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ARTzeman
14 February 2024 11:35:30
IMANSF22                 7.9c             Nicks, IBath 75      8.4c
Metcheck                  7.73c           Anomaly         3.53c
Netweather               8.13c           Anomaly         3.24c
Peasedown St John   8.58c           Anomaly         3.31c
 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
14 February 2024 14:46:48
Hadley

7.6c to the 13th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
15 February 2024 10:25:38
IMANSF22              7.3c             Nick's - 1BATH75        8.4c
Metcheck               8.05c           Anomaly          3.85c
Netweather            8.42c           Anomaly          4.23c
Peasedown St John  8.58c         Anomaly          3.21c.      




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
15 February 2024 12:33:56
Reckon it'll be over 7.0C - could be an 8.0C
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Spring Sun Winter Dread
15 February 2024 13:32:14
8c this month would surely make this one of the warmest ever winters overall too
Bertwhistle
15 February 2024 14:14:53
HadCET 7.7°C to 14th. Up slightly and today will nudge it up a tad more.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Bertwhistle
15 February 2024 14:22:32

8c this month would surely make this one of the warmest ever winters overall too

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 



Indeed, although to take the cap it would have to be about 8.9 due to the phenomenal December of 2015. December hasn't made the top 10 and January the top 40. Notwithstanding, even if February falls short of 7°C, we could still be in the top 10.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
cultman1
15 February 2024 14:30:23
18 degrees here in Fulham  very strange 
Stormchaser
16 February 2024 11:39:58
I've seen some big seasonal and mid-range forecast model failures in my time but this one really takes the biscuit.

My post here gives a sense of how poor the 2nd week modelling proved to be:
https://x.com/peacockreports/status/1758450803331744096?s=20 

So why has this been the case? This is a very important question in the field of meteorology, because the usual sources of large error haven't been in play this time:
- The MJO did in fact propagate across the tropical Pacific at high amplitude
- Atmospheric angular momentum has increased to high levels as anticipated
- The polar vortex has been no stronger than average and is now undergoing a strong weakening (at least a minor SSW, possibly major).

All of this points toward establishment of high-latitude blocking with a focus to the NW of the UK. Yet this has barely managed to get going this month and that looks to remain the case going forward. So what gives?

To answer that, I believe we must turn to the North Atlantic sea temperature anomaly pattern:
https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.gif 

In the past couple of weeks, the tropical and eastern subtropical regions have been near or at record-warm levels for the time of year.
Meanwhile, importantly, the remainder of the basin has been largely near average. This is a change from earlier in the winter, when anomalous warmth dominated the northern reaches, making for a 'tripole' pattern conducive to a -NAO, which we did see at times in Jan.

Without that, the equator-pole temperature gradient has become exceptionally strong. That means we simultaneously have an increased atmospheric gradient, which accelerates the jet stream, and a lot more rising motion in the tropics, where the rising component to the Hadley cell is located.

My take is that this combo has both strengthened the Azores high and made it more difficult for Atlantic troughs to become negatively tilted and 'disrupt' against ridges that are attempting to become high-latitude blocking features. This means they've nearly always overrun such ridges, pushing them back toward the subtropics, when otherwise this probably wouldn't have occurred so much of the time.

The magnitude of this effect has well exceeded what, it appears, anyone had envisioned, although that is admittedly assuming that the higher CET estimates in here are tied to a general distrust of extended range modelling - forgive me if I'm wrong there.

Even the Met Office were forecasting increased likelihood of cold weather for mid-Feb until relatively short notice - and we know they are not ones to do so lightly.

CET competition wise, this is going to be a tough one to take, as not only is it a large error, but I unwittingly took far more of a gamble than I thought I would be, having expected to see a lot more below average estimates for the month. Due to the lack of a cap on the error added each month, this might be the point that, for the first time in 16 years, I have to throw in the towel because it would take a minor miracle to recover to a respectable position from such a heavy hit.
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gavin D
16 February 2024 13:20:55
Hadley

8.1c to the 15th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
16 February 2024 13:51:47
IMANSF22                7.9c              Nicks' - 1BATH75          8.7c
Metceck                   8.33c                Anomaly        4.33c
Netweather              8 .73c               Anomaly        4.13c
Peasedown S John   8.91c                Anomaly        3.21c.                     




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Snowshoe
16 February 2024 15:13:48
Daily mean was 13.7°C on the 15th. I think that's a record for February. 

Last year we didn't reach that temperature until May.
Retron
16 February 2024 16:22:13

Daily mean was 13.7°C on the 15th. I think that's a record for February. 

Last year we didn't reach that temperature until May.

Originally Posted by: Snowshoe 


Well spotted - yes, it's far and away a February record, doubtless the first of many CET records to be set this year. The mean only gets that high in early June!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_meantemp_cet_2024.png 
Leysdown, north Kent
Hungry Tiger
16 February 2024 22:05:41

Hadley

8.1c to the 15th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Not surprised really.  Still incredible though.  🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Snowshoe
16 February 2024 22:18:38

Well spotted - yes, it's far and away a February record, doubtless the first of many CET records to be set this year. The mean only gets that high in early June!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_meantemp_cet_2024.png 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Yes, it beat the record set in 2004 by 0.9°C.

Also, it's the warmest day for any winter month.


 
ARTzeman
17 February 2024 12:06:08
IMANSF22                7.9c              Nicks'- 1BATH75           9.44c
Metcheck                 8.44c            Anomaly            4.34c
Netweather              8.85c           Anomaly            4.66c
Peasedown St John  8.7c            Anomaly            3.33c.         




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Ally Pally Snowman
17 February 2024 12:19:47

Yes, it beat the record set in 2004 by 0.9°C.

Also, it's the warmest day for any winter month.


 

Originally Posted by: Snowshoe 



Incredible. 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
17 February 2024 12:55:07
Hadley

8.3c to the 16th

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
18 February 2024 11:36:31
IMANSF22           8.3c           NICKS' IBATH75       9.6c
Metcheck            8.62c         Anomaly         4.42c
Netweather         9.97c         Anomaly         4.78c
Peasedown St John  9.13c    Anomaly         3.76c.   




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
18 February 2024 12:57:38
Hadley

8.4c to the 17th
4.6c above the 61 to 90 average
4.0c above the 81 to 10 average
Hungry Tiger
18 February 2024 14:30:55

Hadley

8.4c to the 17th
4.6c above the 61 to 90 average
4.0c above the 81 to 10 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Impressive. I wonder where we'll be next weekend. Could still be 8.0C. 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
18 February 2024 17:38:52

Impressive. I wonder where we'll be next weekend. Could still be 8.0C. 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Impressive indeed!  You just have to wonder where it’ll stop. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
springsunshine
18 February 2024 18:55:27
[quote=Caz;1567436]Impressive indeed!  You just have to wonder where it’ll stop. 

Lets hope it doesn`t and winter,what little of it there was, is now behind us and spring has well and truly sprung😀
ARTzeman
19 February 2024 13:13:12
IMANSF22              8.3c                Nicks' 1Bath 75           8.9c
Metcheck               8.70c               Anomaly                     4.50c
Netweather            9.1c                Anomaly                      4.96c
Peasedown St John 9.1c               Anomaly                      3.73c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Ally Pally Snowman
19 February 2024 13:29:57
8.6c now to the 18th.

That's probably the high.  It's still unclear how much of a cool down the final week will be. But I think a final figure of about 7c - 7.5c ish is likely.  Probably a top 5 all time mild February. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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