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Brian Gaze
02 January 2023 22:01:48



Also to Brian I agree with the tweet you link to (I assume it was yourself who posted it) 😊 I mentioned earlier that I couldn't see anything significant with regards to SSWs, though I note their potential for wintry pattern changes. I guess that's where the interest comes from for people! I definitely intend to read up more on them though.

Originally Posted by: Jacee 



👍 Yes it was me.

PS: I've added 10hPa GFS wind speed and direction charts here: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=18&charthour=42&chartname=arctic10wind&chartregion=nh&charttag=Strat%2010hPa%20wind 

I'll try and add GEFS ones tomorrow.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
02 January 2023 23:11:01
That GFS op run certainly looks about as desperate as possible looking for another decent cold spell! All about lowering heights to the south until that happens…..
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
03 January 2023 08:19:17
Looking mild / very mild next 10 days. After that who knows but significant cold looks unlikely. I went for 5.3c for my January cet guess, atm that looks to low.



UserPostedImage
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 January 2023 08:19:33
Wx temp charts show a large area of very cold air Russia in week 1 with a steep temp gradient to W Europe which remains well above seasonal norm. But as so often in the last few weeks, it fades, leaving the 0C isotherm in place E of Poland and W Europe mild, even warm around the Balkans. Pptn in week 1 for Atlantic coasts from France to S Norway plus some in the Baltic; in week 2 shifting N-wards but not clearing Scotland.

For Britain, MetO pptn for this week concentrated with the LP centre near Scotland and trailing fronts persisting over S England.

GFS Op provides W-lies for all this week; one of the Atlantic LPs deepens Sun 8th 955mb Rockall with small intense secondary near Cornwall (see Zubzero's post above); this moves away but is replaced by another 980mb N Scotland Thu 12th. Although pressure rises to the S, the W-lies keep going throughout. The extreme Urals HP at 1060mb fades away from Sun 15th but unlike yesterday's chart does not extend a ridge to Scandinavia so any hint of an E-ly has gone.

ECM similar to GFS but the second LP is tracked across England 990mb Wed 11th

GEFS temps up and down but trend is for above norm at first, cooler later but plenty of variation developing, rain from time to time in most places, heaviest in west.



 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
ballamar
03 January 2023 09:25:05
If GFS is correct for Sunday morning then I would imagine warnings aplenty for wind. Certainly looking lively
Brian Gaze
03 January 2023 09:29:58
UK Met doesn't look bad for Sunday morning  so I think we need to wait a while yet.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
03 January 2023 09:32:17
MOGREPS-G also less interested than GFS. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we get hit by a nasty storm sooner or later. If we keep rolling the dice the ingredients will eventually mix correctly. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
03 January 2023 09:42:37
Morning all, my first post of 2023. The GFS op run looks uninspiring but the GEFS does show a steady decline in temperature out to the middle of the month and corresponding increase in snow rows. Still not much sign of a big freeze any time soon though. 

(PS I seem to be unable to log in on my laptop as the signin form doesn’t allow spaces in usernames!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
03 January 2023 09:45:59

Morning all, my first post of 2023. The GFS op run looks uninspiring but the GEFS does show a steady decline in temperature out to the middle of the month and corresponding increase in snow rows. Still not much sign of a big freeze any time soon though. 

(PS I seem to be unable to log in on my laptop as the signin form doesn’t allow spaces in usernames!)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I've got a space in my username.  Are you using Safari?
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
03 January 2023 09:56:53

I've got a space in my username.  Are you using Safari?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Responded in the Forum Arms, I am using Edge.

Just to keep this post on topic, there are some tentative signs in the GEFS of pressure wanting to rise over Scandinavia by mid month but all options are definitely on the table still!

