http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&article=0 

---

Mark Vogan has issued his winter forecast,

UK TO FACE 3RD STRAIGHT WINTER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY, CRIPPLING SNOW AND SEVERE COLD, WORST OF WINTER CONTINENTWIDE TO BE CENTRED OVER SCANDINAVIA

DECEMBER

JANUARY

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html 

We'll all be wondering what the fuss was about in a couple of weeks. The patterns are very slowly edging towards a cold set-up - the persistant blocking to the east is just a start.

If only that persistent block will move to the west and force those Atlantic storms into Iberia, now that would be great.

Mark Vogan has issued his winter forecast,

UK TO FACE 3RD STRAIGHT WINTER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY, CRIPPLING SNOW AND SEVERE COLD, WORST OF WINTER CONTINENTWIDE TO BE CENTRED OVER SCANDINAVIA

DECEMBER

PERIOD BETWEEN DECEMBER 15-20TH HERALDS THE ONSET OF INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND COLDER WEATHER FROM OFF THE CONTINENT

JANUARY

The tough later part of December will set the stage for what may be a severe first 10 to 15 days of January as a strong NEGATIVE NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation & AO (Arctic Oscillation) firmly establishes itself with deep troughs filled with increasingly bitter Arctic air centred from the UK eastwards to Germany.

FEBRUARY & MARCH

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html 

 

WOW!

---

Mark Vogan has issued his winter forecast,

UK TO FACE 3RD STRAIGHT WINTER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY, CRIPPLING SNOW AND SEVERE COLD, WORST OF WINTER CONTINENTWIDE TO BE CENTRED OVER SCANDINAVIA

DECEMBER

PERIOD BETWEEN DECEMBER 15-20TH HERALDS THE ONSET OF INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND COLDER WEATHER FROM OFF THE CONTINENT

JANUARY

The tough later part of December will set the stage for what may be a severe first 10 to 15 days of January as a strong NEGATIVE NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation & AO (Arctic Oscillation) firmly establishes itself with deep troughs filled with increasingly bitter Arctic air centred from the UK eastwards to Germany.

FEBRUARY & MARCH

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html 

 

WOW!

Then you listen to Alan Reppert of AccuWeather contradicts the above and then Net Weather talks about different blocking! What a difference that makes!?? - Nice forecast but no one has a scooby do init!? This is Alan Repperts forecast below:

 I

I would like Joe ******i's thoughts!!!? Anyone paid to access his forecast? Will the Met Office issue a winter forecast but not publish one!?

 

---

FEBRUARY & MARCH

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html 

I don't recall many return cold blasts in Feb / Mar this year?

---

FEBRUARY & MARCH

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html 

I don't recall many return cold blasts in Feb / Mar this year?

He must be refering to 2010 because I'm pretty sure I didn't even record a frost in Feb this year

---

FEBRUARY & MARCH

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html 

I don't recall many return cold blasts in Feb / Mar this year?

Apperently there was snow in March,

Much of the month brought settled weather to the UK, though it was more unsettled during the period 7th to 15th in the north (with disruption caused by snowy conditions across many parts of Scotland), and again more widely over the last two or three days of the month. Rainfall amounts were notably low over large parts of England, with a number of stations totalling less than 5 mm for the whole month.

Though I don't recall any snow at all in March here in Darlington and I suspect it will be the same for many away from Scotland

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/march.html

Febuary

A ‘westerly’ weather type prevailed for most of the month, bringing plenty of cloud and bands of rain or showers at times. There were some strong winds in the first week, especially across northern areas. Temperatures were generally near or above normal throughout and there were few frosts.

The UK mean temperature for the month was about 2.0 °C above the 1971–2000 average, and it was particularly mild in central England. It was the mildest February since 2002 and the ninth mildest in the last 100 years.

A snow depth of 10 cm was recorded at Copley (County Durham) at 0900 on the 19th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/february.html

*****is predicting a very cld December with notable snwfalls at the beginning and mid mnth (80% probability, so he has been taking lessons frm the met office).

 

Anyway if you want to view the video suggest you skip to 23rd minute:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGVzZvX4J6U

---

Just copying this post from the Model Output thread, since it encapsulates what I am thinking regarding the forthcoming winter:

I think the key to our winter this year lies to the east. As you know, I spend two weeks a month in Copenhagen and the autumn thus far has been decidedly chilly there.

The UK has spent much time under mild southerlies or sou-westerlies, because of the location and orientation of the Euro HP - but the presence of that persistent HP to our east provides the hope of some eastern promise during the forthcoming winter.

