GFS Op 0z - Sat 21st the ridge of HP splits, with Britain in the middle of the split;

      - Wed 25th, a trough moves into the gap, centres 990/995 mb Orkney and Cornwall.

       - Sat 28th,  the remains of the HP collect up 1035mb N Norway and the trough moves to Switzerland 1010mb with E-lies for Britain and a cold pool for the S.

        - Thu 2nd,  both HP and LP have moved W-wards and Britain is under a ridge of HP stretching S-wards from Iceland 1035mb

ECM - Wed 25th, the trough is further East, over Germany, HP still affecting Britain from Brittany 1030mb

      - Sat 28th, the HP is centred Britain 1025mb not Iceland and no cold pool

      - Thu 2nd, the HP has moved well to the west, to Mid-Atlantic, and LP 975mb is approaching Britain from the NW

AIFS - London, maxima 16C mid week, slowly dropping to the weekend, then 9-10C for next week, mostly dry and fine, a little rain Tuesdays 24th and 31st. Edinburgh, maxima 10-12C this week, 8-9C next week; more significant rain Mon 23rd and Fri 27th, often more cloudy than London.

GEFS - in the S mean  temp up to 7C above norm to Sat 21st,  in the N up to 3C above norm to Tue 24th, then everywhere close to norm for rest of month with ens members developing a spread from Tue 24th. Virtually no rain for the rest of March, perhaps a little in the west next week

😂 Yes - I noticed the same - and the runs before ended with an 80s style late rear guard winter plunge - the type of which once caressed the spring flowers with that crystalline spring snow we used to get, only to vanish in the spring sunshine by 10.30am. 

GFS Op - to Sun 22nd as above

- Mon 23rd to Fri 27th, HP never far from W Britain but troughs from Iceland diving SE-wards into the N Sea often 995mb

- Sar 28th to Fri 3rd, weak ridge HP returns to Scotland while England is affected by E-lies from LP to the south, at first 995mb Italy, later 980mb Portugal

ECM - 

- Mon 23rd to Fri 27th, like GFS but HP closer and troughs weaker

- Sat 28th to Fri 3rd, HP develops much more strongly, centre 1030-1040mb Ireland and covering all of Britain.

AIFS - London, maxima 16C now declining to 10C Tue 26th to Sun 29th with, a little rain at that time, then back to 15C. Edinburgh, broadly similar to London though with more day-to-day variability, top maxima around 13C , cooler period about 8C.

GEFS - in the S, mean temp and ens dropping to norm by Mon 23rd, below norm for a couple of days, then mostly near norm with limited spread of ens members, chances of rain after 23rd, most likely in the east for once. In the N, similar timing but very mild over the weekend before dropping, and rain more likely in the west.

GFS - HP ca 1035 mb west of or over Ireland through to Sat 4th April, Disturbed weather on its edges;  cool N-lies affecting N Sea coasts Wed 25th and to a lesser extent Mon 30th with pressure dropping over Scandinavia. Finally that Scandi LP moves down to S Europe with E-lies through the Channel.

ECM - as GFS to 28th  but disturbance from LP Wed 25th affects more of Britain with stronger N-lies; and a very weak trough gets embedded in the HP over Britain Sat 28th. After that, the standard W-lies resume slowly going round NW-ly as HP revives from the SW 

AIFS - London. maxima 13-15C to Wed 25th, then 9-10C to Sun 4h with a little rain occasionally in that second week. 2 o3 cold nights, gardeners beware! Edinburgh, mostly 9-10C, a little milder at first, rain often during Tue 24th-31st, sunny to start and finish,

GEFS - mean temp drops to norm Sat 21st (gradually in S, down with a bump in N) and stays there or a little below through to Sat 4th but more variable day to day in N; ens members balanced on either side of mean. Some chances of a little rain after Tue 24th esp in E and N

GFS Op 0Z - keeps the LP on the 24th further north before it dips SE-wards into the N Sea with N-lies  for E Britain Thu 26th. HP rebuilds slowly from the SW, becoming centred E Scotland 1035mb Mon 30th. The HP moves towards the Norwegian coast and by Sat 4th S England has quite strong E-lies (not cold as no link to Arctic airflow affecting Russia)

ECM - compared to GFS, the LP on the 26th  dips SE-wards over Britain itself with N/NW-lies for all. From then onwards there's little sign of HP with depressions approaching the NW (Mon 30th 970mb Rockall with NW-lies, Thu 2nd near Greenland 955mb with SW-lies incorporating returning Polar Maritime). HP on Sat 4th is 1040mb near Spitzbergen and of little effect on Britain.

