theweatheroutlook

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idj20
03 January 2023 17:04:29
That's a little bit more like it with the GFS12z, not quite so stormy-like over the weekend (stilll windy and wet but not too outrageous) and things settling down thereafter with high pressure buidling over the UK which I hope end up being a trend. Yes, it's still not exactly winter wonderland stuff with watered down cold at the 850 hpa level, but anything to put the Angry Atlantic at arms length for as long as it possibly can will do me just fine.
  I'll bet the ECM will go the other way in their next run with with ideas of raging zonality as far as the eye can see.  
Folkestone Harbour. 
dagspot
03 January 2023 17:07:37
still some snow in Cairngorms -support local
http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/glencoe/ 
Neilston 600ft ASL
ballamar
03 January 2023 18:23:55
GFS looking a lot more settled with some chance of colder weather as often comes with HP at this time of year. Hopefully a theme as opposed to a one off. Might get some hints at far reaches of ECM if there is a chance
Brian Gaze
03 January 2023 19:06:28
I've put up a GEFS based 10hPa zonal wind plot and will have it linked to the chart viewer shortly. It's visible in the tweet below.  I'm not really sure what some people are seeing in terms of an SSW.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Jacee
03 January 2023 19:08:14
A word of caution on the GFS with the operational and, to a lesser extent the control, being pressure outliers on the ensemble suite this evening. I suppose it is at least of some encouragement that the operational goes this way rather than a couple of lone ensemble members. We'll certainly hope for it to verify after the next week that's for sure 😊

UserPostedImage

Referring to the potential stormy weekend low and I think we need more runs before we nail down the depth and track. Automated forecasts aren't making much of it for inland locations during the weekend, while the latest GFS goes for widespread 40-60mph gusts through the 00z Sat to Mon period which while wild is considerably less than previous operationals. FAX charts have a 964mb low to the west of the UK Saturday noon which looks prety nasty so let's hope the worst of the winds stay clear 🤞
UserPostedImage
Do we think it has the potential to be a named storm still? Antoni?



 
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
+1
Jacee
03 January 2023 19:13:11
ECM 12z has potential for that ridge to build in from t192, but the Atlantic low is closer and better aligned to flattern any ridging and the high stays south for day 9 and day 10, though lows are tracking more towards Iceland again with polar maritime air attempting to dig back south and east.

UserPostedImage

Comparison with the GFS 12z at the same timeframe which then goes on to build the high northwards to settle over the UK. I know which outcome I would prefer!

UserPostedImage
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
+2
Taylor1740
03 January 2023 20:48:15
Extremely tight clustering on the GEFS right out to the 19th showing that there is very high confidence in a zonal pattern continuing for most of the remainder of January.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
doctormog
03 January 2023 20:59:07

Extremely tight clustering on the GEFS right out to the 19th showing that there is very high confidence in a zonal pattern continuing for most of the remainder of January.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Actually, as would be expected the deviation and uncertainty increases as the time period increases. For example


Unsettled yes, tight clustering, not really and definitely not to the 19th of January. Little sign of anything significantly wintry though.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
idj20
03 January 2023 22:15:18
The GFS keep bringing back that idea of an active daughter runner low over the South East bringing stormy winds to my neck of the woods in the latter part of the weekend, but still a chance of downgrades or even missing us since other models seems to be still showing a toned down version.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Taylor1740
03 January 2023 22:51:39

Actually, as would be expected the deviation and uncertainty increases as the time period increases. For example



Unsettled yes, tight clustering, not really and definitely not to the 19th of January. Little sign of anything significantly wintry though.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


yes but considering the range I would say the confidence of the pattern remaining zonal and fairly mild is very high. There are very few cold ensembles.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
idj20
03 January 2023 22:54:03
In fact the entire GFS 18z run can go in the bin as there is too much sloppy cold rain in this one, I preferred the 12z run. 🤣 Although there are some drier and settled bits in this latest run.
Folkestone Harbour. 
doctormog
03 January 2023 23:03:03

yes but considering the range I would say the confidence of the pattern remaining zonal and fairly mild is very high. There are very few cold ensembles.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



One glance at the FI section of the 18z GFS run shows there are other options and my previous post provides evidence to the contrary of tight clustering if you look at the links.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
tallyho_83
04 January 2023 00:25:04
18z - Notice how the Uppers still remain well below average for Verkhoyansk - Central Siberia:

Pressure never really drops below 1020mb's and rises back up to 1030mb - which strengthens the Siberian high and enhance the chances of a SSW so this high over there could retrogress towards our shores?? - Ends up knocking on the doorstep of eastern Europe on the Control run and over Scandinavia in the Operational run towards FI reaches!? A sign of things to come as we head toward the final week of this month perhaps? Signs are there surely?? If not a SSW then a warming of the Stratosphere will weaken and displace the PV and give this Siberian High pressure more of a chance to develop closer to our shores maybe? Who knows!? 


