As usual all CET predictions to be sent to me via PM please
Deadline is 2359 on Tuesday evening (2 October).
A very average September overall but within that there was some quite warm and cold weather which largely cancelled each other out over the course of the whole month.
Historic CET summary for October
1971-2000 10.4C (30 years)
1981-2010 10.7C (30 years)
1998-2017 11.2C (last 20 years)
We have had some very warm Octobers in recent years, 12.4C in 2017 and 12.5C in both 2013 and 2014 and 12.6C in 2011. The only years recently that were significantly below average were 2008 and 2012 with 9.7C.
Here is a chart of the October CET for all years since 1961:
Direct link to larger version of the chart
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Current model output
GFS (00z) - potentially warmer in week 2 after something of a cool start
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=
Multi Op - generally good agreement between the runs. A brief big dip on 1st October and again on the 7th but otherwise looking a little above average.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=OP&bw=
Met Office contingency planners outlook
Not yet available
Temperature analogues
See my separate analysis of October temperatures where we have a cool end to September. This shows that October can be very cold but when we have had a warm summer then actually October tends to be close to average.
If we consider years with average temperatures in August and September there is no real trend. We have not really had many years since 1950 where an average August and September has followed a period of very warm weather. The one good match is 2009 where March to June was very warm (as compared to April to July this year). Of course 2009 was followed by a very cold winter, albeit October and November were mild.
Going further back it is very difficult to find any other good matches. The first one I come to is 1798. In that year the August CET was 16.4C and September 13.6C so very similar to this year. July was close to average at 16.3C but April to June was very mild with 10.4C, 12.9C and 16.9C respectively. So again very similar to this year. March was 5.1C which is also similar to this year. Only July was significantly different.
October 1798 had a CET of 9.9C but then things turned very cold with 4.7C in November, 1.5C in December, 1.7C in January 1799, 2.8C in February and 5.1C in March. Warmth only returned in April when the CET exceeded 10C. Looking at the CET for late September in 1798 it was not as cold as this year but not too far off with 11.81C. Solar activity was very low in the autumn / winter of 1798/99. So actually this year is a very good match to 2018.
First look at October temperature tracker
After a cool start temperatures trend towards average by the end of the second week.
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Edited by moderator
01 November 2018 13:41:58
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Reason: Not specified