Sorry I haven’t had much chance to post in Januarys forum, January is the peak of self-assessment tax return season, and my accountancy firm has been inundated with people who have left their returns to the last minute.

Moving on in the end we had 29 entries for this year’s Competition in January.

As we look towards to the last month of the winter what will it have in store for us.

Official CET average for February 3.8C

Coldest since 1970 most recent coldest in top 5, 1991
1986     -1.00
1979     1.30
1991     1.60
1983     1.80
1985     2.20

Warmest since 1970, Most recent top 5 warmest 2022
1990     7.3
1998     7.2
2002     7
2019     6.9
2022     6.9

Last 5 All significantly warmer 1.5 – 3.1c warmer and on average an insane + 2.62c to CET
2023     6.5
2022     6.9
2021     5.3
2020     6.5
2019     6.9

Ok so now for some straw clutching for those who prefer their wintry weather in Winter, of the last 15 Januarys since 1970 that had a CET between 5 – 6c (Assuming this January will come in at somewhere in the 5C’s) 5 Februarys were warmer while 10 were colder that the proceeding January.

Not included in that is the biggest monthly switch between January to February which in the reference period I am using  being 1970 onwards was 1983 with a balmy 6.7c for January and a distinctly chilly 1.8c for February.

Good luck, please submit entries by 23:59 31st January 2024 I'll post mine on this page at some point over the next couple of days 
 

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Hi Justin,

Hi - just stickied it for you as promised.   🙂

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thank you. 

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Hi Justin,

Is the February CET you posted the 1961 -1990 one? 
I ask because it may be worth having the 1991 - 2020 one for reference up as well as you did in January. I think it's 4.9c
 

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Looks like there could be a significant cold spell mid month. But it's to far out to be certain. If it doesn't happen it could be an exceptionally mild month. Basically an impossible guess. 
 

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Despite some hints of cooler weather  see it going any other way but another warmer than average month. So I’m going with 6.2c for February 

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Can I have a guess at 5.05C please.
 

Hi Justin. Hi - I'll put my figure on here as you have. 
I'll go for .  6.0C. I think we'll have some lengthy mild spells.  

Cheers Hungry Tiger.  

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5.8c please
 

I've probably gone too warm for this month too lol 
Oh well,. time will tell.

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A very challenging month to anticipate the CET for owing to the high uncertainty regarding how far south the mean polar boundary position is later next week (a few hundred miles making the difference between mild and cold), plus MJO-led possibility of significant cold weather later in the month, this further complicated by signs we might see yet another SSW and of the sort that can split the polar vortex.

January was tricky enough with its SSW possibilities but February has said 'hold my beer'!

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Everyone from January has submitted for February, all bar one received before midnight last night bar one just slightly late.

Everyone has gone above the All-time CET average for the month with 7 opting for a colder February than the 1991 – 2020 average with 22 warmer than this.

I will load January’s results as soon as I have the final figure for January safe to say a lot of us went for a colder month. There was a 5.C spread between Januarys warmest and coldest predictions, Februarys is much tighter with just a 2.21C spread.

All time CET average                     3.92
Stormchaser                                   4.69
Weather Idle                                   4.75
Splinter                                            4.79
Taylor1740                                       4.80
Col                                                    4.87
Saint Snow                                      4.90
Redmoons                                       4.95
1991 - 2020 Average                      4.97
Norseman                                        5.05
Dickieboy68                                     5.11
Spring Sun Winter Dread               5.20
Ap snowman                                   5.30
Artzeman                                         5.37
Scillydave                                         5.45
Sussex snow magnet                     5.50
Dingle rob                                        5.50
Lanky                                               5.62
Gavin D                                            5.80
Caz                                                   5.80
Bertwhistle                                      5.81
Frank h                                             5.95
Rickm                                               5.95
Hungry tiger                                    6.00
Jmm2005                                         6.20
Snowshoe                                         6.30
Bolty                                                  6.30
Grandad                                            6.40
Gezm                                                 6.65
Kendalian                                         6.70
Windywillow                                     6.90

Good Luck everyone
 

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I'm officially in shock at being 2nd coldest in the list 😐

Clearly there's not much faith put behind MJO-led cold spells of note, which I can somewhat understand after relatively subdued outcomes in recent years. In fact, I've only dared go as low as I have (yet only slightly below the 1991-2020 average) on the basis that all we need is some really cold nights, which can occur under a mid-latitude blocking scenario.

To be honest, with the MJO as strongly active as it is and the polar vortex not looking likely to put up a strong fight, this is one of those 'if it's ever going to produce something of note...' situations. While still not a guarantee, it will be scientifically disappointing if it comes to not much (personally, on the other hand, I'm all for an early spring!).

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I do always like seeing you go for cold in winter! And, whilst I know there's work reasons, it's a pity we don't see more of your analysis.

 

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IMANSF22             6.7c             Nicks' -1Bath 75         6.7c
Metcheck               5.81c          Anomaly               1.61c
Netweather            5.58c          Anomaly               1.39c
Peasedown St John 6.6c           Anomaly                -1.28c.  

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The boat is not really being pushed out either on cold or mild here. A conservative set of predictions , mine included !

I do think there will come a year when we hit 8 or 9C CET in Feb, whether it is achieved through 2002 style washout zonality and high minima , or 1998/2019 warm dry conditions with 18c+ afternoons 

 

Hadley

5.5c to the 1st
1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

IMANSF22               9.0c               Nicks, - 1BATH75         8.3c
Metcheck                7.85c             Anomaly                 3.65
Netweather             7.72c             Anomaly                 3.53c
Peasedown St john  8.3c              Anomaly                 2.82c. 

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Hadley

7.0c to the 2nd

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

IMANSF22                8.6c                 Nicks' - 1BATH75         8.c
Metcheck                 8.72c               Anomaly            4.52c
Netweather              8.75c               Anomaly            4.56c
Peasedown St John  8.97                 Anomaly            3.69c.              

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Hadley

8.3c to the 3rd

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
3.7c above the 81 to 10 average

IMANSF22                 9.0c              Nicks, -1BATH 75            8.9c
Metcheck                   9.11c            Anomaly               4.91c
Netweather                9.29c            Anomaly               5.1c
Peasedown st John    8.97c            Anomaly               3.60c.

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Just one of the warmest ever starts to February.  No biggy.


Hadley 

8.9c to the 4th

5.1c above 61- 90 average

 

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2002 and 2004 spring to mind (no pun intended) as possible contenders to that throne 

 

IMANSF22                9.5c               Nicks' - 1BATH 75         9.3c
Mtcheck                   9.43c              Anomaly                      5.23c
Netweather              9.49c              Anomaly                      5.3c
Peasedown St John  9.38c              Anomaly                      4.0c.

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