theweatheroutlook

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Taylor1740
04 January 2023 23:07:55
Starting to look like this could be one of warmest Januarys on record. 7c+ CET could be possible I reckon.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
picturesareme
05 January 2023 03:47:20

The interesting thing at the moment is how mild it has become at least in the southern half of the UK. I recorded 12.8C today with very unexceptional looking synoptics. The mildness has stealthily been encroaching since Christmas. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Mild maybe but it's a far cry from exceptional - even for January!
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 January 2023 07:22:40
WX temp charts still uncertain for week 2. Week 1 as yesterday with a mass of v cold air in E Russia and a fairly steep temp gradient to  a mild W Europe. Week 2 the temp of the mass of cold air declines, but does push colder air SW-wards to the Alps and Balkans, i.e. more to SW rather than the S shown yesterday. Britain stays mild and wet, most of the rain in week 1 but that drifts away towards Iceland in week 2. Also wet in E Med.

GFS Op - until about Tue 17th, a westerly influence for Britain with passing LPs increasing the windiness and to some extent pulling cold air down from the N before the next LP arrives (LPs Fri 6th 975mb, Sun 8th 950mb, Thu 12th 980mb all Outer Hebrides, Mon 16th 980mb Iceland) . Then a sustained ridge of HP from the SW reaching to the N Sea while LP settles over the Baltic

ECM - like GFS with minor differences in timing and position of pressure systems.

GEFS - mean temps soon down to norm and staying there with quite good agreement between ens members through to 21st. (brief mild burst around Thu 12th). Rain in most places from time to time throughout, heavy in the NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
moomin75
05 January 2023 07:42:13

GFS op shows a nice settled outlook with fog becoming a problem no doubt

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Yep, I'm afraid I think we can safely write off January now - even though it's only 5th.
I refuse to write off the whole winter this early, but the synoptics are very stuck now, and I wouldn't rule out a colder March and April again and the remainder of the winter being largely mild (again).
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Brian Gaze
05 January 2023 07:55:39
GEFS 00z 10hPa zonal winds continue to show no sign of an SSW. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
BJBlake
05 January 2023 08:29:49
The only good news for coldies - from the GFS Op this morning is: (deep into FI of course - so all just for fun):
A split polar Viortex  possible first sign of the SSW influencing the troposphere,
and a warm USA meaning no obvious accelerator fora strong jet off the Atlantic.

What seems alarming to me, since the pre-Christmas anomaly, is the reach of the cold air into continents has been as abnormally lacking - as the heat was so abundant in the same regions last summer. Is this a portrait of the new modern winter? 

N hemisphere anomaly charts would be of interest to compare this January with the average.
 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Brian Gaze
05 January 2023 09:35:01

The only good news for coldies - from the GFS Op this morning is: (deep into FI of course - so all just for fun):
A split polar Viortex  possible first sign of the SSW influencing the troposphere,
and a warm USA meaning no obvious accelerator fora strong jet off the Atlantic.

 

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



I've not looked at the GFS op run this morning but the zonal wind plot I posted above suggests it is not showing an SSW.  I will happily stand corrected.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
05 January 2023 09:49:10
It's about to disappear but the 00Z GFS actually shows snow across a swathe of the Midlands from Sunday's storm due to a runner low bringing in some cold air.

UserPostedImage
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
05 January 2023 09:54:04

Yep, I'm afraid I think we can safely write off January now - even though it's only 5th.
I refuse to write off the whole winter this early, but the synoptics are very stuck now, and I wouldn't rule out a colder March and April again and the remainder of the winter being largely mild (again).

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



why do you do it to yourself? Writing off Jan when it had 26 days left
Jiries
05 January 2023 10:05:13

It's about to disappear but the 00Z GFS actually shows snow across a swathe of the Midlands from Sunday's storm due to a runner low bringing in some cold air.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Similar to Arwen gave us snow in November which topped at 8cm.  Shame about 2022 being virtually snowless year.
ballamar
05 January 2023 10:44:39
Could it build a decent Scandi high and get the low to undercut? Think I know the answer but interesting evolution on GFS op run
Taylor1740
05 January 2023 11:35:55

Yep, I'm afraid I think we can safely write off January now - even though it's only 5th.
I refuse to write off the whole winter this early, but the synoptics are very stuck now, and I wouldn't rule out a colder March and April again and the remainder of the winter being largely mild (again).

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


yep I think January is a write off now for sure. I'm thinking early Feb may provide a more settled slightly colder spell with some frosts but nothing exceptional. And I expect this will be yet another snowless Winter here.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Tim A
05 January 2023 11:49:38
I wouldn't be writing January off. 
Maybe for a long hyped and well predicted cold spell.  But we have already had that, and it was snowless here. 

Much more memorable would be a good snow event followed by a ridge of high pressure resulting in 24 hours of freeze/snow enjoyment.  That would be great.  That cannot be ruled out. 

E.g this GFS chart shows the potential:
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_204_1.png 

This was a classic here in 2021:
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2021/cfsr/CFSR_1_2021010818_1.png 


Be foolish to rule out somewhere getting a decent snowfall. 




UserPostedImage
 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
+2
tallyho_83
05 January 2023 11:59:46
I understand NO SSW but the warming of the stratosphere could be enough to weaken the PV and thus promote some HLB?

UserPostedImage
All in FI but something to watch and also the MJO which will be in a more favourable phase?UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
05 January 2023 12:40:48
Why do we always get this “x is a write-off” nonsense? Several recent op runs have shown the futility of trying to make a forecast more than a few days in advance yet still people can make guesses in reality pseudo-analysis about the weather nearly 4 weeks in advance. We can say what the weather is currently with very high confidence, what is very likely in the coming days with reasonable confidence and what may be probable in the next ten days or so.

