ARTzeman
10 February 2024 14:56:00
IMANSF22            6.7c              Nicks, 1BATH 75        8.15c
Metcheck             8.05c             Anomaly                   1.85c
Netweather          5.56c             Anomaly                   4.39c
Peasedwn St John  6.51c           Anomaly                   1.14c.
     




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
11 February 2024 11:14:57
Imansf22                7.2c            Nicks' - 1 Bath 75         8.5c
Metcheck               7.95c          Anomaly           3.75c
Netweather            8.53c         Anomaly            4.35c
Peasedown St John   8.77c      Anomaly            3.40c. 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
11 February 2024 13:02:33
HadCET 7.9°C to 10th. Edging back up after the cold 'moment'. Here at least there are a few more bright days to complement the mild grey.
I am well off the mark prediction-wise, again.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Gavin D
11 February 2024 13:13:45
Hadley

7.9c to the 10th

4.1c above the 61 to 90 average
3.2c above the 81 to 10 average
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
11 February 2024 22:21:20
The all time February CET record is 7.9C way back in 1779. Oldest month record still standing. 

It would need to go some to challenge this but not impossible given the coming few days. 
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 February 2024 05:47:29
Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

HadCET 7.9°C to 10th. Edging back up after the cold 'moment'. Here at least there are a few more bright days to complement the mild grey.
I am well off the mark prediction-wise, again.

At the moment it’s looking like we were all off the mark. There have been a couple of days recently, yesterday included, that have had a distinct feel, smell and sound of Spring. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
12 February 2024 10:29:49
IMANSF22                  7.2c               Nicks, 1BATH 75        3.5c
Metcheck                   7.74c              Anomaly           3.54c
Netweather               8.38c              Anomaly            4.19c
Peasedown st John   8.31c              Anomaly             2.94c.
         




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
12 February 2024 13:30:41
Hadley

7.8c to the 11th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.1c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
13 February 2024 11:04:54
IMANSF22                 6.9c              Nicks' 1Bath75          8.0c
Metcheck                  7.60c              Anomaly                  3.40c
Netweather               8.16c              Anomaly                  3.97c
Peasedown St John   8.12c              Anomaly                  3.75c. 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
13 February 2024 13:17:01
Hadley

7.6c to the 12th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
14 February 2024 11:35:30
IMANSF22                 7.9c             Nicks, IBath 75      8.4c
Metcheck                  7.73c           Anomaly         3.53c
Netweather               8.13c           Anomaly         3.24c
Peasedown St John   8.58c           Anomaly         3.31c
 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
14 February 2024 14:46:48
Hadley

7.6c to the 13th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
15 February 2024 10:25:38
IMANSF22              7.3c             Nick's - 1BATH75        8.4c
Metcheck               8.05c           Anomaly          3.85c
Netweather            8.42c           Anomaly          4.23c
Peasedown St John  8.58c         Anomaly          3.21c.      




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
15 February 2024 12:33:56
Reckon it'll be over 7.0C - could be an 8.0C
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Spring Sun Winter Dread
15 February 2024 13:32:14
8c this month would surely make this one of the warmest ever winters overall too
Bertwhistle
15 February 2024 14:14:53
HadCET 7.7°C to 14th. Up slightly and today will nudge it up a tad more.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Bertwhistle
15 February 2024 14:22:32
Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

8c this month would surely make this one of the warmest ever winters overall too



Indeed, although to take the cap it would have to be about 8.9 due to the phenomenal December of 2015. December hasn't made the top 10 and January the top 40. Notwithstanding, even if February falls short of 7°C, we could still be in the top 10.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
cultman1
15 February 2024 14:30:23
18 degrees here in Fulham  very strange 
Stormchaser
16 February 2024 11:39:58
I've seen some big seasonal and mid-range forecast model failures in my time but this one really takes the biscuit.

My post here gives a sense of how poor the 2nd week modelling proved to be:
https://x.com/peacockreports/status/1758450803331744096?s=20 

So why has this been the case? This is a very important question in the field of meteorology, because the usual sources of large error haven't been in play this time:
- The MJO did in fact propagate across the tropical Pacific at high amplitude
- Atmospheric angular momentum has increased to high levels as anticipated
- The polar vortex has been no stronger than average and is now undergoing a strong weakening (at least a minor SSW, possibly major).

All of this points toward establishment of high-latitude blocking with a focus to the NW of the UK. Yet this has barely managed to get going this month and that looks to remain the case going forward. So what gives?

To answer that, I believe we must turn to the North Atlantic sea temperature anomaly pattern:
https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.gif 

In the past couple of weeks, the tropical and eastern subtropical regions have been near or at record-warm levels for the time of year.
Meanwhile, importantly, the remainder of the basin has been largely near average. This is a change from earlier in the winter, when anomalous warmth dominated the northern reaches, making for a 'tripole' pattern conducive to a -NAO, which we did see at times in Jan.

Without that, the equator-pole temperature gradient has become exceptionally strong. That means we simultaneously have an increased atmospheric gradient, which accelerates the jet stream, and a lot more rising motion in the tropics, where the rising component to the Hadley cell is located.

My take is that this combo has both strengthened the Azores high and made it more difficult for Atlantic troughs to become negatively tilted and 'disrupt' against ridges that are attempting to become high-latitude blocking features. This means they've nearly always overrun such ridges, pushing them back toward the subtropics, when otherwise this probably wouldn't have occurred so much of the time.

The magnitude of this effect has well exceeded what, it appears, anyone had envisioned, although that is admittedly assuming that the higher CET estimates in here are tied to a general distrust of extended range modelling - forgive me if I'm wrong there.

Even the Met Office were forecasting increased likelihood of cold weather for mid-Feb until relatively short notice - and we know they are not ones to do so lightly.

CET competition wise, this is going to be a tough one to take, as not only is it a large error, but I unwittingly took far more of a gamble than I thought I would be, having expected to see a lot more below average estimates for the month. Due to the lack of a cap on the error added each month, this might be the point that, for the first time in 16 years, I have to throw in the towel because it would take a minor miracle to recover to a respectable position from such a heavy hit.
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gavin D
16 February 2024 13:20:55
Hadley

8.1c to the 15th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average
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