GFS Op - makes less of the first two LPs above, which only affect Scotland to any extent, while building HP from the SW reaching its maximum 1030mb Cornwall Wed 1st. This builds a ridge to Norway (not Iceland as shown yesterday) and this ridge just about manages to hold on for the Easter weekend between LPs 970mb Greenland and 1005mb Baltic with mainly S-ly winds. From later on Easter Monday the Atlantic moves in and from Tue 7th Britain is sandwiched between LP NW of Ireland and HP by then in the Baltic with S-lies persisting.

ECM - differs from GFS from Wed 1st as HP never really takes hold; LP 985mb Fri 3rd off W Scotland, first extending across Scotland and then settling in the N Sea 975mb Thu 9th combined with HP over S France generates a period of strong winds from points between SW and NW. Looks bright and breezy for S England for the Easter weekend , but unsettled in the north.

AIFS - London, maxima rising a little from 9C now to 12C Sat 4th with a little rain from time to time; then down to 8-9C with more significant rain for the Easter weekend and beyond to Thu 9th. Edinburgh, maxima 8-10C to Sat 4th again dropping, to 6-8C, for Easter. Rain frequent (brief burst of warmth and dry Wed 1st). A poor forecast compared to yesterday

GEFS - cool now and again on Sun 29th, milder with rain between; then mild to Wed 1st, good ens agreement to that point, after which mean temp remains a little above norm in S, near norm in N, in the middle of a cloud of outcomes from individual runs. No major outliers; perhaps some rain Mon 6th, earlier and more likely for places in N & W.

The models continue to change daily for any period more than 5 days ahead

GFS Op 0z - writes off the last of the last of the LPs in FAX,, and concentrates on HP building to the SW, 1030mb by Wed 1st. This HP retreats for the Easter weekend (of course!) with LP crossing S Scotland 990mb Fri 3rd and Shetland 980mb Tue 7th but some possibly fine weather esp for the S under brisk W-lies for Easter Sat & Sun. The HP is back 1030mb covering Britain Fri 10th and ridging to the NE later.

ECM - makes even less of the LPs shown in FAX; by Tue 31st there is a large HP just to the SW which ridges across Britain from mid-Atlantic to Norway  by Sat 4th ( a bit of a NE-ly for England earlier in the week). The ridge strengthens over Easter and persists to Wed 8th. This HP then moves to Norway allowing cooler E-lies to affect Britain; later (Sat 11th) turning to SE-ly as a depression moves past Cornwall to France.

AIFS - London, maxima 10C to Tue 31st then 12C over Easter, cooling later; a little light rain from time to time over Easter, heavier from Thu 9th (contradicts GFS). Edinburgh, cool (7C) with some rain for a few days, milder (12C) and drier for middle of next week, back to 7C and more rain for Easter weekend, milder after heavy rain on Wed 8th.

GEFS - for the S, cool for now, a little above norm around Wed 1st, dipping Fri 3rd, all with good ens agreement, then mean 2 or 3 C above norm but a big spread of ens members, op & control among the coldest. Rain in many ens members from Fri 3rd. In Scotland, temps are flattened out (only norm Wed 1st, less dip Fri 3rd, mean near norm after that), rain in most ens members after Wed 1st 

Still no certainty over the Easter weekend, GFS for the pessimists, ECM for the optimists, AIFS for those who like to back it both ways.

GFS Op 0z - discounts the last LP from FAX but adds another Thu 2nd with trough dipping as far S as N England. For the Easter weekend Britain is sandwiched between LP to the N and HP to the S with strong SW-lies and the most settled weather in S England. Pressure then rises over Britain and with a few false starts  develops a persistent broad ridge lying W-E at 1038mb.

ECM - For the coming week ECM has higher pressure to the SW keeping unsettled weather away to the N, but on Sat 4th a trough moves in from the NW deepening 975mb off NW Scotland Sun 5th, so converging on the GFS forecast for the Easter weekend . Recovery is quicker as by Mon 6th HP dominates SE England and only NW Scotland looks unsettled.  The same broad ridge of HP then develops but a little further S so Scotland gets brisk W-lies at times.

