.... and that's not midday but 7pm!

It’s the (afternoon) maximum between midday and 6pm.

Take it in 3-hour steps and 17C appears at 1200, 1500 AND 1800

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx 

Yes, it is the maximum temperature in the 6 hours up to that time point or potentially 3 hours in the TWO chart (Brian could confirm), not the temperature at that time point. So the 6pm max could be at any time from 3pm. The t2m HD chart for 6pm (on WZ) shows a max of (a still very mild) 14°C.

GFS Op - follows on from FAX with the SW/W-lies back in place until Sun 1st when there's a repeat of a trough dipping south to Spain. This time it lasts a bit longer, to Tue 3rd; then back to W-lies but less strong than for the coming week.

ECM - much the same as GFS but throws in a local storm 965mb N Ireland Fri 27th moving through quickly on the W-lies; also the trough on the 1st only lasts a day. At the end of the run, around Sun 8th, the LP moves from Iceland to the northern N Sea with cold NW-lies for Britain.

AIFS - London, maxima 10-12C (not the 17C of BBC and GFS) in the first week mainly cloudy with a little rain, after that sunny with big diurnal range and eventually a few degrees cooler. Edinburgh, similar but 9-10C plus a little rain Wed 4th, not as sunny in the second week.

GEFS - mild or very mild to Fri 27th, mean temp then near or just a small amount above norm, cooling later. In the S, rain now and around Fri 27th, otherwise most ens members dry at most times except wetter in SW; in the N, very little rain in the east but could happen any time,  rather wetter and persistent in NW

Of course the sort of British snow that is never seen anymore!

GFS Op 0z - broadly agrees with above, then takes a couple of LPs on a more S-ly track (985mb Rockall Sun 1st, 970mb off SW Ireland Mon 2nd) to keep mild weather from the south going, before back to the default until Thu 5th. Then a break with HP settling over Britain through to Tue 10th, just a suggestion at the end that it may retrogress and allow cold NE-lies in from Scandinavia.

ECM - like GFS at first but going downhill from Mon 2nd with that LP pushing a trough across Britain. The a bigger LP from the NW settling Irish Sea 980mb Thu 5th and introducing other LPs on the same track, the last of these over Belgium Sun 8th with E-lies for Britain. Even then only transient HP as the next Atlantic LP approaches Tue 10th.

WX charts as picked up by the tabloids forecasting a massive blizzard for the Nth time this winter, latest prediction is for Fri 6th! (WX is a tweaked version of ECM)

AIFS - London, maxima ca 11C to Wed 4th, then a little cooler; rain at intervals w/b Thu 26th, drier with the cooler weather. Edinburgh, temps pattern like London but with a couple of colder dips Sat 28th & Thu 5th; frequent rain from now to Sat 7th.  Winds mostly W/SW. More rain and less settled weather than this model predicted yesterday.

GEFS - Generally very mild until Sat 28th, after a brief dip remaining mild notably in SE for the following week before back to norm. Rain for Fri 27th, small amounts in some ens members after that but always more in the NW. A few extra cold outliers after Sat 7th. 

I noticed that slight upgrade in terms of spring-like conditions. ECM a little less interested, so it's up to the GFS 18z run to keep the spirits high before bedtime. 😁

According to Google AI:

"The snow shoveling season in the United States is considered a peak time for heart attacks, often referred to by doctors as "heart attack season," particularly when heavy, wet snowfalls occur. The combination of extreme cold and intense physical exertion creates a "perfect storm" for cardiovascular events, leading to thousands of injuries and roughly 100 deaths in the U.S. each year."

I know most of the cold fans will have moved on now, but I'll continue to keep an eye on it all - I'll happily take sleet or snow any time of year.

In the meantime tomorrow's warmth will be interesting, widespread 16s with dewpoints of 9 or 10 will feel warm and I suspect you'll almost be able to see the plant life growing!

