https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 0z - The LP on Wed runs SE-wards to the Mediterranean, and HP takes over , 1030mb N France persisting for a week  to Wed 25th, settled for the S, less so for Scotland, winds SW-ly backing W-ly.  From Thu 26th the pattern shifts, LPs running SE-wards from Greenland passing over  Scotland on their way to the Baltic with bursts of NW-lies for Britain.

ECM - very much like GFS. After Thu 26th the procession of LPs is more continuous, and the final chart for Mon 2nd brings in notably cold N-lies rather than NW-lies.

AIFS - London, maxima ca 5C to Fri 20th, then 10-12C but with big diurnal swings (expect ground frosts) to Sun 1st, very little rain after today. Edinburgh, maxima 3-5C to Fri 20th , then 10C but temps staying up overnight; rain today and then for the weekend of Sat 21st, small amounts later.

GEFS - In the S, temps up and down either side of norm to Sat 21st then on the mild side for a week before back to norm; quite a spread of 10ns members after 21st, mostly above norm at first but just one or two dramatically cold outliers. Rain now , Thu 19th, only in occasional ens members thereafter, more in SW later. In tScotland, a definite dip in temps after early recovery but as in S from 21st, not much rain until 21st then persistent but small amounts in the E, rather more in the W

The models have been predicting cold weather since December - the white Christmas 5 days out that never happened.  Apart from the brief cold snap over New Year, its been a disaster.   

Hopefully the models will be better at predicting the return of the Merkelslug.  We need some dry weather and warmth now. And to see the Sun again!

I think there is a question mark over whether it is likely to be a sustained warm-up at the moment, Ally. The ECM & GFS 00z runs both agree on a rather milder spell generally starting next weekend for a few days, but both then go on to indicate temps dropping again as we head towards the very end of February/start of March. 

As always, more runs are needed.

The models are a joke

iPhone app has even jumped on board for Wednesday night. How long do you reckon before it succumbs to reality? Yesterday it was still showing snow overnight right up until about six hours out before switching to rain. The models have been utterly useless this winter. Constantly teasing cold and snow that never arrives. 

The likes of Arpege will be closer to what happens. I’ve no idea why people even bother looking at charts beyond a couple of days absolute maximum for snow. GFS in particular is generally absolutely useless at forecasting snowfall beyond a day or two

ECM and GEM are even worse. So much so I think there is an error either in the charts or how they are reconstructed . They are a complete waste of time and far too generous. 

ECM 6z snow chart T+1 (7am today)

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf2/runs/2026021506/ecmwfuk-34-1.png?6 

A load of rubbish. The correct at this point would be a couple of cm covering on ground 180m + in the Pennines and Lake District and NYM's. 

So if it's completely off at it's starting point, it makes it a complete waste of time as any kind of forecasting tool. 

It's garbage piled on garbage. The underlying data is poor and then applying a 10:1 compression makes it even worse. In terms of snow depth, I've found the ICON-EU attempts to be reasonable at times. That said, I've not looked at the snow depth output from the various models analytically enough to be confident. 

Wow, that even shows a covering of snow on Sheppey! 😅The reality, as of 7z, was nothing at all - the radar showed patchy drizzle but it was still dry. Half an hour later it started raining...

Makes me wonder how the ECM's initial snow data is generated. It can't be from visible satellite as it would have been dark even if it wasn't cloudy. Maybe another satellite sensor? Whatever it is, it is - as you say - rubbish. And that'll have knock-on effects too, if nothing else it'll assume the boundary layer is colder than it really is (as the ground would have been at 3C rather than zero).

I would agree normally - because there was a modelling of snow in East Anglia and when I looked out at 6.00am there was cold rain and 2 degrees. But then something weird happened !!

from 8.30am we had sleet turning to snow and then at 10.30 am the heaviest snow I have seen since the cold snap of 2021 or even the Beast of 2018. So heavy in fact that we had nearly 2” and it stopped finally at 2PM! The temperature dropped to 0.5 degrees and it settled everywhere!  I couldn’t believe my eyes frankly - it was alpine !! 

Not for long as far as I can see from the latter part of the run, unfortunately.