UserPostedImage 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
03 January 2023 10:04:19

UK Met doesn't look bad for Sunday morning  so I think we need to wait a while yet.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The possibility of one or two severe end storms was there a week ago on long term modelling - with a large primary trough and strong westerly flow, favourable phasing with the jet could generate a pokey runner. One to watch.
In the meantime not a lot has changed to enthuse the coldies going into the heart of January. I keep reading elsewhere about SSWs but the data suggests that this is not being projected (at least a technical SSW, not just a robust warming at 10hPa which some people think is an SWW).
You can tell the clock is ticking on winter when the SWW card is played :)
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
fairweather
03 January 2023 10:09:44
One thing I always have to bear in mind when glancing at the London 850 hPa ensembles at this time of year is that the long term mean drops to almost -3C so you don't have to be far below the line for it to be quite cold. Having said that not looking good for cold until after January 10th if at all.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
03 January 2023 10:38:34
The problem as so often seems to be heights over Europe. Even when pressure tries to build to the north we can't get anything interesting to the UK while our old friend the "Bern high pressure" is in residence. A look at the ensemble shows an annoying cluster around the 1030mb mark although there are also quite a few with pressure dropping by mid month.
UserPostedImage
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
UncleAlbert
03 January 2023 11:02:03

One thing I always have to bear in mind when glancing at the London 850 hPa ensembles at this time of year is that the long term mean drops to almost -3C so you don't have to be far below the line for it to be quite cold. Having said that not looking good for cold until after January 10th if at all.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



But of course with the mobility that is so typical of January, (especially in the modern winter), there is little time for any pooling of any cold that does feed through.
Saint Snow
03 January 2023 11:08:13
Comparing the latter stages of today's 6z with yesterday's it's decent progression - the nascent Scandy High in yesterday's run gets toppled by an Icelandic low riding over the top of it, whilst today's 6z removes the low, allowing the SH to poke at ridging westwards into slack pressure. The key to what happens next lies with a big low sitting off Newfoundland by the 16th. Would love this to send energy on a southerly trajectory.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Downpour
03 January 2023 11:17:01
Happy New Year everyone.

When Kieren before Christmas forecast 3-4 weeks of zonality, well… he was right wasn’t he?

Pretty awful fare on offer for most parts since the big freeze ended. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Saint Snow
03 January 2023 11:18:28

Comparing the latter stages of today's 6z with yesterday's it's decent progression - the nascent Scandy High in yesterday's run gets toppled by an Icelandic low riding over the top of it, whilst today's 6z removes the low, allowing the SH to poke at ridging westwards into slack pressure. The key to what happens next lies with a big low sitting off Newfoundland by the 16th. Would love this to send energy on a southerly trajectory.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Not this time 😥

But it's all FI guff at the moment. I think all we can say at this stage is that GFS is, on some runs, playing with the idea of building heights in the Scanidanvia region as we reach the FI period, but it's showing different evolutions from there, none of which it's modelling as either particularly stable or good for the UK.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
03 January 2023 11:58:13
The GFS 6Z op run does at least drop pressure over Europe later in the run which is encouraging.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
03 January 2023 13:19:14
It's good for the heating bills, right? 😀
A good chance now that the majority of the UK will not see significant colder weather until the latter end of January at least. I will be glad to be wrong as the thought of another winter without seeing falling snow here is a bit dissapointing (I refer readers to my first sentence - always a silver lining).
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
03 January 2023 13:40:49
It’s rare to see such an uninteresting set of ensemble data (especially in the FI section) as this  

UserPostedImage
 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Jiries
03 January 2023 14:10:00

The GFS 6Z op run does at least drop pressure over Europe later in the run which is encouraging.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I wondered how the European and Ski Businesses are feeling now with the nasty HP on top of them for weeks, no snow or rain to refill their water levels?  They must be all desperate to see this HP buzz off.  
UncleAlbert
03 January 2023 15:24:43

The GFS 6Z op run does at least drop pressure over Europe later in the run which is encouraging.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



For what it's worth, there is a tendency for this over around half of the ensembly suite but the end, so at least one to keep an eye on for further down the line.
Rob K
03 January 2023 15:58:03

I wondered how the European and Ski Businesses are feeling now with the nasty HP on top of them for weeks, no snow or rain to refill their water levels?  They must be all desperate to see this HP buzz off.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


No snow to speak of in many resorts (I believe Brian shared an article on this via Twitter earlier today). One of my acquaintances who lives in the French Alps has put the skis away and been using the lifts to go mountain biking - that's how green it is.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
chelsea4cup
03 January 2023 16:42:42
We are off to Samoens in France later in January and hope that things change. Looking at the models there does seem to be a pattern change in the Alps on 9th Jan with slightly cooler air and fronts arriving from the Atlantic. Here's hoping!
Phil, York
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