We flew from Birmingham to India on 1st March, took off in a snowstorm at sub zero temps, after other UK airports had closed.  Then landed home two weeks later to 15c and sunshine, then awoke the next day to snow and freezing temps!   In March!!!!  

This year has been the absolute best for weather and still has more to give!  

Latest output still has the CET finishing close to 11C

I have added 1878 onto the chart just for fun.

Worth noting that the CET mean for the next 11 days is going to be much higher in Stonyhurst than at the other CET stations. So NW is best in terms of temperatures.

Mean temperature forecast 21-31 Oct

Stonyhurst 9.41C

Pershore College 8.50C

Rothamsted 8.14C

Finally the Met Office has issued the daily weather summary for August. It also released September at the same time.

We managed one extra 30C day on 4 August with 30.4C at Ringmer. So in total we had 28 days with 30C or more this year which I believe is a record. Those 28 days all fell in a 44 day period from 25 June to 7 August.

The CET mean for the period 25 Jun to 7 Aug was 19.19C. This is 2.43C above the 1981-2010 mean of 16.76C.

CHART1

CHART2

Met Office  Hadley        12.6c       Anomaly      1.0c. provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                      12.23c     Anomaly      1.72c

Netweather                   12.85c     Anomaly      2.46c

Alton                            12.4c       Anomaly      -0.34c            My 10 using 5 year Average

Canvey Island               13.7c       Anomaly       0.56c

Cheadle  Hulme             12.2c       Anomaly       1.02c

Clevedon Weather         13.7c      Anomaly        2.52c

Darwen                         12.3c      Anomaly        0.36c

Hexam                          11.0c      Anomaly        0.36c                        

Mount Sorrel                  12.3c      Anomaly        0.5c

Mansfield Weather           12.8c     Anomaly        1.08c

Peasedown St John          12.8c    Anomaly    0.4c

Treviskey                       12.6c     Anomaly   -0.34c

TWO Down   3 Up   5 Steady

Mean of My 10 watched stations  =  12.53c. 

Thank you GW. For the charts. Good information as always. 

So it's likely now that the final week of October will bring quite a plunge to the CET. This could be one very topsy-turvy month in the end! Provisionally, we've seen both a record high and record low daily mean and a named storm to boot.

Looking at the models, it's not common for even a month in one of the transition seasons to see a 26C heat wave, followed two weeks later by a wintry blast which may or may not bring snow to some areas! This is looking like one very memorable year for weather!

Thanks GW!   Another month that's not too far from average...

Wonder whether November will give us our first colder than average month since March?

Thanks for the updates GW. The summer truly was one to remember for the right reasons for a change .

GFS 12z raw numbers give me 10.7*C as a final CET estimate. Still suspicious that some of the minimums for this week might be on the high side though. More realistic output for early next week now though.

About a week ago I decided that a final CET within 1*C of my (wild for fun) estimate would be a minor miracle, so I'm astounded to see this now looking plausible.

As I said before, I'd have gone with 11.4*C for this month using the usual model signals, so I'd probably be looking at a lower monthly error if I'd gone with that as I did the previous 9 months. As soon as I do otherwise...  .

Thank you for the update and the stats GW!  What a year it’s been for records!  

If I remember rightly, it happened the other way round in Spring this year too.  Wasn’t there a couple of days right at the beginning of May when we had frost and snow/sleet then the heatwave began for May Day Bank Holiday?  

Met Office Hadley        12.5c.        Anomaly     1.3c.    Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                     12.17c       Anomaly     1.66c

Netweather                  12.82c       Anomaly     2.43c

Clevedon Weather         13.7c        Anomaly     2.52c

Hexam                         10.5c        Anomaly     0.14c

Mansfield Weather        12.7c        Anomaly      0.98c

Peasedown St John       12.39c      Anomaly      0.41c   

5  Down  1 Up  4 Steady

Mean of my 10  12.49c.