UserPostedImage

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=112519&var=201&run=18&date=2023-01-03&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

What is also interesting is how the temperature at 850hpa is actually warmer than on the surface despite 850s being well below average.
BACK closer to HOME.
18Z - The 850's ENS for London show a lot of scatter and the operational is a cold outlier or coldest option or maybe this could be a trend setter?  
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=201&run=18&date=2023-01-03&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 


UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Lionel Hutz
04 January 2023 01:00:58

yes but considering the range I would say the confidence of the pattern remaining zonal and fairly mild is very high. There are very few cold ensembles.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



For much of the British Isles, there's a fair chance of some colder interludes at times. Nothing too long lasting but Meteireann, for example, is predicting sleet and snow showers for the West and North in Ireland. 

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast 

The GFS ensembles admittedly don't suggest any prolonged cold but it's hardly mild either, at least if you work off the average;

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx 
 
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



BJBlake
04 January 2023 08:12:44
The GFS op 06z is back on for raging zonal flow. The control is cooler, with more polar maritime influence, with any Scandi high cut off by the ‘Troll of Trondheim.’  Not sure if the last run was picking up on the SSW event - if indeed it is one, the right type and sufficient to cause reversal, can anyone confirm? The lag on the effect is also several weeks, so perhaps would not show now within model range. Again could anyone confirm?
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 January 2023 08:59:52
WX temp charts still holding a large area of very cold air around the Urals, but spilling rather more S-wards to the Black Sea and Turkey than W-wards. In week 2 W Europe cools a bit (it could scarcely do anything else) but still above norm. Rain/pptn still concentrated on Atlantic coastal countries, with Britain extremely wet in week 2 (though this is an unstable forecast, yesterday Britain was all but dry).

GFS Op (00z, I think BJB's post above should read 00z too) a generally zonal flow with W/SW winds flowing through into Russia N of a semi-permanent block ca 1050mb S Urals. For Britain the Atlantic influence is intensified as some of the LPs in the SW-NE trajectory intensify and pass across Britain itself: deepest are early Sun 8th 955mb off N Ireland, Sat 14th 960mb Irish Sea (small and vicious but blink and you've missed it), Thu 19th 945mb Shetland.

ECM is GFS with variations: an extra LP Fri 6th 975mb Hebrides, Sun 8th the same, the LP Sat 14th arrives a day earlier and is 985mb Cornwall

GEFS : current mildness disappears around Sat 7th and thereafter mean temp is close to norm for the foreseeable and with fair agreement but enough variation in ens members to be worth watching; rain in most places from time to time, heavy in W but not much in E
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
nsrobins
04 January 2023 12:22:49
Even CFS super extended offers little hope of prolonged high pressure. I fear the headlines will be about flooding and wind well into the month.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Retron
04 January 2023 15:37:12

The GFS op 06z is back on for raging zonal flow. The control is cooler, with more polar maritime influence, with any Scandi high cut off by the ‘Troll of Trondheim.’  Not sure if the last run was picking up on the SSW event - if indeed it is one, the right type and sufficient to cause reversal, can anyone confirm? The lag on the effect is also several weeks, so perhaps would not show now within model range. Again could anyone confirm?

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 


No sign of a major SSW any time soon. The excellent Berlin site hasn't been updating this winter (annoyingly, as IMO it's the best one out there), but ECM does have ensemble forecasts. You're looking for a negative zonal flow at 10hPa for a major SSW:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202301020000 

No chance until the end of the month and even then it's only a small one. Typically there would be at least a 2-week lag (assuming it were to propogate down, not all do), but it's not a hard-and-fast rule... it can be anywhere from a few days to a few weeks.

And, of course, we don't need an SSW at all, as December showed. There was a strong positive zonal flow up at 10hPa, yet we still had our cold spell. Here's how the charts looked back then:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202212150000 
 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
ballamar
04 January 2023 16:04:24

Even CFS super extended offers little hope of prolonged high pressure. I fear the headlines will be about flooding and wind well into the month.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Would settle for a decent toppler with one day of wintry showers at the moment. Not much cold to look for in the models at the moment. Failing that some lively weather usually keeps up the interest and wouldn’t rule out some wind storms akin to last winter
Saint Snow
04 January 2023 16:09:01
I'd just love a prolonged period of dry and settled. Ideally chilly/cold, but not a dealbreaker.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Rob K
04 January 2023 16:21:54
After a few signs of optimism in the last couple of days the models seem to have gone back to being utterly uninspiring.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hippydave
04 January 2023 18:02:07

After a few signs of optimism in the last couple of days the models seem to have gone back to being utterly uninspiring.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I think that's a depressingly succinct description of the model output at the moment.

Obviously could all change but it's a pretty tedious outlook for the forseeable😒
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Brian Gaze
04 January 2023 18:06:26
The interesting thing at the moment is how mild it has become at least in the southern half of the UK. I recorded 12.8C today with very unexceptional looking synoptics. The mildness has stealthily been encroaching since Christmas. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
04 January 2023 19:25:37

The interesting thing at the moment is how mild it has become at least in the southern half of the UK. I recorded 12.8C today with very unexceptional looking synoptics. The mildness has stealthily been encroaching since Christmas. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



pretty much same in Summer hot days don’t need amazing synoptics anymore!

 
ballamar
04 January 2023 22:59:24
GFS op shows a nice settled outlook with fog becoming a problem no doubt

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