Why would anyone want to waste 20 days of Spring? No thanks, and thankfully, about as likely as the relentless snow at day ten projections of the last 3 winters 

GFS Op 0z - the W/SW procession continues to Sat 14th, unsettled in the N, fair weather in the S; but note Fri 6th when a trough dips further south than the general run, and the week beginning Mon 8th when pressure is quite high near the SE.

ECM - much as GFS but with LP further away (except Mon 2nd, LP near Hebrides) and pressure always tending to be higher in the SE (but less so than this model showed yesterday)

On this model output, snow hopers should now go into aestivation. ("prolonged torpor or dormancy of an insect, fish, or amphibian during a hot or dry period.")

AIFS - London, maxima either side of 10C to Fri 6th, cloudy with a little rain, then 10-12C day, very sunny, but 0C night.  Edinburgh, much more variable with maxima irregularly either side of 8C and more frequent (though not heavy) rain, signs of the sunny weather appearing from Mon 9th.

GEFS - temps dipping to norm this weekend, then a long period with  mean and most ens members a little above norm;2 or3 very cold outliers popping up (?down) 6th, 10th and 14th). Very dry in S & E, some rain but not heavy in SW, rather more in far NW.

Reservoir levels in January 2025 were very comparable to what they are now, and by late summer we had a hosepipe ban.

For reservoir level data for Kent and S. London for the past few years see https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/698c7981bd090be481c28772/Kent_and_South_London_Water_Situation_Report_January_2026.pdf

The words 'Maybe' and 'I wonder' in my original post indicate that I was speculating on possibilities based on previous experience and my observation about a two-season climate.

This morning's GEFS 00z London chart continues to show very little rain in its forecast period. 

No thanks 😂

ECM looks very warm for the south next week.  The Merkelslug is hard to shift once it sets up

I suffer quite badly with spring hayfever ( tree pollen) weeks like currently are the start of it, so miserable and wet or an early spring cold spell I'm all in favour of! 

Indeed, not enough reservoirs and not allowing for increased development are the twin causes which lie behind this.

Groundwater reserves can only do so much, and unlike other areas, Kent has only the North Downs, a relatively narrow band of chalk compared to the southwest to draw on.

FAX - LP somewhere between/near Scotland and Iceland through the weekend with troughs and fronts crossing Britain; general rise of pressure on Tue 3rd but some decaying fronts so could still be cloudy.

GFS Op 0z - that HP develops 1030mb over Scotland later on the 3rd, but slowly drifts off to the SE before returning  a week later (a brief interlude with strong SW-lies Sun 8th) 1035mb Tue 10th. Then the pattern repeats - HP off to the SE and disturbed weather from the SW Sun 15th.

ECM - the HP hangs on in W Europe and the SW-lies on the 8th only affect NW Scotland while pressure remains high in SE England. The area of HP, as in GFS, is back in force 1030mb Tue 10th, but then, although one HP cell moves away to the SE, it is replaced by another from the SW and unlike GFS is centred over Shetland 1030mb Sat 14th

AIFS - London, maxima more irregular than yesterday at first either side of 10C, drifting lower to 5C Wed 11th; also more rain; significant amounts now and ca Wed 11th, not entirely dry at other times. Edinburgh, similar to London but maxima a couple of degrees lower and some frosty nights w/e Sat 7th, rain less than London but similar timings. No sign in either location of a very sunny week in a week's time as shown yesterday, and contrary to models above.

GEFS - temp dip to norm or just below Sun 1st then  above norm for a week dropping slowly, quite good ens agreement but a persistent small number of cold outliers. More variation in the north, sometimes well above norm, then back again, Very little rain generally but always a bit more in the west.

I reckon the same when no-one comments after my review of the charts. Let's see if that happens again today ...

FAX - starts with Atlantic LP pushing fronts and a deeper trough on Mon before pressure rises over Scotland on Tue. The HP retreats to the N Sea on Wed allowing winds to freshen from the S/SW.

GFS Op 0z - the above HP stalls a trough over the west coast before further HP arrives from the SW Sat 7th. Then a repeat as the HP drifts SE-wards and a trough affects the northwest Thu 12th. Finally a standoff Mon 16th between HP 1030mb Baltic and LP 940mb Rockall, strong S-lies, the cool and unsettled weather in the west looks as if it's winning.