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 13C Wed 1st, falling to 10C with rain frequent from Fri 3rd to Thu 9th then drier and warmer again. Edinburgh, much as London except that maxima 3rd-9th are more like 6Cfor the coming week this model has more extensive 

GEFS - mean temp rising to norm for Wed 1st with ens support; mean and most ens members a degree or two above norm in S, closer to norm in N, from Sun 5th to 13th, small amounts of rain at any time from now to 13th in the S (traditional April showers?) but more persistent in N & W from Wed 1st onwards.

For the Easter weekend, looking ever more likely to be feeling cool in SW-ly winds even if temps close to norm, and light rain or showers blowing in from the Atlantic affecting principally N & W areas easing somewhat by Monday. Still not a final verdict.

FAX - LPs near Iceland pushing fronts across Britain on W-lies for this week (and likely some showers for W Coasts, given the pressure/wind combination); 979mb Mon, 977mb Wed, 979mb Thu, but the effect of the one on Wed minimised by HP temporarily spreading from the SW.

GFS Op 0z - unlike FAX, only keeps an effective HP to the SW to Tuesday, a minor trough 1010mb for N Britain Wed 1st, then the Atlantic gathers force at the end of the week and LP passes over the Borders 965mb Easter Saturday with unsettled weather for all. A secondary LP develops in its circulation with a dollop (technical term 😊) of rather cold air from Greenland passing Cornwall 985mb Easter Mon/Tue. This cold air is only dispersed Fri 10th by the re-appearance of W-lies generated by LP 965mb Iceland. That LP fills and sinks S-wards across Britain 1010mb Mon 13th.

ECM - offers the best weather for Easter, HP from the SW develops early (Wed 1st) and persists (apart from a break on Easter Sunday and a bit of Monday) for all of Britain except the far north, no sign of cold air from Greenland. By Thu 9th the HP is centred 1030mb England and stays there or over the near continent to Mon 13th. 

**NOTE with the clocks going forward, full download of ECM does not occur until 0900 BST, and I will not always have time to wait for that to appear **

AIFS - London maxima 10-12 C (a burst of warmth 18C, one day only Tue 7th), rain for the Easter weekend and also Fri/Sat 10th/11th. Edinburgh, maxima up to 13C Wed 11th, down to 7C for the Easter weekend, 9-10C thereafter, rain on most days (briefly dry around Wed 1st)

GEFS - in the S, mean and ens near norm to Fri 3rd, mean picking up after the weekend to about 3C above norm with a very wide spread of ens outcomes, many incl control very mild but op very cold at times, rain from Fri 3rd onwards, heavy for the first few days esp in W. In Scotland and N England, mean only just reaches norm before dipping well below and only slowly recovering to norm by Tue 7th and not becoming milder. The ens spread is there as are the variations in op & control. Rain from Wed 1st, not heavy but persistent.

Doesn’t tie in with the current MetO thoughts. Not so good for the NW, but that’s often the case any time of the year

GFS Op 0z - slower to bring on the LP (Sat 4th 985mb W Scotland) but ushers in a cool and unsettled Easter weekend  with W/NW air flow though the SE escapes the worst of this until later on Mon 6th. The chart for 12z on the 6th is quite dramatic, a dartboard low 950mb (if I can count isobars correctly) just west of Ireland, stormy in the west and S-ly gales everywhere else. This LP moves past NW Scotland and on to Shetland and until Fri 10th Britain is under W-lies, slowly losing their force (as usual at their worst in the NW, could be quite pleasant in the SE). A brief spell of undefined LP for a couple of days, then HP 1030mb settles over the N Sea Wed 15th with fine and mild weather for all.

