13.4c       Anomaly        0.26c

Clevedon Weather               14.1c      Anomaly        2.92c

Mansfield Weather               12.9c      Anomaly        1.18c

Peasedown St John              12.43c    Anomaly        0.53c

2 Down

2 Steady

6 Up

Mean of my 10  12.70c.     

Awwwwwww... Thanks Caz. 

Agreed..  

That's very kind of you Caz.

Latest data suggests tomorrow's CET could be as high as 18.8C which is extraordinary. That would be the 5th warmest October mean on record for any day of the month. We have never before had a daily mean October CET higher than 17.7C after the 6th. Current date record for the 13th is 16.8C so we could break the record by 2C.

By way of comparison the extraordinary Halloween in 2014 saw a CET mean of 16.4C.

I did a chart recently in another thread showing the highest daily temperatures across the UK for each day of the year. Here is a similar chart for the daily CET mean.

My rough red line suggests that the highest attainable figure for 13 October would be fractionally over 19C. So the 18.8C predicted for tomorrow is close to the theoretical maximum for our current climate (although of course recent warming means that the red line may not be that good a predictor for what future maximums might be).

CHART

Met Office Hadley          13.1c       Anomaly        1.2c.  Provisional to  12th.

Metcheck                       12.77c     Anomaly        2.36c

Netweather                    13.17c     Anomaly        2.78c

Alton                             13.17c     Anomaly        2.78c

Canvey Island                14.2c       Anomaly        1.06c

Cheadle Hulme               12.7c      Anomaly         1.52c

Clevedon Weather           14.5c      Anomaly         3.32c

Darwen                          12.8c      Anomaly         0.82c

Hexam                           11.6c      Anomaly         0.96c

Mount Sorrel                   13.3c      Anomaly        1.5c

Mansfield Weather           13.35c    Anomaly        1.63c

Peasedown St John          13.63c    Anomaly        1.65c

Treviskey Redruth            13.5c.    Anomaly         0.78c

All my 10 are Up. 

Mean of my 10 watched stations  13.25c.

CET for yesterday was 18.5C which as expected smashed the date record. It was held back by the temperatures shortly after 09z on Friday which actually formed the minimum for yesterday as Friday night was so warm. Nevertheless Rothamsted still managed a mean of 19.8C.

The CET has now peaked at 13.09C. All downhill from here. 

Temperatures look like returning to average or below for much of the rest of the month. Exceptions being Tuesday and Wednesday this week and also next weekend which look quite warm.

Current estimate is for the CET to reach 11.48C by the 28th. So best guess at the moment is that the CET will finish somewhere close to 11C.

We have been spoil't today here in the far SE. Its calm and the sun is coming out with the temperature approaching 20c.

The cool down begins in earnest. A 11c finish looks likely now.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefstmp2mmaxbirmingham.png?cb=369

Met Office Hadley         13.4c.      Anomaly      1.6c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                      13.12c     Anomaly      2.61c

Netweather                   13.66c     Anomaly      3.27c

Canvey Island               14.6c       Anomaly      3.42c

Hexam                         11.9c       Anomaly      1.26c

Mansfield Weather        13.7c        Anomaly      1.98c

Peasedown St john       12.78c      Anomaly       0.8c.

1 Down  8 Up

Mean of my 10   =  13.31c.

If your values of 7.1C and 18.5C prove to be the confirmed values for the 7th and 13th (The Met Office are showing 7.8 and 18.1 provisionally for the CET means on those dates) then it also means we have has a temperature swing of +11.4C in 6 days

Looking at my daily CET data, there have only been two other instances of this since 2000 being April 2003 and Jan/Feb 2004

Also there has not been any instance of a temperature rise like this in 6 days in any October before

I've been eyeing up the signs of a big trough dropping down east of the UK by the final week of the month and wondering how much it could drag the CET down... but the momentum seems to be toward it being too little, too late to fully neutralise the positive anomaly built up beforehand.

In fact, I can see some scope for new bouts of warmth from the southwest to keep the CET higher than GW's latest estimate, should the unusually strong Azores ridge (due to some western Indian Ocean convective activity in recent weeks) end up far south and west enough.

From a mitigation of damage perspective I'd rather the high centred right over the UK and set up a prolonged inversion with frosty nights and foggy days, but from an exceptional stats perspective the 'warm' outcome has its merits as it would see my local annual mean, and perhaps that of many other places in the south at least, draw close to or beat the existing record peak (which was set in 2014 here).