Agreement between these two models for a week, then wide divergence.

AIFS - London, maxima 12C to Tue 24th and dry, maxima 9C to Sun 29th and damp, maxima 16C rising to 20C Fri 3rd and sunny. Edinburgh, same pattern as London but 2 or 3C cooler after 24th.

GEFS - mean temp and ens hanging on a little above norm to Wed 25th, the a dip to cool but mean recovering to norm as ens members spread out through to Sun 5th, chances of a little rain from 25th onwards in the E, rather more in the W and one or two ens members with big totals in the SW

GFS Op 0z - takes the above LP away quickly with HP building back from the SW and mostly staying around to Mon 6th when 1030mb covering Britain (a couple of hiccups - small trough running S-wards down the W coast Sat 28th, and some influence from LP near Greenland with a brief spell of SW-lies Fri 3rd)

ECM - like GFS but the HP builds back more strongly and does not suffer 'hiccups', consistently above 1030mb C or N Britain; from Thu 2nd definitely further north (1050mb Iceland) with E-lies for S England.

AIFS - London, max 12-14C and dry to Tue 24th, then cooler 8-10C with a little rain to Sun 29th, then dry and sunny to Sun 4th reaching 17C Wed 1st but cooling again. Edinburgh, maxima 10-12C to Tue 24th, a wet couple of days and Maxima lower ca 8C to Sun 29th, rain persisting; then as London,  mild at first, cooler later, but dry - and some frosty nights.

GEFS - temp near norm or above at first, down sharply to 5C below norm Wed 25th - Fri 27th, recovering just as quickly and mean temp staying near norm but with poor agreement from ens members from 27th esp in S (in the S, op up to 8C above, control down to 6C below but in the N only 3 or 4C above and below). In the S, trivial amounts of rain in some runs from 25th, in the N, rather more rain 24th-29th esp in NW.

Thanks noted and appreciated.

It's almost like we are entering another dry spell after a wet winter. I've been watering pots this afternoon which are drying out fast. 

Looking forward:

Looks like we have a lovely extended period of dry anticyclonic weather coming up ala 2023. Dry and bright early/mid spring… Suits me fine thanks very much!! Many people still depressed after one of the grimmest UK winters in late living memory.

A tad windy late month and then back to calm and sunny.

GFS Op 0z - takes the LP Thu 26th off to the NE and pressure rises over Britain for a while but another LP 970mb Norwegian Sea brings the NW-lies back Tue 31st (and direct N-lies to follow) Full-on HP cell then returns to Britain, reaching 1035mb  Tue 7th.

ECM - differs from GFS after Tue 31st when that LP is further north and Britain on the fringes has only light NW-lies. The HP then fails to develop over Britain; at first present as a weak ridge but by Tue 7th the HP cell is centred N Baltic 1045mb with brisk S/SE-lies for Britain. 

AIFS - London, 12-13C at first, then Wed 23rd - Sun 29th cooler at 9-10C with a little rain, finishing with maxima 12-15C, dry and sunny with cold nights to Sun 5th. Edinburgh, less easily summarised but maxima around 10C, a little cooler and sometimes wet for w/b Tue 22nd, drier later but mostly cloudy so no cold nights.

GEFS - present mild temps drop abruptly to 6 or 7C below norm Fri 25th - Sun 29th, Mean temp then goes back to norm to Sun 5th, more variable in Scotland,  but both op (and control in S) 7 or 8C below norm balanced by the majority of ens members a degree or two above. Some rain Sun 29th in SE (where very little at other dates) other parts of country have rain from Tue 24th - Sun 29th, heavy in NW.

Don't look at the latest GFS then 😜

Come to think of it, with my 50th around Easter, I'm not sure what I'd prefer.

GFS Op 0z - the second LP (see FAX) follows the first but the N-ly plunge is further east, hitting Denmark Tue 31st, while HP revives over Britain 1035mb . But this HP moves NW to Greenland 1055mb Sat 4th, and at the same time pressure drops over the Baltic bringing increasingly cold NE-lies to Britain with gales for SE England in the circulation of an LP which by Tue 7th has moved SW-wards to S France 990mb.

ECM - the first N-ly plunge on Wed 25th affects mainly N Sea coasts, not W Britain, but the second is like GFS affecting Denmark.  The subsequent rise of pressure is treated quite differently, developing more slowly (by Thu 2nd, not the 31st) and staying over S England/N France through to Tue 7th (not Greenland). Between 2nd and 7th there are W-lies for Britain, often quite strong over Scotland esp Mon 6th as small LP scoots across Faeroes.