Met Office Hadley         12.4c       Anomaly     1.2c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                      12.06      Anomaly      1.55c

Netweather                   12.64c     Anomaly     2.25c

Alton                             11.9c      Anomaly     -0.84c

Canvey Island                 13.4c     Anomaly      0.26c

Hexam                           10.7c     Anomaly      0.6c

Mansfield Weather           12.7c     Anomaly      0.98c

Peasedown St John   12.25c       Anomaly    0.27c

6 Down TWO Up  TWO Steady

Mean of my 10 watched stations      12.32c         

Still only falling steadily but the past couple of nights have been milder here.  If they’ve been similar at the three stations, that will have kept the minima up.  What will the weekend bring? 

Latest estimate for the October CET is a finishing number of 10.92C.

Estimated mean for Saturday is 4.5C which is cold but nothing remarkable historically speaking.

10.92 would be a good finishing number (my prediction was 10.93) .

I have never won a single month in all of the years I've played this competition ! 

Guess that's because minima aren't that impressive due to wind, cloud, etc?

I reckon Sunday night could be quite a lot colder than GFS is showing though...

I always think if your within 0.5 of average you've basically had an "average" month rather than warmer or colder than average. 

Met Office Hadley       12.3c.     Anomaly     1.2c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                    12.06c    Anomaly     1.55c

Netweather                 12.57c    Anomaly     1.18c

Mansfield Weather 12.7c      Anomaly     0.98c     

Peasedown St John 12.12c   Anomaly     0.14c

Treviskey Redruth      12.4c   Anomaly    0.32c

Two Down  4 Steady   4 Up

Mean of my 10   12.35c.        

Met Office Hadley UP today by.... 0.1 Difference..... 

Met Office Hadley         12.3c.      Anomaly    1.3c.  Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                      11.98c.    Anomaly    1.47c

Netweather                   12.52c     Anomaly    2.12c

Mansfield Weather          12.6c      Anomaly    0.88c

Peasedown St John         12.53c.    Anomaly    0.55c.

5 Down  1 Up   4 Steady

Men of 10     12.03c.

My own estimates have seen the weekend edge upward a little but next week, most notably Tue-Wed, edge downward slightly more.

My latest for the final CET is 10.8*C, but this is using provisional Hadley as the starting figure so adjusting for that could mean a 10.7*C or even 10.6*C based on the usual situation... but only if I'm doing this right, and I have to wonder given that GW's final figure estimates have been persistently a little above mine of late despite using actual CET data for the starting point which is nearly always lower than the provisional (or is this time an exception? It wasn't as of 18th...). One day I will crack the mysterious GW code, with any luck within the next half-century .

A very respectable mean of 13.86c here as of the close of play yesterday.

The fall in the next few days will be quite dramatic. 

Met Office Hadley        12.12c.      Anomaly       1.2c. Provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     11.90c       Anomaly       1.39c

Netweather                  12.4c         Anomaly       2.01c

Alton                            11.8c        Anomaly       -0.94c

Hexam                          10.7c       Anomaly        0.6c

Mansfield Weather          12.5c       Anomaly        0.78c

Peasedown St John         12.2c       Anomaly        0.29c

8 Down 1 Steady  1Up

Men Of my 10   12.19c.    

All Down Today.

Met Office Hadley      12.0c.      Anomaly      1.1c. Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                   11.65c     Anomaly      1.14c

Netweather                12.24c     Anomaly      1.85c

Alton                          11.5c      Anomaly      -1.24c

Canvey Island             13.0c      Anomaly       -0.14c

Cheadle Hulme            11.8c      Anomaly       0.62c

Clevedon Weather        13.0c      Anomaly       1.2c

Darwen                       11.6c      Anomaly       -0.34c

Hexam                        10.4c      Anomaly       -0.24c

Mount Sorrel                11.7c      Anomaly       -0.1c

Mansfield Weather        12.1c      Anomaly       0.38c                 

Peasedown st John       12.03c    Anomaly       0.05c

Treviskey Redruth         12.1c     Anomaly       -0.62c

Mean of my  10 watched stations   11.93c.                

Well I think the CET is going to take a complete hammering today with maxima in the Midlands struggling to get much above 5C!