https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=0&time=132&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=12#mapref 

Yes we don't know where the snow is going to be. But the extreme scenarios of the low passing south of the south coast (or not developing at all) or blowing up so large nowhere south or lower than Braemar gets anything are probably unlikely. We probably won't have a good idea until Sunday to be honest.

This is a decent summary. The evidence of past events suggest a southward correction with a shallower shortwave is more likely than a deeper low and hence more northerly vector. The system last December corrected so far south in the 48hrs up to 0hrs that the forecast snow for the Midlands south ended up in France.

It will be interesting to see how this develops in the 120hrs left to refine the detail - and that is a very long time even for the best medium term modelling.

Agree. Expecting inland aberdeenshire to get a decent shot at moderate accumulations. But near the north coast less so - the sea is still relatively warm. 

Short res models starting to see this.

My gut is telling me the MetOffice warning is too far north. Northern Ireland, the Northern Midlands, the far NE of Wales and southern parts of Northern England seem to me to be best placed to get the most out of this event particularly as I think its more likely the LP will be further south than further north than showing atm.

I would like to see it a bit further South as pretty sure that whilst there is usually a trend to head South in the 3-5 day period prior to the event , on the day itself I can recall lots of situations where the low is further north than forecast.

https://modeles14.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo/runs/2024111606/ukmohd_uk1-1-63-0.png?16-10 

Lots of swings to go and likely high ground needed too, so far from simple forecasting. 

Met office App for here has been rapidly swinging , yesterday showed a high here of 10c for Monday, now down to 4c with some heavy snow symbols in the evening. 

Yes, I would expect the details to change quite a lot even if the overall pattern doesn’t and it could have significant impacts on the weather experienced. A tricky forecasting situation.

Still got just rain for me

This is a crazy UKV snow depth chart as it's usually so conservative. 

  Other models generally show up to 15cm in the sweet spot. 

I would expect the current Met Office warning needs bringing South to at least Sheffield and expanding out of the Pennines as there is a risk that some lower levels could get hit. 

Tuesday morning could be tricky. 

That southern edge is going to be tricky, because potentially that's where the most snow could be. We could potentially be looking at a situation where inches of lying snow and rain are separated by 20 miles.

Another factor is the curl of the occluded front as the LP moves out to sea. Even though the main precip is done by, say 4am, the occluded front bends back round and we also start to get the lake effect. There is a chance that we get some really heavy snow off that of the more convective type.

The baseline freezing level for most of southern N England is 400-600m, so evap cooling only needs to bring it down by 100-300m, and it does that easily. The nice thing about this, is that its not really marginal in terms of how cold it needs to be provided you are on the northern side of that steep temperature gradient.

It bodes well for lying snow, we aren't talking overly mushy snow that struggles to settle. We should get settling quite rapidly I would have thought, maybe only an hour of melting at lower levels before it readily lies as the freezing level comes well below 300m.