I've been eyeing up the signs of a big trough dropping down east of the UK by the final week of the month and wondering how much it could drag the CET down... but the momentum seems to be toward it being too little, too late to fully neutralise the positive anomaly built up beforehand.
In fact, I can see some scope for new bouts of warmth from the southwest to keep the CET higher than GW's latest estimate, should the unusually strong Azores ridge (due to some western Indian Ocean convective activity in recent weeks) end up far south and west enough.
From a mitigation of damage perspective I'd rather the high centred right over the UK and set up a prolonged inversion with frosty nights and foggy days, but from an exceptional stats perspective the 'warm' outcome has its merits as it would see my local annual mean, and perhaps that of many other places in the south at least, draw close to or beat the existing record peak (which was set in 2014 here).
It's interesting to contemplate how fragile even the current warm anomaly technically is; the big warm signal from the modelling as of late September could well have proven (and, I suppose, could yet prove - if the frost and fog outcome managed to come together) to be a red herring as far as the final CET goes, much as that of late Aug for September turned out to be.
Such is the challenge when trying to make serious efforts at reasonably reliable (at least 75% success rate) month-ahead guidance. I'm not sure if it will ever really be achievable - but at least it won't be for a lack of trying . Not the most encouraging, though, that even now it's hard to call it between near-average and anomalously warm for the final figure this month .
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