The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 February 2025 10:55:54

Ah, you posted before my updated post made it through. If you look at the animation in the latter link which I added, you'll see it starts off in a very similar manner. If the Continental air feed is sustained, eventually everything below that dry layer becomes mixed, the whole lower airmass becomes cold, and then you have your classic cold spell. I've never looked at charts further north, so I don't know how rare or not it is up there - but down here that sort of thing is relatively common *if* you can get a proper Continental airmass.

It's also why in places like Yellowstone they get powder snow even at +7C - the cold wedge is very thick, and it's just the very lowest level which is warm, and even then the dewpoint is well below zero, hence the snow survives all the way down. I've heard you can even get snow at +10C, or 50F as they call it, out there. Of course here the sea does its best to ensure we seldom develop a Continental style airmass!

FWIW in "the Beast" we had a few hours of freezing rain as the Atlantic air moved back in. By then the cold layer was so dense, so thick, it took a while for it to be scrubbed away.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I think its a fairly common profile for the continent (either one) but its very unusual here. Also unlike the animation which you posted, we have a situation here where the whole temp profile is not moving in one direction, its getting colder lower down and warmer higher up. The main difference compared to 2018 is that the very cold air is only getting established at the same time that warmer air is also moving in at higher levels.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Tim A
14 February 2025 17:13:43
Just frustrating it isn't a couple of degrees colder as wide parts could then see some settling albeit fairly light snow this weekend.  Seems like there is a chance tonight, tomorrow at various points and then Sunday as well depending on which model you look at.    Chance of snow many places Eastern England up to Eastern Scotland, very borderline though. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Snowfall Winter 24/25: 18/11 5cm, 23/11 9cm, 22/12: dusting, 5/1 16cm, 6/1 6cm top-up , 7/1 1cm top-up.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
11 March 2025 10:48:52
So the airmass is about 1-2C warmer than we thought, but that makes a difference and we are on the wrong side of marginal generally.
That being said tommorow early and late is looking pretty good. If you are away from the immediate coast and its earlier than 11pm or later than 6pm then showers could be turning sleety even to lower levels. And getting precip shouldn't be an issue, it will be fairly widespread; again late afternoon may be best for most central and southern parts while the morning might be best for the north.

2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)

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