GFS 00z was much warmer again, probably good for a finish in the 12s.

GFS 06z was considerably cooler again, but not as cool as yesterday's 12z; likely good for a finish in the high 10s or low 11s.

ECM 00z was a bit alarming for me; due to a more counteractive MJO evolution being predicted by that model, I wasn't expecting it to produce any runs that maintained a warm continental-type feed into the UK right on through next weekend.

To be honest, I sense that the weight of probability has edged in favour of an 11-12*C CET over the past few days, and that I've taken the wacky 'let's go completely against the model guidance and see what happens' idea too far. Even the very next day I was wondering why I'd gone quite so low; something in the mid-10s made more sense to me in the light of the new day.

We'll see, though. It's possible that if we go the major anticyclone route, it expands across England enough that we see chilly nights and foggy days. I actually see that as the best chance of a CET below 11*C this month; a cool but unsettled flow would be less effective due to the milder nights, unless it was exceptionally cool by day.

Wherever you are in the range of estimations for this month - there's still reason to be hopeful. Just a little more so if you're in the upper half!

 

Don't lose heart yet snowman! It's changing day by day ATM.

I think you are sitting pretty though with 12.64 c. I really believe the cet record is under threat some incredibly warm charts at the moment. 13.3c in 2001 to beat.

 

 

I think you are sitting pretty though with 12.64 c. I really believe the cet record is under threat some incredibly warm charts at the moment. 13.3c in 2001 to beat.

 

I'm not sure what the all time CET high is for October. I thought it was 13.6C

Let's not get carried away here... next week's overall pattern would have to persist well into the following week for CET records to start being challenged. 

Reason being the cool start to the month (including this coming weekend). The GFS 12z gives me an estimate that brings the CET down to 11.5*C as of 7th, then raises it a whole degree to 12.5*C as of 14th, before taking it back down by the same amount to be at 11.5*C again as of 21st.

For what it's worth, from there, long-term average conditions would lead to a final CET in the high 10s. 

The ECM 12z looks a little warmer for next Thu-Sun but might be setting up a UK high on the 10th day.

So there's still a lot of possibilities for the final CET this month, despite next week's potentially impressive balminess.

Now - just watch the models start to extend the balmy pattern into the following week .

Ive lost my CET mojo and confess to having guessed October and have temporarily lost faith in my methodology. Sods law says I will have my best month of the year.

My mojo perks every time I go through getting the daily 10. Different from Met Office Hadley CET. Their are other stations out there. 

Given the outlook, my prediction of 9.9°C is well and truly stuffed. I might just drop into last place in the competition at the end of this month! 

Ive lost my CET mojo and confess to having guessed October and have temporarily lost faith in my methodology. Sods law says I will have my best month of the year.

Met Office Hadley         13.4c.    Anomaly     1.1c   Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                      12.41c   Anomaly     1.90c

Netweather                   13.3c    Anomaly      2.91c

Clevedon Weather          14.5c    Anomaly      2.56c

Hexam                          10.4c    Anomaly      -0.24c

Mansfield Weather         12.3c    Anomaly      0.5c

Peasedown St John    13.49c     Anomaly     1.5c

1 Steady  3  Down   6 Up

Mean of my 10     12.55c.                

The CET will drop over 1C this weekend due to very cold conditions today and a very cold night tonight. Just 8.4C where I am at the moment. 

But next week things turn very mild indeed. By the middle of the month the CET could be back to around 12.9C. Beyond that maybe a very gradual cool down.

You will notice there is a very big gap at the moment between my CET figures and Hadley's. This is almost all down to the data for the 4th. I have a mean of 13.5C for the 4th whereas Hadley has posted a figure of 15.5C. No idea how Hadley comes up with that number but it is complete rubbish. I do wonder if it is a typo. Hadley is also 1C above my figure for the 1st. The other days are within 0.2C.

So just bear in mind that the Hadley mean is seriously overstated at the moment (by about 0.6C).

Something to watch out for this time next week is possible date records. The date record is above 25C every day until the 13th when it starts to drop away quite quickly. While I think temperatures could get up to around 22-23C during the second half of next week that won't be enough to get a date record.

However, this morning's ECM run shows the heat holding on until Sunday. By this stage the date record is dropping. The date record for the 14th is 23.0C. The chart below shows a maximum around 23.5C. So that would be a record if it verified.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/greater-london/temperature-f/20181014-1200z.html

The chart for Monday is also quite warm with a maximum around 22C. The date record for the 15th is 22.8C.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/dorset/temperature-f/20181015-1200z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bedfordshire/temperature-f/20181015-1200z.html

Have Hadley down down as 12.3c Anomaly 0.1 to the 3rd.  For the 4th  13.1 Anomaly 0.9c.

Something to watch out for this time next week is possible date records. The date record is above 25C every day until the 13th when it starts to drop away quite quickly. While I think temperatures could get up to around 22-23C during the second half of next week that won't be enough to get a date record.