Yes, the t2m GEFS mean for London reaches almost 12°C for a time in a week or so.

On the subject of ensemble means, the t850 mean here on the 12z dips to -10.2°C on Tuesday before the much milder conditions move in here with the t2m mean as high as 8.0°C at one point.

Yes, the winter version of 'three fine days and a thunderstorm'. For 'thunderstorm' read NW-ly gales

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/79/11453/ukmohd_uk1_42_69_0dke8.png 

This morning's UKV is similar - with a special helping of rain here while just 10 miles away it chucks it down with snow. Hopefully the whole lot will move say 20 miles north, but as ever I won't get my hopes up. Mind you, the more widespread snow is only 72 hours away - is that close enough to take it seriously? Hmm...

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukv/03_66_rain_rate.png 

EDIT: GFS also shows the Sheppey Snow Shield in full effect, here's its T+69 chart:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/98/12197/69_779UKqvk1.GIF 

Well that was quick. It’s already switched to showing purely rain. 

If its rain it'll make the M4, if its snow it'll hug the North French Coast to Brussels UK bone dry

On the plus side, the GFS is showing a week of mostly dry weather for England after wednesdays front which would be more exciting for me given the circumstances. Hopefully that high pressure can hold a little stronger and longer. 

ECM not quite on board with either wednesdays snow or the dryness though...

GFS Op;  disagrees with FAX - has the Wed/Thu LP heading for S France and unlikely to affect more than Cornwall as it passes. Then a ridge of HP from the SW keeping Atlantic LPs at bay for a week, at its peak 1030mb Brittany Mon 23rd with mild SW-lies before toppling on Thu 26th - by Sun 1st LP has taken up position 985mb Fair Isle with trough extending south through the Irish Sea.

ECM; more like GFS than FAX to Thu 19th but fails to raise pressure as much as GFS so for the week to Thu 26th there's a tussle between HP to the S and LP to the N, with winds more W-ly. By Fri 27th there is a bigger difference from GFS, the HP has collapsed and LP has moved in 985mb Wales entraining some rather cold air. This moves on and after a brief spell of W-lies for the weekend of Sun 1st a new LP is approaching W Scotland Tue 3rd.

Little agreement from these models today

AIFS; London, maxima 5C with some rain to Sat 21st, then maxima 10-11C and almost dry to Tue 2nd. looks sunny and clear with the diurnal range large (but a bit less than yesterday). Edinburgh, also becoming mild from Sat 21st but more cloudy with significant rain at times.

GEFS; in the S, rain, possibly (50%) snow, heaviest on S coast and cool to Sat 21st, then a very mild (6 or  7 C above norm)  and dry week to Fri 27th, after which little ens agreement but looking like temps back to norm with some rain possible. In the N. quite cold to start but warming up for the mild week from Sat 21st, however with rain in this week. Finishing as for the S.

Wednesday Snow is not going to happen, lower level winds coming off an already warming continent means the lower layer is already warmed before the precip arrives. It may sleet at the highest levels in the SE, but there will be nothing at lower levels.

After this it looks like normal service is resumed with standard end of winter synoptics.

Overnight - minimum temperatures 0 degrees. By morning - rain and 2 degrees. Not far to the west 4-5 degrees as the mild air progressed west to east. Rain petered out by 8.30am, then intensified again, with sleety bits. This then became more snowy and we had intermittent sleet and snow pulses between 8.30 and 10.30am, At 1.5 degrees. Then it turned to snow and intensified further to very heavy snow, 10p sized flakes, dense and persistent, the temperature dropped to just above zero, 0.3-0.5 and snow started to settle and pile up. By 2pm, when it finally stopped - it was 2” on the lawn and on all twigs and branches  like a winter wonderland. If it had been 0 degrees and lower dew point, I think this could have been 4” deep. It is the most sustained heavy snowfall I have seen since 2021 or even 2018. I just don't understand Why that happened. Although the BBC had said “you might see a flake or two in east Anglia” I was nt expecting a raging blizzard! Can anyone explain what just happened?

Evaporative cooling, whereby the intensity was heavy enough to cool things down just enough to turn it back to snow.