ECM - As GFS at first but after Sat 7th the HP hangs on with ridge from E Europe to Scotland, still in place Sun 15th with SE-lies for Britain, becoming rather brisk in the SE as Atlantic troughs run SE-wards to Portugal (and only 980mb not 940mb). In this model the more settled weather in the NE is winning.

AIFS - London, maxima 10-12C, bar a dip next weekend (with a frost overnight), often cloudy, trivial amounts of rain from time to time. Edinburgh, maxima 8-10C, more sunshine and much bigger diurnal ranges than London but again small amounts of rain occasionally.

GEFS - after this weekend mild (3-4C above norm) to Sat 7th with good ens agreement (but dips to norm in north briefly Tue 3rd), then mean near norm with increasing ens spread but fewer cold outliers than previous charts. Trivial amounts of rain in the E and not in every run either, rather more in the W esp after the 7th

Could hit 20C  next weekend and then after that high pressure in control.  Yes Spring has Sprung.  

Nothing like optimism? I can see 16C widely in the London area in a week's time, and an occasional 17C  (UKV, Arpege) but not the magic 20C,

I would say there is a reasonable chance in southernmost parts. Hopefully the signs of spring will continue. The warm feeling of the sun on your skin that starts to appear at this time of the year, combined with the lighter mornings and evenings, is great. The outlook is on the dry side over the next couple of weeks too based on the models which is a bonus.

GFS Op 0z - like FAX though pressure rise is greater for Britain Tue/Wed. After Thu 5th the HP cell in C Europe links to the Azores with a broad area of HP over Britain to Fri 13th, just the far NW affected by Atlantic W/SW-lies. A trough then pushes in from the NW 975mb N Ireland Sat 14th which pushes NE-wards. By Tue 17th the situation is the familiar, LP near Iceland + HP N Spain with W/NW-lies for Britain as a whole.

ECM - Rather like GFS with a fine springlike week to the 13th, though the Atlantic may affect Scotland more at that time. Then it's not just a trough pushing  in but a major drop in pressure for Britain between 955mb Iceland and 980mb Holland and a broad swathe of cold NW-lies Mon 16th.

Make the most of a fine mild spell for the next 10 days, albeit with a stuttering start, but this being a British Spring cold weather will be back later.

AIFS - London, fine and sunny this week 13C Maxima,  a break around Mon/Tue 9th/10th cooler with rain, then fine and sunny again but maxima 11C. In the fine periods some rather cold nights. Edinburgh, Maxima around 10C at first but 8C later, occasional rain and some sunshine to Mon 9th, then more sunny and dry. This model not reverting to cold NW-lies after Wed11th/ Fri 13th

GEFS - very mild to Fri 6th (less consistent in Scotland), then back to norm for mean temps with quite good ens agreement (a couple of very cold outliers Wed 11th), dry until 11th  (until 7th in Scotland) when small amounts of rain increasingly in many runs and more and heavier rain in west.

GFS Op 0z - like FAX but with pressure higher close to S England and LP further north so that W/SW-lies after Thu 5th only really affect N Ireland and NW Scotland, this situation lasting through to Thu 12th. Then a trough dips in from the NW, 975mb E Scotland Fri 13th. From Sat 14th onwards, a return to the W-lies with LP near Iceland and HP S France, but this time a broader wind field affecting all of Britain.

ECM - agrees with above to Thu 5th, then pressure remains quite high over Britain as a whole to Thu 12th but with no defined centre so winds variable everywhere. HP then shifts to the Baltic and there is a standoff between it and LP in the Atlantic and near Spain, so S-ly winds and less settled weather in the W (esp NW) to Tue 17th

GEFS - mild to Mon 9th (less consistently so in the N), a brief dip, then mean temp near norm through to Sun 15th before cooling a little. Rain increasingly likely after Thu 12th. also some for the N around Fri 6th, mostly small amounts but could be heavy in SW

AIFS - London, maxima around 14C and sunny this week, and again later from Sat 14th; cooler and cloudier for w/b Sun 8th but dry throughout; winds mainly E/SE unlike GFS. Edinburgh, maxima around 10C, cooler later, mixed amounts of cloud and sunshine and just a very little rain now and then. Winds mainly S-ly  until Thu 12th then E-ly.

A rather different outlook from the traditional models, which themselves disagree after the first week. More runs needed? 

