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Jiries
24 May 2023 12:42:12

Most of the output now is 21c at best high teens for most though. Over the Bank holiday weekend.  

GFS now is consistently warming it up from about the 2nd June.  The next chase for the illusive warmth. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It show how bad on this situation to search for warmth, and quite worrying the Med and even in Cyprus are having very unseasonal cool weather which mean UK cannot tap into but only get available home grown warmth like up to 21C at best for this time of the year.   
chelseagirl
24 May 2023 12:44:32

Looks alright to me, anywhere 30-40 miles inland from the east coast will see 22-23c during the day and sunshine, what is not to like.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



And being 17 miles directly S of The Wash, it can be as sunny as it wants to, it is still nowhere near forecast temps due to the wind. 😢
The Fenlands of Cambridgeshire
Ally Pally Snowman
25 May 2023 06:44:39
GFS and UKMO move towards the ECM with the high pressure more centred over the UK . So the stupidly cold temps have gone. Mid 20s could be back on the table next week. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
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25 May 2023 07:04:25
WX temp charts have stabilised on an increasingly warm W Europe, with some of that warmth just about creeping into S Britain; cool in Finland and the Baltic States but really hot east of the Urals.  Very dry from Britain to Germany to the Baltic in week 1, this area shrinking from the south bringing S England rather close to some very wet weather over France and Spain week 2. Patches of rain in most other areas of Europe in both weeks.

GFS Op - HP moving in from the SW to peak 1035mb Scotland Tue 30th, drifting towards Iceland before returning 1025mb generally across Britain Thu 8th but then collapsing with Britain under slack LP (1010mb English Channel) Sat 10th. LPs on the fringe with edge effects - 1004mb N Norway Sun 4th injecting some cooler air into the HP circulation for the E; LP coming and going over France esp 1010mb Biscay Tue 6th with E-lies for the south coast.

ECM - similar to GFS; a more definite N-ly influence from Sun 4th

GEFS - becoming warmish with temps around 3 or 4C above norm around 1st June with caveat as in posts above for those close to N Sea with cool sea temps (the sharp dip noted yesterday Mon 29th now only affecting the N), most ens members declining to norm later, more quickly in Scotland, but op run in a cold minority from Mon 6th. Possibility of rain in one run or another from Thu 1st, more likely in south and later in west. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
cultman1
25 May 2023 10:25:22
Still looking predominantly cool for the SE especially on Bank Holiday Monday with a keen strong NE breeze and minimal sun 
DEW
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26 May 2023 07:13:20
WX temps disappointing compared to yesterday. Week 1 keeping only modest warmth across N Europe and no longer any suggestion that Britain should be included. In week 2 the cool conditions over Finland and Russia shown in week 1 move westwards to affect Britain (esp Scotland) and Norway while E Europe gets quite hot. In week 1 an area from Britain across to the Baltic is very dry with patchy rain elsewhere in Europe. Then a change from yesterday in week 2 with heavy rain for Pyrenees and Alps, and some in Norway, while Britain on the edge of this area becomes damp esp in S England.

GFS Op - HP peaking over Scotland 1035mb Tue 30th but with NE-lies on its southern edge over England, moving W to near Greenland by Sun 4th with cool N-lies under the influence of LP developing over Norway. This LP becomes a multi-centre trough from Norway to Spain by Thu 8th (incl 1005mb Cornwall), this moving NE to the Baltic 1005mb Sun 11th with N-lies behind it particularly affecting Scotland.

ECM - similar to GFs but the HP only moves partway to Greenland and the Scandinavian LP is further NE (N Norway/Finland) so the N-lies on Mon 5th are only a gentle drift.

GEFS - mean temp rising to a degree or two above norm, or more in the far N, for a few days around Thu 1st, (for Scotland this rise is interrupted by a dip Mon 28th) cooling to norm by Sun 11th (op run is one of a few very cold ens members  by Thu 8th), chances of a little rain from Sun 4th. Eastern coastal locations may well be cooler with the wind off the N Sea than shown in GEFS profiles.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
fairweather
26 May 2023 13:20:20
The drought has started .No rain here for the last two weeks. So with no rain likely here in the next two weeks it looks like the next block of weather lasting for several weeks has started. This is following the cloudy, cool wet block of several weeks. What happened to "changeable weather"? !
S.Essex, 42m ASL
GezM
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26 May 2023 13:51:21

The drought has started .No rain here for the last two weeks. So with no rain likely here in the next two weeks it looks like the next block of weather lasting for several weeks has started. This is following the cloudy, cool wet block of several weeks. What happened to "changeable weather"? !

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Indeed! I think I mentioned previously that there now appears to be approximate 6 week cycles to weather but that these can either switch after those 6 weeks or continue for another 6 weeks. So, for example you could get 12 weeks of wet weather followed by 12 weeks of dry weather, then 6 of wet and so on. This is all very generalised of course. We rarely seem to get a few days unsettled, followed by a few dry any more. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
GezM
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26 May 2023 13:55:40
Hints that (finally!) the near continent is going to heat up over the next 3 weeks or so. Nothing dramatic but France, Belgium, Germany look likely to get some rather warmer weather than what they've experienced for most of 2023. Always a vital ingredient for some 'proper' heat advecting to the UK. 

Also some hints of a slackening of pressure near the UK which might allow plume conditions although increasing the risk of showery activity.  

All just potential at this stage. 

 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Retron
26 May 2023 13:55:49

The drought has started .No rain here for the last two weeks. So with no rain likely here in the next two weeks it looks like the next block of weather lasting for several weeks has started. This is following the cloudy, cool wet block of several weeks. What happened to "changeable weather"? !