ECM - places the LP Sat 4th 980mb north of Scotland so weather likely to be cool and showery in the north, mild and breezy in the south. Then the deep LP appears also ca 950mb but further out in the Atlantic only affecting NW Scotland as it brushes past on Tue 7th. Then the W-lies set in as per GFS. [at time of posting chart not available beyond Thu 9th i.e. T+240 - see yesterday's note about chart unavailable until 0900 now BST has started, and today I have to go out before that]

AIFS - London, maxima 11-13C through to Mon 13th, brief burst of warmth Tue 7th when dry and sunny, otherwise mixed weather with a little rain most likely Easter Sat/Sun 4th/5th and again Fri/Sat 10th/11th. Edinburgh, mild this week (ca 13C), cool 6-7C for the Easter weekend, then rather variable but not far from 10C to the 13th. Rain on and off from Fri 3rd for a week.

GEFS - In the S from cool now to mean temp mostly near norm to Wed 15th, a couple of brief milder interludes Sat 4th and Tue 7th, most ens members grouped around the mean though warmer outliers appear later. Rain in small amounts in SE, large amounts in SW, from Sat 4th, not much at first, more persistent later. In the N, temp pattern similar but those milder interludes much less noticeable and fewer warm outliers later. Rain sets in Fri 3rd and persists, pretty well continuous in the W, a few drier intervals in the east

Easter still in the balance between cool and showery W-lies [GFS} and milder and drier at least away from the NW [ECM] - all depends on how close an active Atlantic gets

GFS Op 0z - like FAX, if anything LP track is further to NW, brief lull on Sunday, then deep LP (as shown yesterday) Mon 6th 955mb off W Ireland with S-ly gales for Britain, moving to Iceland and then for the week  to Mon 13th keeping strong W-lies for the whole country. New LP then crosses S Scotland 975mb Tue 14th, maybe a brief ridge of HP to follow.

ECM [to Fri 10th] - not much in the way of LP until Sun 5th (contrast with GFS) then 970mb NW Scotland , not affecting the far SE, followed by the dartboard LP as in GFS on Mon 6th. which also moves to Iceland and initiates a period of W-ly winds. EDIT Copies GFS after the 6th, through to 13th, then the new LP is less deep but further south into the Midlands.

Easter weekend; breezy everywhere and feeling cool in the wind. W-lies imply showers for W coasts but higher pressure in the SE suggests sunny periods there.

AIFS - London, maxima in the 12-15C range, cooler Fri 3rd and around Sun 12th, sunshine and ight showers  but heavier rain Sun 12th heralds a drier period. Edinburgh, mild nd dry for a couple of days, then from Fri 3rd maxima 8-10C cloudy with frequent heavy rain, briefly drier and brighter Sun 12th.

GEFS - in the S, mean temp near norm with a couple of mild interludes Sat 4th and Tue 7th (4-5C above norm); after that most ens members a little below norm, mean propped up by several milder runs. No significant rain until 7th then some appearing in various ens members., heavier in SW. In the N, an alternative pattern with mean near norm except for two much cooler interludes, 5 or 6 C below norm Thu 2nd and Mon 6th. Rain in some ens member or another on most days from Thu 2nd onwards, notably heavy in W.

These threads usually always stretch to around 50 pages before Brian decides to start a new one. it's just that some of these threads take longer than others to get to that point depending on how busy they are. At the moment, this is a very quiet period for this particular and in periods like that, these threads can last for so long that whatever Brian uses as the sub-heading when he first starts these threads, may no longer be relevant by the time that we get to the end of them.

In these circumstances, perhaps Brian could update the sub-headings on these threads every now and then in order to ensure that they remain relevant to what's happening just now, although it's up to Brian at the end of the day to decide whether he wants to do that or not.

Anyway, trying to keep things alive in here, the generally Atlantic-driven maritime-type outlook prevails for the foreseeable. Sure, some half decent spring-like weather can still be expected, especially the further south we go at the British Isles where scant rainfall are likely, but those dry bright spells looks quite fleeting before the next weather front move in. The only crumb of comfort I might be able to derive is unsettled/changeable Springs do tend to be followed by warm dry summers, conversely Springs containing persistent north easterlies associated with northern blocking tend to be followed by below par Summers.

