Terry Scholey is going for a clasic unsettled November;
November 2011 final update.
General Comments:
After an exceptionally mild start a changeable November is expected, with the second half probably colder and drier than the first. Wet spells should come in short bursts mostly during the first week, around mid-November and perhaps at the end. The mean average temperature should be close to or slightly above normal in the West and somewhat below average in the East. Confidence is only low to medium due to ‘blocking’ causing uncertainties as to how far Atlantic systems will penetrate.
Summary:
November 1st to 4th: Very mild perhaps exceptionally so at first, but unsettled and windy at times. There will be occasional rain or showers heaviest in the West where gales are possible, but also brighter or finer intervals giving some sunshine. Top temperatures should be between 11 and 16C, with minimum values in the range 7 to 12C so no frost.
November 5th to 7th: Becoming drier and brighter but somewhat colder, with a risk of ground frost at night. Some showers at first mostly in the South and East, with perhaps increasingly breezy unsettled weather moving into Ireland later. Lower temperatures that should see maximums in the range 7 to 12C and minimum values between 1 and 5C.
November 8th to 12th: Colder air to the East and milder air to the West probably ‘battle’ for supremacy. Some rain mostly over Ireland and in the West where it could also be windy for a while, but brighter spells are likely with only scattered showers. Relatively mild, with maximum temperatures 9 to 13C and minimum values say 4 to 7C. It should be drier and brighter at times in the East with occasional sunny spells, but it will not be entirely settled. There is a risk of showers and it should be colder here with top temperatures 7 to 10C and minimum values 0 to 4C giving ground frost in places.
November 13th to 18th: Probably a wet or blustery spell with some heavy rain in places. Milder for a time but perhaps not feeling so in the wind, before it perhaps turns much colder later with showers turning wintry in the North giving hill snow. Top temperatures about 9 to 13C falling to 5 to 8C, with minimum values in the range 6 to 9C then –1 to +2C giving widespread slight frost later.
November 19th to 22nd: A mainly dry, rather cold, quieter spell is indicated with generally light winds. There should be sunny spells but overnight freezing mist or fog patches could linger. Perhaps turning unsettled and windy in the North West later. Maximum temperatures 3 to 6C but perhaps only freezing where fog lingers, with minimum values –5 to 0C giving widespread slight or moderate frost.
November 23rd to 25th: Perhaps briefly blustery with rain and gales possible. The rain could be preceded by hill snow but it could be milder briefly, although not feeling so in the wind. Temperatures may reach 7 to 10C for a time, with minimum values in the range 2 to 5C making frost less likely.
November 26th to 30th: A return to much colder weather with wintry showers at first that could fall as snow even at lower levels. Some sunshine though for a time, but perhaps turning unsettled again from the West towards month end with some rain or showers perhaps preceded by snow in places. Top temperatures only 2 to 5C, with minimum values say –4 to 0C giving widespread frost.
31st October 2011 T.G.S.
Edited by user
01 November 2011 17:24:12
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Reason: Not specified
Rural West Northants 120m asl
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