Temp charts from WX show the advance of warmer weather into W Europe but in a more measured way than yesterday i.e. slower. In week 1 there is still a cool area from Norway down the N Sea into Germany but in week 2 continental Europe has levelled off to normal for the time of year, with the occasional extra warm patch e.g. SW France & E Russia. Any extra warmth scheduled for Britain yesterday is now restricted to the S Coast, and the rest looks no better than norm. However the rainfall pattern has also shifted with a large very dry area extending from the Atlantic into Britain for both weeks; areas of rain along the N shores of the Med (esp Spain week 2) and up into Russia.

Jet running well N of Britain over the next two weeks bar a brief dip to the S for the BH weekend.

GFS Op - HP moving up from the SW to its greatest extent on Fri 26th 1030mb just W of Ireland before retreating W-wards allowing LP to run S from Iceland 1005mb Shetland Mon 29th (BH Mon looking cool but dry for most). The HP re-establishes and moves NE 1030mb N Sea Fri 2nd finally settling N of Scotland Wed 7th with E-lies for England.

ECM - tracks the LP Mon 29th further E, through Sweden, and HP continues to cover Britain before moving NE as above.

GEFS - temps up and down (esp variable in Scotland) but not far from norm until Sun 28th after which consistently a degree or two above norm and slowly rising into June, not as warm as shown yesterday. Dry at first, some runs show small amounts of rain in first week of June but almost none in NE.

---

Indeed - even the forecast for this week has already gone askew with thick grey cloud and just 13C at 10.00am after a sunny week being forecast.

---

Yep , bit of a wobble from two of the big 4 this morning with both GFS and UKMO showing a northerly for this Bank Holiday weekend.  ECM and GEM look much more promising though with high pressure very much in charge.  Interesting 12s coming up later.
 

---

Well we finally reached 23c in the UK yesterday.  23.3c in Porthmadog.  Latest since 1985 I believe. 
 

---

The SE and London area seems to be struggling to get to the low 20s degrees due to continuing stubborn cloud cover and cool NE winds a set up which I believe will continue throughout this week and into the BH weekend ? 

The SE and London area seems to be struggling to get to the low 20s degrees due to continuing stubborn cloud cover and cool NE winds a set up which I believe will continue throughout this week and into the BH weekend ? 

Yep cloud cover becoming irritating now in the East. 

GFS 6z continues its theme with spoiling the Bank holiday . Cool and cloudy. 

Ecm is much better but I doubt the GFS will be that wrong at that range. 
 

---

Yep cloud cover becoming irritating now in the East. 

GFS 6z continues its theme with spoiling the Bank holiday . Cool and cloudy. 

Ecm is much better but I doubt the GFS will be that wrong at that range. 
 

Last night's BBC Weather for the Week Ahead is already looking out of date. It showed a steady warming through the Bank Holiday and into the following week. The last 2 GFS Ops runs are showing the opposite with a significant cooling over the same time period. Although near the bottom of the range, they are not outliers. 

Feels like jam continues to be delayed for large parts of the UK. 

---

Today's Weather For The Week Ahead on the BBC is still going for a fine and warm Bank Holiday weekend with temperatures of 23-24C widespread. They are sticking to their guns. The GFS is still going for a cool northerly interlude for the same time period.

Who will be right?

Latest UKMO video forecast also sticking with high pressure and warm weather for the weekend

Today's Weather For The Week Ahead on the BBC is still going for a fine and warm Bank Holiday weekend with temperatures of 23-24C widespread. They are sticking to their guns. The GFS is still going for a cool northerly interlude for the same time period.


Who will be right?

It's going to be very interesting to see how it plays out some sort of northerly drift looks likely now but how potent and how chilly is unknown.  
 

---

Well sadly, one thing is certain. It is going to be a very.... very short summer.  It does not even feel like we have advanced beyond early April.

Most of us rely on titbits of summer weather in the Spring and that almost never fails.  This year, it has failed, and how!

The least amount of warm days since 1985 and 6 reminds me of the dreadful  summers of 1985/6. 

Part of me wants to believe that the slowed Jet stream will stick us in a southerly wind for the next three months , but I have lost hope to be honest.

---

Well the ECM 12z sticks mostly to its guns. High pressure slap bang over the UK for most of the run. Warm sunny Bank holiday weekend for most.
 

---

Well sadly, one thing is certain. It is going to be a very.... very short summer.  It does not even feel like we have advanced beyond early April.

Most of us rely on titbits of summer weather in the Spring and that almost never fails.  This year, it has failed, and how!

The least amount of warm days since 1985 and 6 reminds me of the dreadful  summers of 1985/6. 

Part of me wants to believe that the slowed Jet stream will stick us in a southerly wind for the next three months , but I have lost hope to be honest.

Be helpful if you could note your location in your signature, matey. 

---

Be helpful if you could note your location in your signature, matey. 

If you check his details he’s in London.

---

850s temps for my area for Bank holiday 29th.

GEM   12c
UKMO  -4c
GFS      3c.

So expect anything from Winter Summer or Spring lol.
UKMO is ridiculously cold.
 

---

WX temp charts very disappointing. The promised warmth across W Europe has gone from the charts; not only is the cool/cold patch from Norway south to Germany still present in week 1 but this then moves westward to include France and Britain. It is followed by something warmer but this only reaches Finland and Poland in week 2, and the general warm-up from the south is missing. At least Britain is very dry for week 1 (incl BH) with the persistent band of rain from Spain to Turkey and northwards to W Russia; then in week 2 it's still in the Med but the rain in Russia moves westwards and begins to affect Britain.

GFS Op - HP moving up from the SW to peak 1035mb Fri 26th over Britain; persisting but moving to just W of Scotland leaving Britain in a light N-ly drift while LP moves S over Scandinavia 1005 mb Denmark Wed 31st. This LP then nudges closer to Britain while pressure rises behind it and by Tue 6th is 1010mb S Scotland with its own small cold pool, and HP centred well to SW and NE.

ECM - resembles GFS but as yesterday keeps the LP a bit further E over Scandinavia, affecting Britain less.

GEFS - a brief spell of warmer weather for the BH weekend (more up-and-down in W & NW) but after that, unlike yesterday, the mean is no better than close to seasonal norm (a little better in Scotland), albeit dragged down by op & control runs - there are quite a number of warmer end members. Some rain from the beginning of June onwards, driest in far NE.

---

ECM still holding firm stunning run this morning. Warm air stays over the UK until day 10.
 

---

Be helpful if you could note your location in your signature, matey. 

I've assumed somewhere near Aberdeen as it's certainly no location near me

---

GFS 6z is stupidly cold. Frosty Bank holiday. Max of 11c for many. So different to ECM. Something has to give soon.
 

---

Indeed.

---