The Weather Outlook

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Tim A
18 November 2024 07:39:53
For what's it's worth (not very much in my opinion), when you get to this range, just a reminder that ICON 6Z is already out...
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/46/5376/icond2_46_23_0vzz1.png 



Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Snowfall Winter 24/25: 18/11 5cm, 23/11 9cm, 22/12: dusting, 5/1 16cm, 6/1 6cm top-up , 7/1 1cm top-up.
ballamar
18 November 2024 09:19:17
At least living in the SE there is no hope or expectation. Will be enjoyable to hear the excitement/disappointment from elsewhere! Good luck
warrenb
18 November 2024 09:54:02

At least living in the SE there is no hope or expectation. Will be enjoyable to hear the excitement/disappointment from elsewhere! Good luck

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Indeed, down here in Kent winter is a spectator sport these days.
Tonbridge 45m 
+2
Taylor1740
18 November 2024 10:27:10
Met Office still only expecting the snow to effect higher ground over 200m, and only a very small chance of snow settling to lower levels. We shall see then however I think the vast majority of us can expect a lot of rain based on the Met Office forecast.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
Quantum
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18 November 2024 11:28:14
Its further north on the radar right?
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
scillydave
18 November 2024 11:39:29

Its further north on the radar right?

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Id actually thought the opposite. It's pushed into Wales faster than modelled by the Met Office and Northern Ireland looks drier ATM.
 Another couple of hours and we should have a clearer picture I think. Definitely a now cast for north Midlands northwards.
It'll be interesting to see what it does as it pulls away. Arome, Arpege and ECM have a good bit of snow through South Wales / cotswolds etc tomorrow morning whereas other models have nothing. 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
doctormog
18 November 2024 11:51:20
I see the updated Met Office weather warnings now include this area (from.this afternoon until Wednesday).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Tim A
18 November 2024 11:52:19
Tense times.  Still no idea what will happen but UKV 9Z doesn't take it as far North in an organised way, better for Midlands I would say. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Snowfall Winter 24/25: 18/11 5cm, 23/11 9cm, 22/12: dusting, 5/1 16cm, 6/1 6cm top-up , 7/1 1cm top-up.
Quantum
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18 November 2024 12:08:30
Definitely looks further north and east to me. Models have the precip nearly at the welsh, english border which was not expected to happen for another 2-3 hours.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
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18 November 2024 12:24:38
Precip grazing the south coast of the Isle of man. Most models take until around 7pm for that to happen.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Tim A
18 November 2024 12:40:41
Is it real though, could be false echos?
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Snowfall Winter 24/25: 18/11 5cm, 23/11 9cm, 22/12: dusting, 5/1 16cm, 6/1 6cm top-up , 7/1 1cm top-up.
westv
18 November 2024 12:44:22

I see the updated Met Office weather warnings now include this area (from.this afternoon until Wednesday).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


No weather warning for Hull now - I'm sure there was one yesterday although it was all "slight risk"
At least it will be mild!
Brian Gaze
18 November 2024 12:57:13
Arome 06Z brings the snow risk to the south of London tomorrow. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Quantum
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18 November 2024 12:58:26
So based on the MSLP I don't think the LP is stronger or further north than anticipated, but the front itself is further NE and maybe a bit more active. I can't say what impact this will have this evening when snow is important.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
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18 November 2024 13:00:58

Arome 06Z brings the snow risk to the south of London tomorrow. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The air will be cold enough, models don't disagree on that. What is odd is the fact this precip doesn't even exist on some of the other models. This system's path and development seems still very uncertain.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
+1
Brian Gaze
18 November 2024 13:06:40

The air will be cold enough, models don't disagree on that. What is odd is the fact this precip doesn't even exist on some of the other models. This system's path and development seems still very uncertain.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



The Meteo France models are showing 2 distinct disturbances. It is the second which brings the snow to the south I think. Here's Arpege 06Z.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Retron
18 November 2024 13:07:13

Arome 06Z brings the snow risk to the south of London tomorrow. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


MC suggests it turns increasingly to soft hail rather than snow. I guess that's due to the interaction with layers of warmer air as it moves SE'wards, meaning there's a layer of milder air within which melts the snow, only for the droplets to become supercooled.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/96/11780/aromehd_1_30_0sbx8.png 

UserPostedImage

(White hatching = snow, orange shading = soft hail / grapuel).
Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
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18 November 2024 13:20:44

The Meteo France models are showing 2 distinct disturbances. It is the second which brings the snow to the south I think. Here's Arpege 06Z.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Itl be a bent back occluded front from the LP, so one difference between France and the other models is that the occluded front develops while the LP is still close to the UK rather than well to its east.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
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18 November 2024 13:24:53
So it sems clear that the models have broadly got the position, track and intensity of the LP correct so far; but they have got the frontal positions wrong and disagree on the development (or even whether an occluded front will form at all).
If the fronts are more active then expected we can't rule out secondary lows either.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
18 November 2024 13:25:39

MC suggests it turns increasingly to soft hail rather than snow. I guess that's due to the interaction with layers of warmer air as it moves SE'wards, meaning there's a layer of milder air within which melts the snow, only for the droplets to become supercooled.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/96/11780/aromehd_1_30_0sbx8.png 

UserPostedImage

(White hatching = snow, orange shading = soft hail / grapuel).

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Thanks. I've just seen that variable in the grib. It's labelled Graupel (Snow Pellets) which fits in with what that chart shows.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+1
Quantum
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18 November 2024 13:27:43
The heaviest precip at the moment is around eastern anglesy in wales. In even the most progressive model runs, the precip hasn't even reached there yet. Fronts clearly more progressive and/or stronger than expected. I think its a good sign for most people.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Boardshark
18 November 2024 13:40:43
Which model was closest to the actual present conditions?
449ft Sutton Coldfield, West MIdlands
Quantum
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18 November 2024 14:11:56

Which model was closest to the actual present conditions?

Originally Posted by: Boardshark 


Probably the GFS initialized WRF, which doesn't suprise me actually. Its usually good at getting the position of fronts largelly right.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
roadrunnerajn
18 November 2024 14:18:35
I would say the southern half of the Peak District could well do alright for snow. I imagine it will start as sleety rain below 1000ft but quickly drop to 330ft 100m by late evening. … just what I see looking at the latest modelling.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
Quantum
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18 November 2024 14:20:09
Yeh the WRF has it much better than the others:
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=24&map=330 

AROME, UKV, HIRLAM e.c.t. are not even close. The WRF has most of it right but still about 50-100 miles too far SW.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)

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