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


It'll be Sunday here for the official drought, being the 15th day with no rain (the official definition is less than 2.5mm rain IIRC, but it'll be zero here!)

The last drought we had was during February, so I'm hoping history repeats itself and we have a nice wet late June, all of July and early August. I think I've more chance of winning the lottery though! 🤣

(There is another thing worth noting. Last year's heatwave in July was preceded by plenty of dry weather, and came up from the south where it was also very, very dry and had been for a while. This year couldn't be more different - the precipitation charts show an absolute drenching further south for the foreseeable future. If you asked me to put money on it, I'd say no stupidly high temperatures this year.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png ) 

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
26 May 2023 14:13:39

I'm hoping history repeats itself and we have a nice wet late June, all of July and early August.
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



You really can be a miserable tw*t, mate 🤣

I get you not liking heat, but wet as well??? 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
GezM
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26 May 2023 14:27:23



(There is another thing worth noting. Last year's heatwave in July was preceded by plenty of dry weather, and came up from the south where it was also very, very dry and had been for a while. This year couldn't be more different - the precipitation charts show an absolute drenching further south for the foreseeable future. If you asked me to put money on it, I'd say no stupidly high temperatures this year.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png ) 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Agreed. Warm and wettish is what I'm expecting for the overall UK summer too (as opposed to hot and dry). 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Retron
26 May 2023 15:31:46

You really can be a miserable tw*t, mate 🤣

I get you not liking heat, but wet as well??? 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


After last year's crapfest, I just want a normal summer - which means frequent rain. Not floods or anything like that, but bearing in mind the average combined rainfall for June to August (91-20) is over 130mm even here... it would be nice to see that, evenly spread through the summer.

Sadly it seems for quite some time now that when a pattern settles in it sticks around for ages. We're currently in a slightly cool / drought pattern, but sooner or later it'll break. As mentioned, it's likely to be a less settled pattern IMO when it next changes, and with that cooler northerlies or NE'lies are unlikely for long - hence warmer than average, which is essentially the default temperature setting anyway.

And frankly after last year's horror show (and yes, 40C is a horror show, it hurt with every breath when I was out in it, lugging computers around at work, and I ended up having to pay for a hotel for the night as my own house was uninhabitable), I would welcome a year where it didn't even get to 32C with open arms!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
26 May 2023 16:03:39
Never really understood why a lot of people hate summer rains. To me, they are beautiful. They feed the earth and feed the spirit. Although even here in Ireland, rain is becoming so rare during the summer now that ever little drop is becoming something of a treasure. 
 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Zubzero
26 May 2023 20:48:05
Dont remember seeing temps like this at this time of year before. Few runs breaking 20C 
and it is normally unsettled weather that keeps temps suppressed at this time off year, not mostly settled conditions.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=303&y=111 


 
White Meadows
26 May 2023 21:58:11
Indeed the cool spring continues into what looks to be an ever age start to summer temp wise.

A very Noteworthy dry period looks more likely each day now, and for the foreseeable …even in the much touted Met office ‘wet wet wet’ first half of June for the south. 
Some poor mid term forecasting in what is usually quite a predictable time of year for the UK, relatively speaking at least. 
Gandalf The White
26 May 2023 23:47:56

Indeed the cool spring continues into what looks to be an ever age start to summer temp wise.

A very Noteworthy dry period looks more likely each day now, and for the foreseeable …even in the much touted Met office ‘wet wet wet’ first half of June for the south. 
Some poor mid term forecasting in what is usually quite a predictable time of year for the UK, relatively speaking at least. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



The predicted position of the high does open the door to low pressure encroaching from the south, so perhaps that’s what the longer range output is suggesting?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
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27 May 2023 05:55:34
WX charts settling down with fairly warm weather for continental Europe after a week 1 cold patch around Poland. By week 2 there is a dividing line running along the coast from Brittany to the Baltic, warmer to the south, cooler to the north with N Norway and Iceland still very much cold. Very dry in week 1 for Britain and other countries bordering the N Sea, some rain in most other places; in week 2 the rain peps up in N Spain, France and the Alps, and gets close to S. Britain.

GFS Op - HP settling over Britain 1035mb Tue 30th (but NE-lies affecting the S) before retreating to Greenland, still dominant enough to keep weather over Britain settled until Sun 4th but then declining and allowing general area of LP over Norway to push air from far N/NE source through the N Sea and down to Spain. The HP then drifts S-wards cutting off direct N-lies but the cooler air has generated LP over France close to S England Sat 10th. The synoptics then return to a 'normal' summer pattern with Azores HP pushing towards Britain and shallow LP over C Europe Mon 12th (but extensive cold LP for Scandinavia)

ECM (yesterday's 12z - I'm going out and not waiting for the 0800 download of the 0z - someone else fill in?) Similar to GFS at first but on Sun 4th the HP starts to drift back from Greenland so the N/NE-lies affect directly only the Baltic, though some of this feeds across to S England as LP on the Continent picks up on an E-ly.

GEFS - modestly warm (or warmer in Scotland after a dip) until about Sun 4th then dropping back to norm (or cooler in Scotland) though ens members increasingly disagree after this date. A few splashes of rain also from then onwards, more so in N.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
AJ*
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27 May 2023 07:01:23

The drought has started .No rain here for the last two weeks. So with no rain likely here in the next two weeks it looks like the next block of weather lasting for several weeks has started. This is following the cloudy, cool wet block of several weeks. What happened to "changeable weather"? !

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Yes, as has been the case for a number of years, we've switched from the wet season to the dry season, which continues for the forseeable.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Ally Pally Snowman
27 May 2023 07:12:59
Only the GFS really going for a northerly.  Other models continue the theme of high pressure but never in a position to produce any heat.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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