The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

sunny coast
08 January 2025 17:36:09
Rain turned to heqvy snow here near Eastbourne  covered roads very quickly 
fairweather
08 January 2025 18:53:00
Well as ever in the last couple of decades I seem to be caught in the London/Estuary rain shadow horseshoe effect.. Had some heavy rain and a bit of wet sleety stuff but with London heat sink just 20 miles East and the 8C Estuary water heater 8 miles south it is hard to see much happening here unless the front, which appears to have stalled, tracks East as it moves out into the N.Sea and traps some colder air on the way.

Anyway a big bonus for those in Central Southern England - a pleasant surprise for them judging by the radar.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
08 January 2025 19:24:08

The band on the radar is not actually there - or at least not reaching the ground. I've been under radar echoes for several hours and nothing apart from the odd spot of drizzle has made it to Earth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

It’s the same here: the radar map show very light snow falling but the ground is dry. There could be a flake or two in the air but it’s pitch dark and we don’t have any street lighting.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



tierradelfuego
08 January 2025 21:21:43

The band on the radar is not actually there - or at least not reaching the ground. I've been under radar echoes for several hours and nothing apart from the odd spot of drizzle has made it to Earth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes it took a pretty long time to get going, and never exactly heavy. We have finished off with a cm of lying snow, which I'm sure will look "pretty" in the morning.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Bugglesgate
08 January 2025 21:31:09

The band on the radar is not actually there - or at least not reaching the ground. I've been under radar echoes for several hours and nothing apart from the odd spot of drizzle has made it to Earth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes, I noticed that.

I work in south Oxfordshire…..looked at RADAR before leaving work …was sure I would drive into snow driving south but nothing. We eventually got a light dusting here.


Chris (It,its)

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

Saint Snow
09 January 2025 15:09:13
There's still a bit of convective activity coming off the Irish Sea. 

Whereas this morning it was slightly west of NW'ly, and so driving the snow showers into NW England SW of a line from Preston to Manchester, the flow has swung round to more of a NNW'y, which sends the snow showers into NE Wales


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Bolty
09 January 2025 15:32:56

There's still a bit of convective activity coming off the Irish Sea. 

Whereas this morning it was slightly west of NW'ly, and so driving the snow showers into NW England SW of a line from Preston to Manchester, the flow has swung round to more of a NNW'y, which sends the snow showers into NE Wales

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Yes, it's been sunny here today, but I can clearly see the anvils over the Irish Sea. Looks like North Wales are getting it all at the moment, with a very cold and clear night to come here.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Saint Snow
09 January 2025 16:39:44

Yes, it's been sunny here today, but I can clearly see the anvils over the Irish Sea. Looks like North Wales are getting it all at the moment, with a very cold and clear night to come here.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

It's been misty/foggy all day in city centre Manc (and, according to the missus, similar back home)


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Snow Hoper
09 January 2025 17:52:45
Anyone with any info/thoughts on the area of ppn travelling down the north sea towards EA?

Will it do it's usually about turn or fizzle away into nothing?


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Retron
09 January 2025 17:57:39

Anyone with any info/thoughts on the area of ppn travelling down the north sea towards EA?

Will it do it's usually about turn or fizzle away into nothing?

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

The upper steering flow is NNW'ly / NW'ly, so I wouldn't get your hopes up!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/88/26364/9_308UKshp3.GIF 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Snow Hoper
09 January 2025 18:07:44

The upper steering flow is NNW'ly / NW'ly, so I wouldn't get your hopes up!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/88/26364/9_308UKshp3.GIF 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Thanks Darren, seems to happen quite a lot these days.


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 January 2025 18:09:20

Anyone with any info/thoughts on the area of ppn travelling down the north sea towards EA?

Will it do it's usually about turn or fizzle away into nothing?

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

Just about touches Great Yarmouth and then departs for Holland

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map 


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

BJBlake
09 January 2025 18:14:03
Yes - the consistent prevail of such shower clusters, (this one is nicely curled into a polar low type formation), is that in recent years they have always been subject to this propensity to shoot off to the east as they near the northern coast of the “ear” of east Anglia. In times past the winds would be northerly and track the showers due south, clipping Kings Lynn, and Swaffham would get deluged, and the last fizzles might make it to bury st Edmunds. Since 2010, the trend is for these shower clusters to veer off to clip Dereham and paste Norwich, and latterly, certainly the lest few yeas, it has just been the east coast - Stalham and Wroxham getting pasted, with a dusting from Cromer to Caister. 