Beyond then any claims of wintry blasts, snowmageddon, blow torches, weeks of zonality etc. are guesswork and should be called such. As this is the model output thread and the only models that go that goes out to the end of Jan are the CFS (no comment) and the ensembles (check out the uncertainties at that time scale) I think it’s safe to ignore such guesses if you are interested in what the models actually show.

What they actually show is a train of unsettled conditions (notably mild initially especially in the south) with weather from a westerly quarter, the potential for lots of rain (notably) in western parts and potentially damaging winds but massive uncertainty in the specific details. What they do not show is that it is safe to write of January whatever that means. And no Sean there is no SSW likely in the immediate future as far as I can see and any PV displacement lies in the realms of FI and guesswork too.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+8
nsrobins
05 January 2023 14:30:52

Why do we always get this “x is a write-off” nonsense? Several recent op runs have shown the futility of trying to make a forecast more than a few days in advance yet still people can make guesses in reality pseudo-analysis about the weather nearly 4 weeks in advance. We can say what the weather is currently with very high confidence, what is very likely in the coming days with reasonable confidence and what may be probable in the next ten days or so.

Beyond then any claims of wintry blasts, snowmageddon, blow torches, weeks of zonality etc. are guesswork and should be called such. As this is the model output thread and the only models that go that goes out to the end of Jan are the CFS (no comment) and the ensembles (check out the uncertainties at that time scale) I think it’s safe to ignore such guesses if you are interested in what the models actually show.

What they actually show is a train of unsettled conditions (notably mild initially especially in the south) with weather from a westerly quarter, the potential for lots of rain (notably) in western parts and potentially damaging winds but massive uncertainty in the specific details. What they do not show is that it is safe to write of January whatever that means. And no Sean there is no SSW likely in the immediate future as far as I can see and any PV displacement lies in the realms of FI and guesswork too.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Happy New Year 😉
All quite correct though.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gusty
05 January 2023 15:07:36

Why do we always get this “x is a write-off” nonsense? Several recent op runs have shown the futility of trying to make a forecast more than a few days in advance yet still people can make guesses in reality pseudo-analysis about the weather nearly 4 weeks in advance. We can say what the weather is currently with very high confidence, what is very likely in the coming days with reasonable confidence and what may be probable in the next ten days or so.

Beyond then any claims of wintry blasts, snowmageddon, blow torches, weeks of zonality etc. are guesswork and should be called such. As this is the model output thread and the only models that go that goes out to the end of Jan are the CFS (no comment) and the ensembles (check out the uncertainties at that time scale) I think it’s safe to ignore such guesses if you are interested in what the models actually show.

What they actually show is a train of unsettled conditions (notably mild initially especially in the south) with weather from a westerly quarter, the potential for lots of rain (notably) in western parts and potentially damaging winds but massive uncertainty in the specific details. What they do not show is that it is safe to write of January whatever that means. And no Sean there is no SSW likely in the immediate future as far as I can see and any PV displacement lies in the realms of FI and guesswork too.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



It's all for show, its all for attention. Mooms as much as we love him has a personality trait that means he simply cannot help himself. This is the same Mooms that time and time again will post a CET prediction at the top or bottom of the pile. In other words 'look at me'. Mooms may be writing off the entire month of January but remember this is the same Mooms that predicted  CET of just 2.2c at a time in late December when it looked mild for the first half of the January..... Just saying. 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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+4
Brian Gaze
05 January 2023 16:07:20
I've added a  stratosphere zonal wind and temperature forecast page here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/atmosphere/stratosphere 

The charts use data from the GFS and GEFS models. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Rob K
05 January 2023 16:23:36
GFS 12Z again showing a transient snow event from one of these more southerly tracking lows from the Atlantic, this time Friday 13th in the south.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Spring Sun Winter Dread
05 January 2023 16:33:04
The mood I am seeing on here is reminding me of Jan 2011.
We'd just had the coldest December in over 100 years then the rest of the winter was average to mild and very unexciting. And weather watchers everywhere whinged and whinged.
But this is quite ordinary.
In the nearly 4 decades I've been here most winters IMBY (SE England) have been for the most part mild and grey with very little in the way of snow . To the extent that I remember any exceptions like 1995-96 and 2009-10 vividly. 
Cold isn't the norm. Mild is. Being a weather nut I can also remember painfully mild abberations like late Jan to early Feb 2002 and Dec 2015. But most people will recall only the former and forget the latter and thus have unrealistic expectations of snowmageddon each time.
Last month we had cold and snow , I watched my gas meter soar during an energy bills crisis and my neighbours pipes burst leading to calamitous scenes..
Maybe it's just age but tbh I can see the pluses of a boring mild winter nowadays. Certainly one of the more innocuous impacts of AGW if you ask me ! 
 
ballamar
05 January 2023 16:39:18
wonder if GFS op is setting up for a decent northerly plunge 
warrenb
05 January 2023 16:46:51

wonder if GFS op is setting up for a decent northerly plunge 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Looks like a lovely southerly waft to me.
Tonbridge 45m 
ballamar
05 January 2023 17:21:45

Looks like a lovely southerly waft to me.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



indeed but does get there in the end, looked for a moment the high was going to go differently! 
Saint Snow
05 January 2023 17:54:00


Maybe it's just age but tbh I can see the pluses of a boring mild winter nowadays. Certainly one of the more innocuous impacts of AGW if you ask me ! 
 

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 




If 'mild' didn't almost always equal 'and wet', I'd see your point.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Heavy Weather 2013
05 January 2023 22:27:36
Hello. I’ve even something to peak my interest tonight.

May return tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/thesnowdreamer/status/1611093677278912533?s=46&t=8VlLquQhYwl8TEmoQRnvEg 
 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
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