I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

Ok your name is not mentioned.
Why do you thing Essan is referring to you.
Unless your name is mentioned please do not post stupid comments like this.
I should delete your post.
However I shall issue a warning, one more post like this and you will receive a ban.
Post on topic.

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

Originally Posted by: rayjp 

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Ok your name is not mentioned.
Why do you thing Essan is referring to you.
Unless your name is mentioned please do not post stupid comments like this.
I should delete your post.
However I shall issue a warning, one more post like this and you will receive a ban.
Post on topic.

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

The post was meant to be a joke. However, OK, I will try to refrain from the subtle humour / stupid comments

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

Originally Posted by: rayjp 

No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Ok your name is not mentioned.
Why do you thing Essan is referring to you.
Unless your name is mentioned please do not post stupid comments like this.
I should delete your post.
However I shall issue a warning, one more post like this and you will receive a ban.
Post on topic.

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

Blimey, that's harsh!  I thought this particular thread had a bit more leeway than the MO thread for humour etc!

I don't think a lot of people *get* YD's humour!

Back on topic....

I had a look at weatherunderground for the weather history in west yorkshire for 2009/2010, that year had similarly *mild* november conditions at this time and the run up to december and we all know what happened few days before x-mas ;-)

If the same comes off this year we will get persistant cold through to Feb...

GP on Netweather has added another post, well worth a read as alway's

This is not too far removed from last November's pattern except that the mean ridge is placed much further east this time and we are stuck on the 'wrong' side for cold.

Remembering also that the polar stratosphere is running anomalously cold right now, and the likely migration of the polar vortex towards the Canadian Arctic during December.

So in summary, the very strong mountain torque event and consequent sharp increase in tendency in relative angular momentum definately spices things up in the medium term, although I suspect the default troughing to our west and the developing ridge over Scandinavia will not be far off a return in December as the main feature of our weather.

Full post and pictures here

Exactly

Anyway, no sign of the Arctic Foxes coming down from the Herriard Pass yet so no sign of winter as far as nature is concerned

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

The CFS pressure charts look terrible for cold at the moment... but fear not, I've seen them hastily adding a bit of northern blocking at the last minute several times this year (particularly during the summer )

There is an interesting post on Netweather (from Lorenzo) that points out how NAO is dropping rapidly in the recent ESRL/PSD ensemble model output. Then he writes that our current MJO state, if extrapoloted (a dangerous game, assuming similar trends to times past), places us in a 2010 run of events only starting a month later on.

Perhaps January will be record breakingly cold

Yeah, we can all dream... its just a possibility, as are so many things in this world, like me owning a koenigsegg Agera R

GP certainly know's his stuff but his summer predictions were way off the mark especially for July, IIRC.

Seriously, how much times has that chart changed!

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry.

Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

Oh, now these are fun. Take a look at the October 2010 ones, which forecast December 2010 to be above - yes, above - average.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201010/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif 

I am sure there are other hilarious ones for other months

That's classic! I'm sure it's a totally random guess for each chart they come out with

Sorry the charts are only archived around the 13th of each month.

Anyone know when the Hadley winter season chart update takes placethis month.They went from below average in September to neutral/slight positive in October.If Novenbers update is as CFS I,ll be seriuously worried

They'll be updating any day now.

CFS probability temperature charts continue to move away from below normal to either above normal or normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Edit

I have found some CFS charts for last winter and Spring this year the below charts were updated on November 13th 2010

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

OK make it a fair comparison. Wait until the 13th of this month or use data from the 6th or 7th of Nov 2010' as the data change daily. As a scientist your analytical skills are flawed at best, biased and worse and generally unusable, sorry. Can I request that you post the data from earlier last November, preferably the 6th or 7th if those data are available?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

A scientist!  Sorry couldn't resist. 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I left out a comma, I meant that I am a scientist, but that wasn't actually clear in my post! My point was that without a proper analysis or a specific year on year comparison, an isolated chart from last year is far from a valid analytical tool. In other words it is posted to prove a point or agenda rather than a proper scientifically valid analysis. So, yes it shows that the CPC charts can get it right but we could post many other similar charts to show that they can often get it wrong and fluctuate wildly from one scenario to another.

Whilst i never trust them, I just had a lil look myself and found this http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201010/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif  

It seems the only archive charts are on the 12th or 13th of each month.

Although i have just noticed this http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201009/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif but before that it was this http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201008/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif and this http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201007/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

There does seem to be a lack of consistancy, but the months with the coldest anomalies always seemed to be October, November and December.