I noticed yesterday how little rain was forecast in the GEFS 00z London chart, and it's the same today. Maybe we've gone from the wet season to the dry season, as has happened in the last few years about this time of year. That seems to be the two-season pattern we have now - at least in the far SE - October to March is the wet season (previously known as Autumn), April to September the dry season.  I wonder how long it will be before a hosepipe ban is re-introduced down here, having only been lifted in January. (Yes, that's the first time in my life I've lived with a hosepipe ban over the Christmas/New Year period.) 

GFS Op 0z - ... and GFS picks this up, keeping pressure low to the west of Britain over the weekend of Sat 28th with S/SW-lies, though not as mild as Wed and more unsettled esp for the NW. Then a rise of pressure 1030mb over England, a ridge extending to Scotland for the following week until the centre of the HP starts playing games after Sat 7th. First it moves to the NE, bringing E-lies for England, to Tue 10th; then it moves to the SW bringing N-lies to Scotland.

ECM - also likes LP to the west and mild weather from the S, taking two more bites at it, on Mon 2nd and Fri 6th, with W-lies in between.. From Sun 8th, pressure rises over Scotland with E-lies for Britain as in the GFS model, but ECM then moves the HP cell to Denmark; the E-lies are cut off and milder SE-lies return

AIFS - London, maxima dropping from 12C to 10C over the next fortnight (gardeners beware of frosty nights around Sat 7th), small amounts of rain at various times, winds all S-ly except 7th/8th. Edinburgh, maxima dropping from 10C to 8C over this period, the frosty nights are 28th/1st, and rain occasionally heavy in the first week of March, winds S/SW-ly.

GEFS - Mild now and again around Mon 2nd, after which mean is near norm but very little agreement in ens members (on Mon 9th, op is 10C below norm and control 7C above). Trivial amounts of rain,  in the E, just possibly some Fri 27th & 6th, in the W from Wales N-wards, larger amounts and never really dry.

Hopefully the first sightings of sunbathers in the park as well.  

Though a damaging cold snap is possible in March,  gardeners beware!

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf2/run/ecmwf-0-288.png?0 

Pull the other one. Much of the south east has some serious ground water flooding issues. Many tankers (pumps) continue to run in rural towns across Sussex. 

Even if it were bone dry from now til July, the resovoirs will brave it. 

GFS Op 0z - picks up where FAX left off, and then again goes back to W-lies until Thu 5th when pressure drops over Britain, eventually (Sun 8th) resulting in LP 995mb southern N Sea delivering a cold shot to England. That fills, and by Wed 11th Britain as a whole is back to mild S-lies controlled by LP mid-Atlantic. So generally mild with lots of S-lies but a couple of interruptions.

ECM - like GFS to THu 5th then diverges quite sharply as pressure rises, not falls, with the HP cell tending to be centred over Germany, resulting in S/SE-lies, persisting to Sun 8th whena reload from the SW puts HP centred over England from Tue 10th 

AIFS - London, Maxima 10-12C at first with a little rain then for week beginning Wed 4th a little cooler but with uninterrupted sunshine, maybe paying for that with night frosts. Wind mostly S-ly first week then E-ly. Edinburgh, like London if a degree or two cooler overall and an extra dip in temp for the coming weekend,

GEFS - mild now and again around Tue 3rd with good ens agreement, then mean stays near norm as agreement breaks up. Very little rain in  south, some in N & W Fri 27th, rather more persistent in far NW, otherwise pptn spread out randomly in only some runs at some times.

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf2/runs/2026022512/ecmwf-0-288.png?12 

My take on this being by the end of the weekend we will be looking at some very serious cold and snow synoptics probably landing anywhere between the 8th and 20th of March. Really hoping to see -14c to -16c 850's crossing the north sea to blighty with heavy frequent and prolonged snow showers affecting many areas with some heavy to very heavy falls of snow. The freeze lasting 4 to 6 days. Not much to ask is it.

Then roll on spring and summer.