It's interesting to contemplate how fragile even the current warm anomaly technically is; the big warm signal from the modelling as of late September could well have proven (and, I suppose, could yet prove - if the frost and fog outcome managed to come together) to be a red herring as far as the final CET goes, much as that of late Aug for September turned out to be.

Such is the challenge when trying to make serious efforts at reasonably reliable (at least 75% success rate) month-ahead guidance. I'm not sure if it will ever really be achievable - but at least it won't be for a lack of trying . Not the most encouraging, though, that even now it's hard to call it between near-average and anomalously warm for the final figure this month .

I'm keeping my fingers crossed!  I have a vested interest in continued warmth this month.

Met Office Hadley         13.3c        Anomaly      1.6c.  Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                      12.88c      Anomaly      2.37c

Netweather                   13.53c      Anomaly      3.14c

Hexam                          11.0c       Anomaly      0.3c

Mansfield Weather          13.3c       Anomaly      1.58c

Peasedown St John         12.5c      Anomaly        0.52c.       

Treviskey Redruth           12.9c      Anomaly        0.18c

All down today

mean of my 10  =    12.95c

Downward trend this week I suspect.

Met Office Hadley            13.0c.      Anomaly      1.4c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                         12.5c      Anomaly       2.25c

Netweather                     13.35c     Anomaly       2.96c

Mansfield  Weather           13.2c      Anomaly       1.48c

Peasedown St John           12.22c.   Anomaly        0.24c.

3 Steady  3 Down  4 up

Mean of my 10   12.89c.            

Met Office Hadley          13.0c.       Anomaly     1.5c.  Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                       12.79c      Anomaly     2.28c.

Netweather                    13.38c      Anomaly     2.99c

Mansfield Weather            13.2c       Anomaly      1.98c

Peasedown St  John          12.33c     Anomaly       0.32c.

1 Down  4 Steady  5 Up

Mean of my 10 = 12.88c.

Met Office Hadley            13.0c.       Anomaly      1.5c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                         12.66c      Anomaly      2.15c

Netweather                      12.9c        Anomaly      0.14c

Canvey Island                   14.2c        Anomaly     3.02c

Hexam                              10.6c       Anomaly      -0.04c

Mansfield Weather         13.0c      Anomaly     1.28c

Peasedown St John        12.23c    Anomaly     0.32c.

4 Steady  6 Down

Mean of 10  = 12.67c.    

Met Office Hadley         12.8c.       Anomaly      1.4c.  provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                      12.39c      Anomaly      1.88c

Netweather                   13.16c      Anomaly      2.77c

Mansfield Weather           12.8c       Anomaly      1.08c

Peasedown St John           12.35c.    Anomaly       0.37c.

TWO Up  8 Down

Mean of 10  = 12.56c.

GW's 11*C final CET estimate still looking a good bet based on the GFS 12z raw data which gives me a final figure of exactly that.

That being said, some of the minimums during the (relatively) cold air visitation later next week look suspiciously high... and this may also be the case for a few during the next 7 days, given how last night turned out quite a bit lower than the equivalent GFS prediction. Pershore even made it down to the freezing mark.

We'll see... but I daresay mid-10s is not out of the question unless the ridge not only topples east faster but gets flattened quicker too (now I've gone and done it! Ha!).

That'd feel like a lucky escape for me this month after I was so... adventurous (but then again - not really compared to the LTA... it's just that there were a lot of high estimates this month in response to the super-balmy output of late Sep).

Met Office Hadley         12.6c.      Anomaly      1.3c.   Provisional to  20th.

Metcheck                      12.26c     Anomaly      1.75c

Netweather                   12.93c     Anomaly      2.54c

Clevedon Weather          13.8c      Anomaly       2.62c

Hexam                          10.7c      Anomaly       0.06c 

Mansfield Weather         12.8c      Anomaly       1.08c

Peasedown St John        12.34c    Anomaly        0.36c

TWO Up  4 Steady   4 Down   

Mean of My watched 10 stations    12.50c.

GFS trending a little greater in both magnitude and duration of cold late next week and into the following one. 

Result is a final CET estimate of 10.8*C from the 12z; 0.2*C down on that from yesterday's. 

Impressive given that less than a week prior, the estimate sits in the low 12s! 

That's astonishing from where I thought it would be . Can it go any lower?