Hadley

7.8c to the 27th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

I'm relieved there was a closer bunching of guesses this month. I'm heading downwards at a rapid rate, but it could have been worse!!

 

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Hadley

7.8c to the 27th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

So we've lost the record.
2nd place is this.  7.5C  1869 .

 

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Yes, we are all scoring well this month - ho-hum. Will March be closer to its average? Or, will it be much colder to bring a rolling 3-month average back down?? Let's see. Keep it going everyone. Cheers.

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What a month! I thought it would have been cooler. Let's see what March brings.

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Wish I'd gone for higher.    🙂  

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IMANSF22              7.6c              Nick's- 1BATH75        8.0c 
Metcheck               7.78c                 Anomaly       3.58c
Netweather           8.25c                 Anomaly       4.06c
Peasedown St John  8.05c             Anomaly       2.68c.  

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Hadley

7.8c to the 28th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

So in the end, even the colder conditions for late in the month were watered down sufficiently that we ended up chasing a new high CET record, (most likely) only just falling short.

Who'd have thought we'd be anywhere near that given all the extended & seasonal modelling in the run-up to this month?

Definitely the most extreme case of dynamically-based forecast models falling flat that I can recall.
To be fair to them though, the usual sub-seasonal driving forces were all pointing toward an at least slightly colder than average month as of late Jan. Had we seen a true major SSW, or even just not had the unusual reflective variety, things would very likely have turned out that way.

I suppose I might as well continue estimating for the rest of this year just in case it goes stupendously well.

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You should definitely keep in the comp SC your analysis is very much appreciated in this thread. As you say this February has been a bit of a freak month with all the Pros getting it wrong. A month that will be analysed for many years to come as to why the models were so wrong.
 

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7.8c looks like the final figure. Not quite the record but the warmest for 245 years. 
 

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Congratulations to Windywillow - it's not often that you can confidently say that you've won the monthly competition with just over half of the month gone and still be over a degree out on the final figure!
What an extraordinary month.

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7.8c looks like the final figure. Not quite the record but the warmest for 245 years. 
 

So it came in a close second.
Phew.

 

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Can anyone help me find the best way to get the final CET Figures for each completed month to 2 decimal places. Was able to use Hadley site for January as first month do the year but need help going forward. 

Thank you. 
J
 

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Can anyone help me find the best way to get the final CET Figures for each completed month to 2 decimal places. Was able to use Hadley site for January as first month do the year but need help going forward. 

Thank you. 
J
 

I used to key the Hadley Max and Min data into Excel

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2024.txt 

Go into the Hadley CET data address bar and change the word ' Mean' to 'Max'.
Do likewise for the min, then take the average in Excel.

It saves time at month end if you collect the data throughout the month. However be careful as they sometimes change the earlier data.

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Can anyone help me find the best way to get the final CET Figures for each completed month to 2 decimal places. Was able to use Hadley site for January as first month do the year but need help going forward. 

Thank you. 
J
 

7.78 for Feb 2024

I just noticed Frank's comments above and that is how I do it too - although taking the average of the all the cetmeans is generally accurate enough without going back to all the daily maxs and mins

Incidentally the files Frank mentioned are internet text files so it is not necessary to rekey anything. I just highlight and copy the data display and paste it into notepad where you can open that file in Excel and pull out the average directly after a small amount of deleting unneeded rows and columns. Saves time and eliminates keying errors

 

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February Results 

Sorry it comes out as such a mess this forum is not easy to post tabled information and doesn't allow me to upload as an image or in any formatted way. 

Name     Feb 24    Variance                    
Actual     7.78    
windywillow             6.90    -0.88
kendalian                  6.70    -1.08
gezm                   6.65    -1.13
grandad                 6.40    -1.38
snowshoe              6.30    -1.48
bolty                      6.30    -1.48
jmm2005                 6.20    -1.58
hungry tiger               6.00    -1.78
frank h                      5.95    -1.83
rickm                     5.95    -1.83
bertwhistle                5.81    -1.97
Gavin D                   5.80    -1.98
caz                          5.80    -1.98
lanky                          5.62    -2.16
sussex snow magnet     5.50    -2.28
dingle rob              5.50    -2.28
scillydave                    5.45    -2.33
artzeman                   5.37    -2.41
ap snowman             5.30    -2.48
Spring Sun Winter Dread    5.20    -2.58
Dickieboy68             5.11    -2.67
Norseman     5.05    -2.73
1991 - 2020 Average     4.97    -2.81
redmoons                   4.95    -2.83
Saint Snow     4.90    -2.88
col                               4.87    -2.91
taylor1740              4.80    -2.98
Splinter    4.79    -2.99
Weather Idle     4.75    -3.03
stormchaser              4.69    -3.09
All time CET average     3.92    -3.86



 

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Year-to-date positions we have joint leaders as of February 

 Name     Variance to Feb  
gezm                 1.72
kendalian          1.72
bolty                 1.92
rickm                 1.94
hungry tiger      2.04
frank h                 2.13
lanky                     2.28
grandad             2.42
caz                     2.54
sussex snow magnet 2.62
jmm2005             2.62
scillydave               2.69
snowshoe         2.72
Spring Sun Winter Dread 2.74
windywillow         2.84
1991 - 2020 Average 2.85
dingle rob         2.94
Norseman         2.97
col                      3.03
Dickieboy68       3.04
Gavin D               3.12
artzeman               3.15
Weather Idle       3.49
taylor1740         3.52
Saint Snow        3.52
bertwhistle        3.59
stormchaser        3.63
Splinter             3.86
redmoons        4.34
All time CET average  5.31
ap snowman         5.52
 

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Well done windy!  Tough luck for everyone in February. 

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