I hope people aren't regarding the daily review of charts as the final word on weather for that day - amendments and even contradiction are always welcome, not to mention input from models such as, say, Arpege, because I don't have time to look at everything

We may actually finally get an Easterly looking at the latest GFS run. Not much sign of any particularly warm weather in the first half of April based on current output.

One of his best ones.

GFS Op 0z - plays down the LP Fri 3rd, just a weak trough in the far N, but deepens the second later on the 4th to 965mb Cape Wrath before a ridge of HP takes over for all of Britain on Mon 6th. The very deep LP on the Atlantic referred to in previous reviews is still there on Mon but further off, with strong S-lies for Britain. Only on Thu 9th does it project a trough across Britain, and quite weak by then. For the remainder of the period to Fri 17th Hp sits in mid-Atlantic just too far off to prevent weak but persistent troughs sliding SE-wards across Britain, bringing some rather cold air with them.

ECM (to T+240) - good agreement with GFS

AIFS - London, maxima mostly 13C-ish (one-day blast of warmth Tue 7th), mostly sunny and dry to Thu 9th when maxima drop to 9C-ish with rain, recovering from Mon 12th, Edinburgh, maxima variable but around 10C to Thu 9th when, as London, cooler for that weekend before recovering. However rain is forecast for most days through to Mon 13th.

GEFS - in the S, mean temp well supported by ens members near norm to to Fri 17th but with two much milder periods, Sat 4th and Tue 7th. Some rain in many ens members from Wed 8th onwards. In Scotland mean and ens temps down-up-down-up-down-up, a day at a time to Tue 7th (similar but less amplified in England from Midlands N-wards) then settling to norm. Frequent rain throughout  ( a possible dry day on Mon 6th, rain in N England not setting in until later), snow likely in N & W Scotland on the cooler days in the period to the 7th.

That could happen.

Even if there isn't an SSW during the winter, there is usually always a final warming of the stratosphere at around this time of the year anyway as we approach the coming summer. That is still in the same manner, likely to result in a blocking high establishing itself to our north and as a result, easterlies usually occur more often in the spring months on average than at any other time of the year, especially as we head further into April and then into May.

The big issue with that though, is that everything is now warming up as the Sun gains strength and this means that even if we get an easterly, it's probably not all that likely to be cold. Because of that, an easterly just now might bring some of the best weather of the entire year to places such as the NW Highlands and the far west of Scotland where I'm sure that they will welcome a break in the recent wet weather.

With SSTs still being relatively low though, that would probably bring a lot of haar and low cloud to here on the east coast which would also be a lot cooler as a result. For that reason, an easterly isn't exactly something which I would be looking forward to now and the good thing about the more westerly regime which we experienced in March is that this hasn't really been an issue until now as we haven't been getting those easterlies which we might typically expect to get.

Yes, very good, with a liberal sprinkling of technobabble thrown in.

1. Spot trends

2. See how the data sets are skewed

3. Filter out outliers. By default, only the 10th–90th percentiles are plotted, but you can turn this off to include all runs.

You can mouse over, zoom, change chart size and filter by time step.

https://two.local/twodata/ens-cs.aspx 

GFS Op 0z - As FAX to Mon; the S-lies don't last; although that deep LP heads for Iceland it leaves a trough with cool NW-lies drifting around Britain to Thu 9th, only to be replaced by another active LP ca 975mb crossing N England Fri/Sat 10th/11th. That in turn gives way to yet another LP 975mb W Scotland Tue 14th which expands to cover Britain although filling 1005mb Thu 16th. A rather unsettled period; make the most of Easter Monday!