I'll be in the garden if anyone needs me 👍

GFS Op 0z - keeps the HP going more strongly to Thu 12th to offer fine weather to the whole of Britain (just a weak trough in the NW Mon 9th). After a few days in which it retreats enough to allow mild SW-lies in, the HP centre then moves to C Europe Mon 16th and has a standoff with LP well south in the Atlantic with mild S-ly winds, later turning SW again.

ECM - A picture more dominated by LP; that weak trough on Monday develops into a depression over Scotland, preventing HP from affecting more than S England. By Thu 12th the HP is flat across C Europe and a large depression  from Iceland is coming ever closer, with first cool SW-lies (returning polar maritime, not from mid Atlantic as in GFS) becoming NW-ly by Mon 16th, LP by then is 980mb Rockall.

AIFS - London, maxima ca 13C this week, then mostly around 10C (even one frosty night Tue 17th), and frequent rain setting from Wed 11th. Edinburgh, maxima mainly around 10C, a little milder at first and cooler later, rain from Mon 9th. Both locations quite different from yesterday!

GEFS - England mild (2 or 3C above norm) to Mon 9th with good ens agreement, then mean temp near norm to Thu 19th with increasing spread from ens. Mainly dry to Wed 1tth, small amounts of rain in an increasing number of runs after that (but more frequent and greater amount in W). Scotland much the same except for a dip in temp with some heavy rain (snow on hills) Fri 6th, and more of a spread in ens members. 

GFS Op 0z - continues to Fri 13th with the theme of generally HP and weak troughs (another drifts across Wed 11th) though the far NW is always affected more by SW-lies. Then LP moves closer from the NW, and another Mon 16th, cooler for all and unsettled in the north.  Then Britain goes back to HP interrupted by weak troughs (e.g. Thu 19th).

ECM - Like GFS  to 13th, but the  first LP then moves in quickly and closer and occupies the Irish Sea 970 mb Sat 14th; the second is weaker but gets to the Channel 990mb on Mon 16th. Unlike GFS, HP does not revive over Britain but instead is over Finland Wed 18th with Britain in S-lies , fairly cool, between that and an extended trough of LP on the Atlantic

AIFS - London, mild and sunny for a couple of days, then maxima 10-12C , cloudy with occasional rain, that heaviest Fri 13th. Edinburgh, some big diurnal swings and mostly sunny to Tue 10th (though some rain Fri 6th) then cloudy, wet and increasingly cool to Wed 18th (5C)

GEFS - In the S, mild now, mean temp slowly back to norm by Wed 11th and staying there (a clutch of cold outliers for a few days from 11th), also increasing probability of rain after that date (more often wet in the W, staying mild longest in the E). In the N, similar but with the insertion of a cold day and heavy rain FRi 6th, and a bigger spread of ens members

GFS Op 0z - keeps pressure higher than FAX so may suppress the fronts, before the synopsis reverts to the usual W-lies by Wed 11th. HP then develops near the Baltic but not strongly enough to hold Atlantic LPs at bay; 960mb W Scotland Sat 14th, 990mb Wales Tue 17th, and a broad trough from Iceland to France Thu 19th. Winds  W-ly again and often strong from Sat 14th.

ECM - similar to GFS though the LP Tue 17th much deeper at 950mb though W of Ireland filling in situ; That seems to have exhausted the Atlantic because the general drop of pressure on the 19th doesn't happen and W-lies are back.

AIFS - London, maxima either side of 10C to Thu 19th, bits and pieces of rain becoming more frequent after 11th. Edinburgh, maxima about 7 or 8C, cooler Fri 6th, milder Mon 9th, briefly dry this weekend else rain more or less every day.

GEFS - in the S, mild (2 or 3 C above norm) then mean gradually drops to norm in a week's time at which point ens agreement breaks up quite a number of both warm and cold outliers from 17th. A little rain in some runs  for central districts from Fri 13th less in east more in west.  In the N, similar but with the addition of a cold day and heavy rain Fri 6th.

See notes in 'Unusual Weather' thread about dust in the atmosphere and fiery sunsets. IMO this dust will get washed out by Friday's front and be replaced by dust spots on cars.

March 2026 - in like a lamb and out like a lion?

Been an awesome few days hasn’t it? Led here now and our bedroom is really warm even with the windows open. Absolutely LOVE this time of year. Yes, on rare occasions it can regress (BFTE) but overall it’s an improving situation generally. 

I’m selecting 850 on WX and searching for those yellow and orange pulses making their way to us