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Retron
09 January 2025 17:57:39

Anyone with any info/thoughts on the area of ppn travelling down the north sea towards EA?
Will it do it's usually about turn or fizzle away into nothing?

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 


The upper steering flow is NNW'ly / NW'ly, so I wouldn't get your hopes up!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/88/26364/9_308UKshp3.GIF 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
Snow Hoper
09 January 2025 18:07:44

The upper steering flow is NNW'ly / NW'ly, so I wouldn't get your hopes up!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/88/26364/9_308UKshp3.GIF 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Thanks Darren, seems to happen quite a lot these days.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
DEW
  • DEW
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09 January 2025 18:09:20

Anyone with any info/thoughts on the area of ppn travelling down the north sea towards EA?
Will it do it's usually about turn or fizzle away into nothing?

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 


Just about touches Great Yarmouth and then departs for Holland

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
BJBlake
09 January 2025 18:14:03
Yes - the consistent prevail of such shower clusters, (this one is nicely curled into a polar low type formation), is that in recent years they have always been subject to this propensity to shoot off to the east as they near the northern coast of the “ear” of east Anglia. In times past the winds would be northerly and track the showers due south, clipping Kings Lynn, and Swaffham would get deluged, and the last fizzles might make it to bury st Edmunds. Since 2010, the trend is for these shower clusters to veer off to clip Dereham and paste Norwich, and latterly, certainly the lest few yeas, it has just been the east coast - Stalham and Wroxham getting pasted, with a dusting from Cromer to Caister. 
This underlying NNW or NW air-stream is ever more present, in direct contrast to the frequent. East Anglian snow showers of times past (how they are missed). The second phenomenon is the fizzle. Whenever such shower clouds get near the EA coast, they suddenly collapse and fizzle to virtually nothing.
Its a bother. I am sure this cluster will both fizzle and shoot off east, just clipping Stalham with some sleet, being 6m ASL.
Yours most miffed
B
 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
phlippy67
09 January 2025 18:19:43
I was watching that feature with interest as i live in Withernsea, a snow devoid town on the East Riding coast, and thought it was coming straight towards me but it veered away as usual with just a brief flurry...!
Brian Gaze
15 January 2025 18:19:50
Surprised this hasn't been mentioned.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Quantum
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15 January 2025 18:21:45

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Its on the ICON too, I assumed it was freezing fog?
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 6 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0)
2023/2024 Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
15 January 2025 18:29:56

Its on the ICON too, I assumed it was freezing fog?

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



ICON shows a few flakes of snow close to northern France.  On the TWO plots (and quite likely others) the snow key will only appear if the variable isn't null. It's the easiest way to check if there is any snow forecast in the grid area which is plotted.



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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
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15 January 2025 18:35:07

ICON shows a few flakes of snow close to northern France.  On the TWO plots (and quite likely others) the snow key will only appear if the variable isn't null. It's the easiest way to check if there is any snow forecast in the grid area which is plotted.



UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That's odd, I can definitely see it here:

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2025011512/iconeu_uk1-1-96-0.png?15-16 

Does ICON have a separate regional model (not ICON-D2)

You can also see it here
https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2025011512/iconeu_uk1-42-96-0.png?15-16 
But only as a couple of pixels in the E midlands and kent.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 6 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0)
2023/2024 Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
15 January 2025 18:48:47

That's odd, I can definitely see it here:

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2025011512/iconeu_uk1-1-96-0.png?15-16 

Does ICON have a separate regional model (not ICON-D2)

You can also see it here
https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2025011512/iconeu_uk1-42-96-0.png?15-16 
But only as a couple of pixels in the E midlands and kent.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 




I can only guess the rate is less than 0.05 which is the cut off point on the TWO ICON-EU charts.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
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21 January 2025 11:25:28
So here we go again.
Friday: Widespread snow likely briefly for much of the north, albeit it will be brief and turn quickly to rain. Scotland could see something more prolonged.
Saturday: A little feature crosses England in realtively cold air. Quite a bit of snow likely for some places. Should be interesting.


And plenty of wintry showers on offer for the far west on many days. But there will be brief thaw periods as is the case when the cold comes from the west.