ECM - very much like GFS; but the LP Sat 10th is further north, over N Scotland, but then splits off a secondary with travels SE to Belgium 1005 mb Sun 12th. [That's as far as it goes at 0800 -  I may update later] 

AIFS - London, from a base of 13C, maxima shoot up to 20C Tue/Wed 7th/8th before dipping to 8C Sat 11th/Sun 12th then resuming. Sunny and mostly dry to 8th, then cloudy and damp. Edinburgh, same pattern of maxima as London, but the base is 10C, the peak is 16C and the dip 7C.  Rain likely on most days except a brief dry slot Mon/Tue 6th/7th.

GEFS - In the S, two bursts of mild weather, Sat 4th  (4C above norm) and Tue 7th (7C above) otherwise mean near norm, well supported by ens members; rain on most days in most runs after Wed 8th, heavier in SW. In Scotland and N England, only the 7th is really warm, indeed dipping to 5C below norm on 6th (BIG contrast 6th/7th!). Rain 3rd and 5th esp in Scotland, and then continual from Wed 8th, definitely heavy in NW. 

GFS Op 0z - copies FAX above, From Tue 7th to Mon 13th a ridge of HP just about hangs on through the N Sea but keeps being weakened by LP approaching from the NW. Finally Tue 14th small LP runs across N Scotland, followed by a general rise of pressure to 1030mb Fri 17th. Again this  looks fragile with a W-ly flow soon after. But a very different picture from the persistent troughs dipping down from Iceland, as shown yesterday.

ECM - agrees generally with GFS but the ridge of HP in the N Sea is not just hanging on but disrupted by LP from the NW Sat 11th, re-forms, and then disrupted again on Mon 13th

AIFS - London, maxima 14C now and a little rain but from Mon 7th becoming sunny and very warm(22C) Wed 8th. Back to 12C and damp for the weekend of Sat 11th, rising over the following week to 15C, sunny and dry. Edinburgh, maxima mostly around 10C and rain on most days but dry and mild (16C) Mon 6th - Wed 8th 

GEFS - in the S, cool (3C below norm) Mon 6th then very mild (8c above) around Wed 8th, then mean temp back to norm and staying there to Sun 19th with moderately good ens support. Damp now, some rain from Thu 9th onwards. In Scotland, similar but heavy rain Sun 5th (snow likely in N & W), not just damp. 

GFS Op - As FAX above. Then Britain settles into a persistent col between HP 1035mb Norway and 1040mb Atlantic to Sun 12th. At that point the HP centres move further apart and allow LP to move in from the NW, weakly at first, deeper LP 980mb passing N of Scotland Fri 17th before the col resumes Sun 19th.

ECM - similar to GFS (pressure higher at first suggests that fronts mentioned under FAX may be held clear of W coasts) UPDATE at 0900 - the col hangs on after Sun 12th, but is positioned further north, so E-lies and occasionally small areas of LP affect S England through to Sat 18th

AIFS- London, dry and sunny, maxima increasing to 22C Wed 8th and after a slight drop, to 20C on Sat 11th. Then down to 12C with frequent rain. Edinburgh, rain and maxima 6-8C at first; the peak warmth occurs on Tue 7th (15C) and Mon 13th (12C), dry and sunny at these times but otherwise rain and maxima 6-9C. A fairly good match with GFS.

GEFS - temp dipping to cool Sun 6th then a monster rise to 10C above norm Wed 8th, soon dropping back with mean temp and most ens members near norm to Mon 20th. A few ens members prolong the pulse of warmth to Fri 10th and in Scotland and N England this shows up as a  second, lesser peak on Sat 11th. For Scotland, a peak of heavy rain this weekend but otherwise generally rather small amounts of rain after the 8th, though rather more in W.  Snow row figures across Scotland tonight near or above 30/33, but only 5s and 6s south of the Border.

It certainly currently looks glorious for early April for a day or two (depending where in the country you live of course!)

Current output has max around 21c for Tuesday with Cheltenham/ South East Wales area the sweet spot.

Then Wednesday central London has 23c as the Max.