This underlying NNW or NW air-stream is ever more present, in direct contrast to the frequent. East Anglian snow showers of times past (how they are missed). The second phenomenon is the fizzle. Whenever such shower clouds get near the EA coast, they suddenly collapse and fizzle to virtually nothing.

Its a bother. I am sure this cluster will both fizzle and shoot off east, just clipping Stalham with some sleet, being 6m ASL.

Yours most miffed

B

 


Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
phlippy67
09 January 2025 18:19:43
I was watching that feature with interest as i live in Withernsea, a snow devoid town on the East Riding coast, and thought it was coming straight towards me but it veered away as usual with just a brief flurry...!
Brian Gaze
15 January 2025 18:19:50
Surprised this hasn't been mentioned.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 January 2025 18:21:45

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Its on the ICON too, I assumed it was freezing fog?


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
15 January 2025 18:29:56

Its on the ICON too, I assumed it was freezing fog?

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

ICON shows a few flakes of snow close to northern France.  On the TWO plots (and quite likely others) the snow key will only appear if the variable isn't null. It's the easiest way to check if there is any snow forecast in the grid area which is plotted.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 January 2025 18:35:07

ICON shows a few flakes of snow close to northern France.  On the TWO plots (and quite likely others) the snow key will only appear if the variable isn't null. It's the easiest way to check if there is any snow forecast in the grid area which is plotted.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

That's odd, I can definitely see it here:

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2025011512/iconeu_uk1-1-96-0.png?15-16 

Does ICON have a separate regional model (not ICON-D2)

You can also see it here

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2025011512/iconeu_uk1-42-96-0.png?15-16 

But only as a couple of pixels in the E midlands and kent.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
15 January 2025 18:48:47

That's odd, I can definitely see it here:

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2025011512/iconeu_uk1-1-96-0.png?15-16 

Does ICON have a separate regional model (not ICON-D2)

You can also see it here

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2025011512/iconeu_uk1-42-96-0.png?15-16 

But only as a couple of pixels in the E midlands and kent.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I can only guess the rate is less than 0.05 which is the cut off point on the TWO ICON-EU charts.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
21 January 2025 11:25:28
So here we go again.

Friday: Widespread snow likely briefly for much of the north, albeit it will be brief and turn quickly to rain. Scotland could see something more prolonged.

Saturday: A little feature crosses England in realtively cold air. Quite a bit of snow likely for some places. Should be interesting.

And plenty of wintry showers on offer for the far west on many days. But there will be brief thaw periods as is the case when the cold comes from the west.

Welcome to cold zonality. And cometh the pest from the west.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Matty H
23 January 2025 23:59:54

So here we go again.

Friday: Widespread snow likely briefly for much of the north, albeit it will be brief and turn quickly to rain. Scotland could see something more prolonged.

Saturday: A little feature crosses England in realtively cold air. Quite a bit of snow likely for some places. Should be interesting.

And plenty of wintry showers on offer for the far west on many days. But there will be brief thaw periods as is the case when the cold comes from the west.

Welcome to cold zonality. And cometh the pest from the west.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Widespread? Looks like virtually nothing whatsoever for the vast majority, and I appreciate this is a day later, but it didn’t 24 hours ago either. 

However, the highest ground of Scotland is going to get absolutely battered in the next day or so


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 January 2025 00:07:50

Widespread? Looks like virtually nothing whatsoever for the vast majority, and I appreciate this is a day later, but it didn’t 24 hours ago either. 

However, the highest ground of Scotland is going to get absolutely battered in the next day or so

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Fair enough.

N Ireland and northern parts of Eire are seeing some snow now though.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Lionel Hutz
24 January 2025 00:13:33

Fair enough.

N Ireland and northern parts of Eire are seeing some snow now though.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

The snow in Ireland is fairly localised tonight, I think, but it is being reported in a few areas. That said, Meteireann is talking about fairly widespread snow showers over the next few days though I expect that we're looking at falling snow only, so I don't think you're too far off the mark.


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



fullybhoy
24 January 2025 19:40:49
The showers that are firing through here fairly rapidly in the still strong wind are a wintry mix of sleet and snow 
Alan

Glasgow 165m/asl

Saint Snow
24 January 2025 21:34:40
I'm looking at that frontal feature modelled by all to move in from the west I'm the early hours of Sunday.

Very likely that the ppn will be snow over Cumbria and Western Scotland.

Models split on how far south it will fall as snow, though. Looking at MBY (but applies to the whole Merseyside/Manchester conurbation, really):

Snow - Arpege

Borderline - GFS & Icon

Rain - Met Office 

Fragmented so mostly dry here - UKV

I'm not counting on snow, but it'll be interesting to see which is right

Front will fragment and fizzle not that far inland as well 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Remove ads from site