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Jacee
24 December 2022 16:09:37

Hasn’t everything of late programmed further south in recent times? 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



I understand that to only be the case for slider lows when they come up against a cold block over the UK, rather than our more typical zonal low.
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
tallyho_83
24 December 2022 17:39:09

From Met Office blog
"Can we predict these events in advance?
Currently we can reliably predict individual SSWs about a week in advance, and we can detect them early on with satellite and other observations. This means we have some time to see how they develop and may impact our future weather."

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



GFS 12Z model at 10hpa - Again shows the SSW toward the end of the run over Siberia and pushing into Arctic - the theme for a SSW looks set to continue:
Again still early days but the consistent theme is there and given the strength of the Siberian high this winter so far this isn't surprising!

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Jiries
24 December 2022 18:06:54

GFS 12Z model at 10hpa - Again shows the SSW toward the end of the run over Siberia and pushing into Arctic - the theme for a SSW looks set to continue:
Again still early days but the consistent theme is there and given the strength of the Siberian high this winter so far this isn't surprising!

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

If N America stay mild in January then that will help us on our side to get something snowy and cold in Jan and to be right in mid-winter than having cold early Spring.  Need a early one this year due to high heating costs and their nasty demand to increase the prices in April despite falling gas and fuel prices since last summer.
Joe Bloggs
24 December 2022 19:02:02
Merry Christmas to everyone on TWO. Both members and non-member lurkers alike. 👍

It’s a shame that the cold/mild battleground & central Britain snow risk never materialised for Christmas a la GFS, and well done to the ECMWF model, is the take home from this IMO.

Forget the weather - have a wonderful Christmas and enjoy the day tomorrow. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

dagspot
24 December 2022 20:47:06
patiently waiting for ‘not enough data’ bingo ! 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
24 December 2022 20:58:47
Merry Christmas fellow TWOers.  Here's to a snowy January. 🎅🎅🎅
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
westv
24 December 2022 21:15:50

Merry Christmas fellow TWOers.  Here's to a snowy January. 🎅🎅🎅

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Which year though?
At least it will be mild!
Zubzero
24 December 2022 22:15:18
Merry Christmas and New-year all. Here's to epic snow storms, flooding of Moomin proportions, and Jiries posts making sense. 🎅 🎆 🎇 
Lionel Hutz
24 December 2022 22:24:24

Which year though?

Originally Posted by: westv 


And where? He may mean Greenland🇬🇱. 

Happy Christmas to all. 
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Gandalf The White
24 December 2022 22:33:04

patiently waiting for ‘not enough data’ bingo ! 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



I thought it was more akin to Snakes & Ladders: you go up to a Scandi block and back down to a Euro slug.

Merry Christmas everyone.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


BJBlake
24 December 2022 23:23:07

I thought it was more akin to Snakes & Ladders: you go up to a Scandi block and back down to a Euro slug.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Merry Christmas to you too and all on TWO too.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
tallyho_83
25 December 2022 01:21:44

I thought it was more akin to Snakes & Ladders: you go up to a Scandi block and back down to a Euro slug.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Merry Christmas all - Here's to this SSW which make take place in January for a colder end to January 2023? - clutching at straws I know!

UserPostedImage
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


UncleAlbert
25 December 2022 01:30:49
Wishing a Merry Christmas and a Happy New year to all posters on TWO.
Uncle Albert
During 1963..........zzzzz
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 December 2022 06:00:54
Wishing you all a Merry Christmas!  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 December 2022 06:58:06

Which year though?

Originally Posted by: westv 



Well every January of course!😄
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 December 2022 07:00:11

And where? He may mean Greenland🇬🇱. 

Happy Christmas to all. 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 



Greenland has enough.  UK and Ireland need their fair share. ☃️🌨🎅🥶
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
25 December 2022 07:12:50
A big Bah humbug from the GEFS this morning. 

UserPostedImage


 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 December 2022 07:22:23
No Christmas present for weather watcher today! WX temps show the whole of Europe (bar a tiny bit of Norway) well above average for the time of year, and in absolute terms, the cold (<0C) area has withdrawn since yesterday and now consists only of Russia and N Scandinavia. Better news on rain; this continues to affect Atlantic coasts generally in week 1 but is limited to N Scotland and W Norway in week 2.

GFS op: basically zonal for the rest of December, with LPs somewhere N of Scotland and windy from a W/SW point; broad area of HP then begns to rise over the continent, moving to England 1035 mb Fri 7th, where it sticks and the weather calms down. No sign of yesterday's Scandi HP, justifying Rob K's scepticism.

ECM : like GFS but some of the LPs in week 1 are closer and deeper e.g. 965mb Thu 29th and hanging over into Jan 980 mb 2nd both near Hebrides. The HP is in place by Wed 4th and does include a ridge to Norway.

GEFS : temps rising irregularly to norm about the start of January, with most of any rain in that time; drier from then on (the W esp Scotland continues wet for a few days longer) and milder , op and control notably so.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
25 December 2022 10:07:02

A big Bah humbug from the GEFS this morning. 

UserPostedImage


 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Never mind that, we still have the potential of an horrific storm or perhaps even stingjet for Friday. Seems cross model support this far out is very worrying. Looks like southern england is in the target zone. Last thing I need is to find a builder to fix the roof at this time of year
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
25 December 2022 10:09:37
Thank the Lord the 06z doesnt develop the storm but could be another on Saturday
Lets hope this is a new trend or perhaps its just missing data at this time of year

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022122506/gfs-0-138.png?6 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
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