Easter weekend could either be bright and breezy (ECM) or bitterly cold and cloudy bar NW Scotland (GFS). Take your pick!

AIFS - London maxima about 10C, occasionally above, to Fri 3rd, then colder  with strong N-lies for Easter at 5C. Rain at intervals, most likely dry around Tue 31st. Edinburgh, Maxima variable but mostly 8-10C to Fri 3rd then 5-6 C, rain quite frequent, short dry interlude around Fri 3rd.

GEFS - mean temp and ens members agree on two periods of cold weather Thu 26th and Sun 29th, back to norm between. After Wed 1st mean stays near norm but big spread of ens members, op and control both dropping to 8C below norm. Small amounts of rain from time to time, most likely wed 25th and Tue 29th, falling as snow in the Highlands esp on 25th.

Oh not again.

(That concludes my comment on the MO.)

I think the stats show that there’s more chance of a white Easter than a white Christmas, but that may be changing to no chance of either…

GFS Op 0z - the 2nd N-ly plunge on FAX is shown much weaker here, and the HP then moves in 1040mb N Ireland Wed 1st. This HP meanders around Britain but still the dominant feature 1025mb E Anglia Tue 7th (NB dramatically different from yesterday's predicted NE-lies!). It then drifts off SE-wards and by Thu 9th SW-lies are re-establishing.

ECM - like GFS to start with but the HP heads N-wards to Iceland Thu 2nd, and the LP from that 2nd plunge (which has stayed around the Baltic) then brings in strong cold NE-lies for the start of the Easter weekend. Pressure then rises over Scandinavia and drops over the Atlantic so the cold air is chased away by SW-lies Mon 6th. 

GFS and ECM forecasts for the Easter weekend have changed places since yesterday!

AIFS - London, maxima 8C now, rising to 15C Wed 1st with a little rain at first; the a drop to 10C before rising again, dry and sunny for Easter and beyond. Edinburgh, again a rising trend to Wed 1st but from 7C to 12C with a little rain; then a brief dry couple of days to start Easter, from Mon 6th wet with maxima ca 8C.

Yet more outcomes for Easter to choose from

GEFS - a couple of dips to well below norm Thu 26th and Sun 29th , both mean temp and ens members, with a little rain on those dates (tendency for rain in N on the first date, in the S on second date). Then mean above norm to Thu 9th with increasing ens spread (op becoming especially mild 10C above norm) and dry, though some ens members showing some rain for the N from Mon 6th.

Bring it on Matty. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Depends on which model you look at, and when you look at it - today it's GFS raising spirits for Easter, and ECM playing Grinch. Yesterday it was the other way round.

Cold or mild, one thing we should have learned in this last decade is that whatever is spent on super computing power the resulting forecasts are no more accurate at 10 days onwards than they ever were, as today's charts illustrate.

GFS Op 0z - agrees with Fax, then pressure rises from the SW with centre 1035mb in the SW Approaches Tue 31st, but moving N to Iceland by Sat 4th, bringing cold air in from the NE, then E, over the Easter weekend. The HP returns Thu 9th as a ridge S from Iceland and the NE-lies retreat to C Europe.

ECM - misses out on the LP on the 29th (see FAX) as HP is already developing in the SW. This HP does not extend to Iceland but extends a weak ridge to the N Sea with mild SW-lies for the Easter weekend (rather breezy, maybe cloudy, in NW Scotland). Little change after Easter;  by Thu 9th the HP is 1040mb Baltic holding off Atlantic LPs and generating mild S-lies for Britain.

Forecast for Easter? GFS Op and ECM have both reversed their positions again, now the former is cold and wet and the latter mild and dry!

AIFS - London, maxima about 10C to Mon 30th (some rain, some sun for Easter), then milder  but cloudy at about 13C for the following week and dry, sun comes out Mon 6th. Edinburgh, maxima 8-10C to Mon 30th then up and down but generally milder, rain on most days, getting heavier from 30th.

GEFS - some 5C below norm Thu 26th and, separately, Sun 29th, then 3 or 4C above norm to Thu 2nd  (and a couple of days longer in SW, shorter in N)) after which ens agreement breaks up, mean stays near norm (op and control bitterly cold over Easter weekend, not quite as bad in N). A little rain 26th and 28th, and in some runs after Sat 4th esp in N, else dry.