Welcome to cold zonality. And cometh the pest from the west.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 6 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0)
2023/2024 Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Matty H
23 January 2025 23:59:54

So here we go again.
Friday: Widespread snow likely briefly for much of the north, albeit it will be brief and turn quickly to rain. Scotland could see something more prolonged.
Saturday: A little feature crosses England in realtively cold air. Quite a bit of snow likely for some places. Should be interesting.


And plenty of wintry showers on offer for the far west on many days. But there will be brief thaw periods as is the case when the cold comes from the west.

Welcome to cold zonality. And cometh the pest from the west.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Widespread? Looks like virtually nothing whatsoever for the vast majority, and I appreciate this is a day later, but it didn’t 24 hours ago either. 
However, the highest ground of Scotland is going to get absolutely battered in the next day or so
Quantum
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24 January 2025 00:07:50

Widespread? Looks like virtually nothing whatsoever for the vast majority, and I appreciate this is a day later, but it didn’t 24 hours ago either. 
However, the highest ground of Scotland is going to get absolutely battered in the next day or so

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Fair enough.

N Ireland and northern parts of Eire are seeing some snow now though.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 6 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0)
2023/2024 Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Lionel Hutz
24 January 2025 00:13:33

Fair enough.

N Ireland and northern parts of Eire are seeing some snow now though.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The snow in Ireland is fairly localised tonight, I think, but it is being reported in a few areas. That said, Meteireann is talking about fairly widespread snow showers over the next few days though I expect that we're looking at falling snow only, so I don't think you're too far off the mark.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



fullybhoy
24 January 2025 19:40:49
The showers that are firing through here fairly rapidly in the still strong wind are a wintry mix of sleet and snow 
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
Saint Snow
24 January 2025 21:34:40
I'm looking at that frontal feature modelled by all to move in from the west I'm the early hours of Sunday.

Very likely that the ppn will be snow over Cumbria and Western Scotland.

Models split on how far south it will fall as snow, though. Looking at MBY (but applies to the whole Merseyside/Manchester conurbation, really):

Snow - Arpege
Borderline - GFS & Icon
Rain - Met Office 
Fragmented so mostly dry here - UKV


I'm not counting on snow, but it'll be interesting to see which is right

Front will fragment and fizzle not that far inland as well 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fullybhoy
25 January 2025 11:29:18
We have thundersnow here, big massive flakes 
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
Windy Willow
25 January 2025 12:15:26

We have thundersnow here, big massive flakes 

Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 


Somewhat jealous lol Hope you get to enjoy it and that it's a decent amount.
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White


It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.
Saint Snow
26 January 2025 10:08:06
As expected, no snow here.
No snow lying in the Lakes, either (apart from a few high peaks)
Parts of Scotland have had some but nothing spectacular.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 January 2025 22:07:34
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk 
Wednesday 12th - Friday 14th in the south

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 February 2025 07:22:16
Ill start off by saying all the models (even the high res) have underestimated the cold this morning by around 3C. This is the sort of thing that could make a big difference to the precip type this weekend.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 6 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0)
2023/2024 Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
StoneCroze
06 February 2025 07:33:59
I must admit, I was surprised that local forecasters are going for wintry showers overnight, this from showers generated over the Channel.
Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
scillydave
06 February 2025 10:46:52
It looks like there's the potential for a surprise snowfall (albeit a slushy one) for the central South area and the South East of Wales for Friday night into Saturday. 
Those with some elevation will obviously fo better as it looks very marginal. 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Jiries
07 February 2025 00:25:48

Ill start off by saying all the models (even the high res) have underestimated the cold this morning by around 3C. This is the sort of thing that could make a big difference to the precip type this weekend.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yes was -3 to -4 this morning and my conservatory was 0.7C before rising to 27.6 at pm so colder than the app min which happened other night. 🤪 It best to look outside now more accurately. 
Jim-55
07 February 2025 16:15:37
Starting to snow here in Frome, hopefully not going to be too hard as I'm going out for a couple of hours very soon. The gritters have been  busy today so somethings expected tonight.
Previously JimC. joined back then in 2009. Frome, N/E Somerset, 125mtrs asl.

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