However, this morning's ECM run shows the heat holding on until Sunday. By this stage the date record is dropping. The date record for the 14th is 23.0C. The chart below shows a maximum around 23.5C. So that would be a record if it verified.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/greater-london/temperature-f/20181014-1200z.html

The chart for Monday is also quite warm with a maximum around 22C. The date record for the 15th is 22.8C.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/dorset/temperature-f/20181015-1200z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bedfordshire/temperature-f/20181015-1200z.html

All seems possible, now that Trawscoed has those 2 November date records at 22°C +

Well would you just look at that; the tide has turned again and now the warmth is indeed being extended into the week after next. At least I saw one thing coming .

Strange to see this trend given that with the MJO projected to move to phase 2 (western Indian Ocean) and decline, and the atmosphere not having established a proper Nino-like state to counteract the forcing from that MJO activity, the temperature anomaly trend really ought to be down rather than up beyond the end of next week (even using my usual model guidance + long-range signals combination I'd have 'only' estimated 11.4*C this month due to indications of this pattern change).

Trouble is, this use of tropical activity to guide expectations assumes that the past offers a suitable guide for the future... but with the Arctic sea ice now on par with the lowest on record having undergone an extreme delay to the refreeze, I fear this may not be the case anymore! 

Those with CET estimates in the 9s or 10s best hope these models are giving next week's pattern too much inertia and are therefore overlooking a marked pattern change to come.

Should this not occur, then I think it will be a strong case study to support a link between Arctic amplification and weather patterns becoming 'stuck' for a longer duration.

At least I can't completely lose out this month because when it comes down to it, I greatly enjoy experiencing tangibly warm conditions unusually late in the autumn season... and I happen to be off work next week .

Well would you just look at that; the tide has turned again and now the warmth is indeed being extended into the week after next. At least I saw one thing coming .

 

Strange to see this trend given that with the MJO projected to move to phase 2 (western Indian Ocean) and decline, and the atmosphere not having established a proper Nino-like state to counteract the forcing from that MJO activity, the temperature anomaly trend really ought to be down rather than up beyond the end of next week (even using my usual model guidance + long-range signals combination I'd have 'only' estimated 11.4*C this month due to indications of this pattern change).

Trouble is, this use of tropical activity to guide expectations assumes that the past offers a suitable guide for the future... but with the Arctic sea ice now on par with the lowest on record having undergone an extreme delay to the refreeze, I fear this may not be the case anymore! 

Those with CET estimates in the 9s or 10s best hope these models are giving next week's pattern too much inertia and are therefore overlooking a marked pattern change to come.

Should this not occur, then I think it will be a strong case study to support a link between Arctic amplification and weather patterns becoming 'stuck' for a longer duration.

 

At least I can't completely lose out this month because when it comes down to it, I greatly enjoy experiencing tangibly warm conditions unusually late in the autumn season... and I happen to be off work next week .

Nice post there James.

Met Office Hadley        12.7c.     Anomaly     0.4c  Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                     11.43c    Anomaly     0.92c

Netweather                  12.59c    Anomaly     2.2c  

Alton                            11.4c     Anomaly     -1.34c

Canvey Island               12.0c     Anomaly     -1.14c

Cheadle Hulme              11.8c     Anomaly     0.62c

Clevedon Weather          13.6c     Anomaly    -2.42c

Darwen                         10.7c     Anomaly    -1.24c

Hexam                           9.1c      Anomaly    -1.54c

Mount Sorrel                  10.9c     Anomaly    -0.9c

Mansfield Weather          11.3c     Anomaly     -0.92c

Peasedown     St John     12.63c   Anomaly     0.65c

Treviskey   Redruth         12.3c.    Anomaly     0.42c.           

10 Down today.

Mean of 10 = 11.57c

Hope you've all had a good weekend, whatever the weather .

Today's seen a cooler trend for the week after next in the model output as a whole - but mainly by day, with the GFS 12z for example giving me an estimate of 11.4*C as of 23rd which is still a smidgen above average. LTA conditions thereafter would land the final CET close to 10.7*C. The run instead ends with a chilly pattern setting up, for which typical values would land the CET near 10*C instead, but this is purely speculative at such long range; if instead it returned to warmer than average then a finish some way through the 11s could still occur.

The overall theme of a cool second half seems to have really fought back today after seeming to fade yesterday. It could still be a red herring though. Only time will tell for sure!

Met Office Hadley        12.0c.       Anomaly       -0.3c.  Provisional to 7th

Metcheck                     11.25c      Anomaly       0.74c

Netweather                  11.93c      Anomaly       1.54c

Clevedon Weather         13.4c       Anomaly       -2.22c

Mansfield Weather       11.4c      Anomaly       =0.32c

Peasedown St John     11.99c       Anomaly     00.01c.

Treviskey Redruth        12.6c       Anomaly      -0.12c

4 Up  6 Down

 Mean  of my 10   11.60c.   

Well October looks like it's "up for grabs" at the moment but I'm thinking we could follow August and September and have a CET month that's not too far from average in the end?

Met Office Hadley      11.9c.      Anomaly       -0.3c.  Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                   11.45c     Anomaly      0.95c

Netweather                12.01c     Anomaly       1.62c

Mansfield Weather      11.9c       Anomaly       0.18    

Peasedown st John.     11.84c    Anomaly        -0.14c,

1 Down  1 Steady  8  Up. Mean of My 10  = 12.04c.