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dagspot
26 December 2022 18:12:08

mulling it over.

Originally Posted by: idot 


‘wining’ constantly  😂
Neilston 600ft ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 December 2022 18:18:09
This looks more interesting even if it is from CFS
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=cfs&var=1&run=6&time=696&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
dagspot
26 December 2022 19:15:51

…. even if it is from CFS

Originally Posted by: DEW 


…and almost 4 weeks out! 
Neilston 600ft ASL
marco 79
26 December 2022 19:25:53
[quote=DEW;1502905]This looks more interesting even if it is from CFS
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=cfs&var=1&run=6&time=696&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 Looking at 4000hrs ..1st June looks nice too...Bank that for a bbq..
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 December 2022 19:38:46

…and almost 4 weeks out! 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



More as an illustration of how it's possible for the pattern to change than with any real expectation of reality🤣
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Jive Buddy
26 December 2022 20:46:19
Remember, winter 2023/24 didn't start until 1 Dec/21 Dec 2023. There's still hope!
It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Arbroath 1320
26 December 2022 20:51:15
ECM 12z points to a very snowy Hogmanay weekend for Central Scotland and the Highlands.

All depends on the timing and track of the lows, but there could be a real dumping if it verifies. GFS 12z is similar but UKMO not buying it. 
GGTTH
dagspot
26 December 2022 22:21:59

not buying it. 

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


Nor me. Will be a faux slushfest at best outwith highlands.  Or more likely mild and wet given the range now. 
Neilston 600ft ASL
BJBlake
27 December 2022 08:22:05

Remember, winter 2023/24 didn't start until 1 Dec/21 Dec 2023. There's still hope!

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 

LOL! There is so much error in a 2 week model that anything can happen - with every run there is renewed hope. We are just looking now for any sustained pattern change to trend. Today’s models (GFS and ECM) are showing some more interesting scenarios for colds weather fans this morning. These are beginning to be of interest. We will see if they begin to trend or not...shame though, if it happens, it will be all happening when I’m back at the ‘coal face.’
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 December 2022 08:32:30
A modest move in the direction of colder weather in the WX charts, from quite a restricted area for the time of year in week 1 (Iceland, N Scandinavia, N Russia) the cold air moves back SW-wards to Poland, Ukraine and mountainous areas in W Europe in week 2, but compensated for by (slightly) milder air moving N in the Atlantic - the Scottish Highlands lose their 'blue blob'. Rain/pptn continuing as for some time past to be concentrated on Atlantic coasts, including Britain away from the SE; becoming drier in the rest of W Europe.

GFS Op: 2022 finishes with LP generally to the N of Scotland and HP near Greece with SW-lies pushing across Britain into NW Europe (one LP gets rather close to W Scotland on Fri 30th). Then a very broad area of HP extends steadily N-wards with 1035 mb predicted for places as far apart as Greece, France and Norway on Wed 4th; S-lies for W Britain and N-lies for Russia. This remains in place for a week with minor variations before the final frame has it dropping back S-wards allowing zonal W-lies to re-establish.

ECM not dissimilar, but moves the area of HP N-wards toward the end of its run, centred 1045mb Baltic States, with the hint of a weakE/SE-ly setting up by Fri 6th.

GEFS shows mean temp often above norm esp near Fri 30th and for a longer spell near Fri 6th; near norm between these and later on. Rain centred around Sun 1st and again later Wed 11th. The N misses out on the earlier mild spell (locally some chances of snow in the Highlands); the E doesn't get the rain later on.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
idj20
27 December 2022 10:33:03
Still looking rough and wet for the next few days but thankfully the earlier outputs showing 70 to 80 mph gusts for my location appears to have been toned down somewhat and the trend to more in the way of settled conditions by this time next week seems to be back on course. 

If I can't have any decent snowy weather, the next best thing is a good run of benign mild & bright conditions that saves on heating and feel like I can get out and about in just my light cardigan and jogging bottoms rather than dressed up like Captain Scott of the Antartic. Incessant gales and squally rain are of absolutely no interest to me.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Jacee
27 December 2022 10:36:38
Signs that the jet may lift northwards after new year which would by then bring some relief as high pressure builds a little to the east of the UK.
I am not yet confident of any Scandinavian high as there seems to be enough energy going over the top to gradually sink any meaningful attempt.

UserPostedImage
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
ballamar
27 December 2022 12:23:09
P3 has the solution nailed on thankfully 
dagspot
27 December 2022 12:32:29

P3 has the solution nailed on thankfully 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Is anything ever ‘nailed on’ 🤔
Neilston 600ft ASL
Heavy Weather 2013
27 December 2022 13:26:02
Hello. Goodbye. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
+1
Gandalf The White
27 December 2022 13:34:49

Hello. Goodbye. 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



You almost owe Paul McCartney a royalty payment.

😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Jiries
27 December 2022 13:55:07

Still looking rough and wet for the next few days but thankfully the earlier outputs showing 70 to 80 mph gusts for my location appears to have been toned down somewhat and the trend to more in the way of settled conditions by this time next week seems to be back on course. 

If I can't have any decent snowy weather, the next best thing is a good run of benign mild & bright conditions that saves on heating and feel like I can get out and about in just my light cardigan and jogging bottoms rather than dressed up like Captain Scott of the Antartic. Incessant gales and squally rain are of absolutely no interest to me.

Originally Posted by: idj20 



We not alone now as Toronto going to endure British mild type wet and windy for days and mid digit positve day and night temps.   So all the hype of snow and severe cold in N America is complete waste of time and no point to enjoy knowing that it going to wipe out instantly.  No signs of anything cold and snowy on the charts at the moment.
MBrothers
27 December 2022 14:00:55

We not alone now as Toronto going to endure British mild type wet and windy for days and mid digit positve day and night temps.   So all the hype of snow and severe cold in N America is complete waste of time and no point to enjoy knowing that it going to wipe out instantly.  No signs of anything cold and snowy on the charts at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

are you now disappointed with the cold spell in th us?
Quantum
27 December 2022 14:08:32
A weak signal for a scandi high setup by the first week of Jan with 10-20% of ensembles going for it. Some notably cold scenarios. I guess this is how true cold can come out of nowhere.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Jiries
27 December 2022 14:09:11

are you now disappointed with the cold spell in th us?

Originally Posted by: MBrothers 



No I find it waste of time of what the point of having a deep arctic cold shot shown on the models only to be replaced quickly with mild weather there insted of returning to average cold winter temps which still subzero from now to late Feb for Toronto stats.  
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