Last winter was characterised in its early stages, by frigid northerly incursions - this winter, if we want cold, I think we will have to look east.

 

 

---

Just copying this post from the Model Output thread, since it encapsulates what I am thinking regarding the forthcoming winter:

I think the key to our winter this year lies to the east. As you know, I spend two weeks a month in Copenhagen and the autumn thus far has been decidedly chilly there.

The UK has spent much time under mild southerlies or sou-westerlies, because of the location and orientation of the Euro HP - but the presence of that persistent HP to our east provides the hope of some eastern promise during the forthcoming winter.

Last winter was characterised in its early stages, by frigid northerly incursions - this winter, if we want cold, I think we will have to look east.

 

Strange what you say about Denmark, as Mike was saying in NOrway its been one the warmest to date autumns ever.

*****is predicting a very cold December with notable snowfalls at the beginning and mid month (80% probability, so he has been taking lessons from the met office).

Anyway if you want to view the video suggest you skip to 23rd minute:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGVzZvX4J6U

*****is a year to late lol with that prediction, there are some many different predictions out there you don't know how to believe.

*****is predicting a very cld December with notable snwfalls at the beginning and mid mnth (80% probability, so he has been taking lessons frm the met office).

 

Anyway if you want to view the video suggest you skip to 23rd minute:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGVzZvX4J6U

It's 24 minutes long?

---

*****is predicting a very cld December with notable snwfalls at the beginning and mid mnth (80% probability, so he has been taking lessons frm the met office).

 

Anyway if you want to view the video suggest you skip to 23rd minute:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGVzZvX4J6U

It's 24 minutes long?

Most of it is PR pap saying how brilliant *****is; the best forecaster in history, who always gets it right.

---

Posted in ENSO thread:

The way this is heading, the La nina will end up being weaker, than last year, with how the forecast members have flipped. The grey and blue ones are the new runs!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif 

I think we could be odds on for a major shift from very mild weather to very cold weather in the coming weeks. Watch this space. Something similar to November/December 1981. Looking in the archives, you would have never have guessed the December coming would be a record cold month. The pattern just suddenly shift. I don't know what you guys think.

I am not saying a repeat of last year of when the cold came early, but some forecasters are expecting the cold to come in the second part of winter. If this is the case, judging by the new cfs link above, I think the cold could come early as next month.

Posted in ENSO thread:

The way this is heading, the La nina will end up being weaker, than last year, with how the forecast members have flipped. The grey and blue ones are the new runs!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif

I think we could be odds on for a major shift from very mild weather to very cold weather in the coming weeks. Watch this space. Something similar to November/December 1981. Looking in the archives, you would have never have guessed the December coming would be a record cold month. The pattern just suddenly shift. I don't know what you guys think.

I am not saying a repeat of last year of when the cold came early, but some forecasters are expecting the cold to come in the second part of winter. If this is the case, judging by the new cfs link above, I think the cold could come early as next month.

HAve you noticed that all/many of the "an another forcasters" are going for very cold from mid december onwards.

Posted in ENSO thread:

The way this is heading, the La nina will end up being weaker, than last year, with how the forecast members have flipped. The grey and blue ones are the new runs!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif

I think we could be odds on for a major shift from very mild weather to very cold weather in the coming weeks. Watch this space. Something similar to November/December 1981. Looking in the archives, you would have never have guessed the December coming would be a record cold month. The pattern just suddenly shift. I don't know what you guys think.

I am not saying a repeat of last year of when the cold came early, but some forecasters are expecting the cold to come in the second part of winter. If this is the case, judging by the new cfs link above, I think the cold could come early as next month.

HAve you noticed that all/many of the "an another forcasters" are going for very cold from mid december onwards.

I suppose, yes. But the likes of GP on Net weather etc, seem to be very keen on the cold coming in 2012. Thinking about it, I do agree with you. 

No disrespect to him, but my opinion of him has dropped with his absolutly terrible summer forecast.

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html 

 

So, no snow and virtually no air frosts then in Feb and Mar

 

(anyone heard of Mark Vogan before?  )

---

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html 

 

So, no snow and virtually no air frosts then in Feb and Mar

 

(anyone heard of Mark Vogan before?  )

Typed him on Google and got links to Accuweather. So I guess he is part of the team. So, at least we can take him more seriously than Corbyn etc. I also heard JB is going for more cold for us this year. I can't remember where I heard this. I also heard that he is releasing a forecast?

(anyone heard of Mark Vogan before?  )

According to his own website, he is a truck driver from Northern Ireland, living in Scotland.

http://www.blogger.com/profile/06865244372982723622

---