dagspot
27 December 2022 14:15:19
I think you need to ‘enjoy’ what have even if it doesn’t last.  Waste of time suggests noone should have had it and had zero worth.
The US cold spell has been epic in some places. 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Jacee
27 December 2022 14:17:05
Originally Posted by: Jiries 

So all the hype of snow and severe cold in N America is complete waste of time and no point to enjoy knowing that it going to wipe out instantly.  No signs of anything cold and snowy on the charts at the moment.



I'm surprised at this post given the current total of 57 deaths from the USA snowstorm (hopefully no more!). Some of the pictures are astonishing and very sobering, especially if you are a lover of cold and snow like I am.

I haven't had time to look at the charts for the US in recent days due to Christmas, but from this  article at least, there may well be more to come 😮
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
27 December 2022 14:51:31
I’m not sure that ‘enjoyment’ is uppermost on the minds of those people trapped in their cars or having their business looted. Hell might be a better term.
New York state officials said emergency personnel were going from car to car searching for survivors of the storm, and finding bodies in cars and snow banks.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64099642 
I would be looking forward to a thaw.

 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
fullybhoy
27 December 2022 15:41:32
Originally Posted by: Jiries 

We not alone now as Toronto going to endure British mild type wet and windy for days and mid digit positve day and night temps.   So all the hype of snow and severe cold in N America is complete waste of time and no point to enjoy knowing that it going to wipe out instantly.  No signs of anything cold and snowy on the charts at the moment.



You seem to get very upset about the weather…….almost as if you take it personally, you should maybe go and speak to someone, i for one think its quite alarming behaviour 
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
27 December 2022 16:21:30
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
27 December 2022 16:23:08


Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 

You seem to get very upset about the weather…….almost as if you take it personally, you should maybe go and speak to someone, i for one think its quite alarming behaviour 



How Jiries is - he takes it seriously. its a serious matter.
Quantum
27 December 2022 16:25:41
I'd still call it a weak signal but its getting stronger. Scandi high support stronger on the GEM12Z and GFS12Z compared to previous runs. Interested to see how many cold scenarios on the ensembles.

 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
27 December 2022 16:39:39
The weather isn't a matter of life and death. It's much more important than that.
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Saint Snow
27 December 2022 18:27:03
Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I'd still call it a weak signal but its getting stronger. Scandi high support stronger on the GEM12Z and GFS12Z compared to previous runs. Interested to see how many cold scenarios on the ensembles.

 



Thumbs up for posting model output assessment 😉

I'm never enamoured with the prospect of a Scandy High as it rarely delivers here, but after the last week and half of really crap weather, I'd just be glad of dry and cold now. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
27 December 2022 18:30:57
Originally Posted by: idot 

rain band on the run



😀

When It's 64 (degrees Fahrenheit) 

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
27 December 2022 19:09:59
An odd cold run has been appearing in recent ECM and GEFS updates but they are still few and far between, at least for the south.

UserPostedImage


GEFS35 possibly picking something up during the second half of January.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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ballamar
27 December 2022 22:42:09
GFS has decent development to the north but if heights remain to the south it is wasted! Hopefully could develop if it can push down and push low and split euro high. Not asking much
UncleAlbert
28 December 2022 01:13:31
Originally Posted by: ballamar 

GFS has decent development to the north but if heights remain to the south it is wasted! Hopefully could develop if it can push down and push low and split euro high. Not asking much



It appears (unfortunately on both counts) that for the time being at least  your request is the equivalent of asking for a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.  As Brian alluded to recently the next week and may be again towards the middle of January seem a little bit similar to January 2014.  I just hope that any blocking to the East does not become only close enough to be our enemy as it did then, with repeated troughs being forced down towards the south of the UK, and these areas especially, remaining fairly mild, very wet, and often very stormy.
Surrey John
28 December 2022 07:58:16
 Short term (through to New Year’s Day)
Lows and fronts all over the Met office fax charts

Zonal, wet and windy, a rubbish end to the year

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure 
 
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
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28 December 2022 08:04:16
GFS Op shows a picture of LP north of Scotland with strong SW-lies predominating across Britain and on a long way into Europe - but with a few brief interruptions: a small but intense LP 985mb N Ireland Sun 1st , another local LP 965mb W Scotland Fri 6th and then a much larger LP N Sea 960mb Sun 8th, the last of these extensive enough to bring in a 2-day N-ly. 

The WX temps are consequent on the Op pattern with a band of cool, rather than cold air extending from N Spain all the way to W Russia, even the super-cold over Siberia disappearing; and any cold staying to the N, i.e. Scandinavia, Iceland, and just a touch in N Scotland. Rain/pptn for Atlantic coastal countries continues, extending to the Baltic in week 1 and then across France down to the Adriatic in week 2. 

ECM has the same general pattern as GFS but omits the first two local LPs though it does show a much deeper LP winding up in the Atlantic 965mb Sat 7th (Sun 8th beyond end of run)

The Jet stream in the Atlantic is not especially strong but it is persistent in the area of the British Isles, beginning to oscillate somewhat after Sun 8th. I'm surprisd that the recent widespread storm in the US hasn't induced a major perturbation. EDIT Afterthought - this would tie in with reports that I heard saying that the very cold air in the States was quite shallow, less than 10,000 feet. That would allow the jet to pass over the top undisturbed.

FAX has a continual array of fronts across S England for the next week in addition to the more general LP further N. IMO floods can be expected. 

GEFS as yesterday, in the S mild at end of Dec (but this not appearing in Sotland where on the cool side of norm), then again around Fri 6th but this latter spell not lasting as long as forecast yesterday, mean temp back near norm from Tue 8th with the cold spell suggested by the Op above only in a minority of ens members. Rain more frequent and continual than shown yesterday, though Scotland gets a break around Tue 3rd.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
28 December 2022 09:41:45
Lots of blue and purple appearing to the west and northwest of the UK on the stamps.  


UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
28 December 2022 11:19:49
Looks like the reality is the Atlantic has too much oompf for a Scandi high to get a foothold. The potential is there but increasingly unlikely 
Gandalf The White
28 December 2022 11:41:02
Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Looks like the reality is the Atlantic has too much oompf for a Scandi high to get a foothold. The potential is there but increasingly unlikely 



That is pretty much what I concluded.  I think the best chance of brief colder snaps will come from getting the trough east of us, into Scandi.  Anything more than the odd day or two will have to wait for the jet stream to die down, become more amplified or shift south. No real evidence of any of those happening in the foreseeable, which gets us towards mid-month.

Any slight disappointment is very much tempered by the reality of energy prices.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Saint Snow
28 December 2022 14:01:57
Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Looks like the reality is the Atlantic has too much oompf for a Scandi high to get a foothold. The potential is there but increasingly unlikely 



It's always stubborn heights over the Med that ruins our prospects. An active jet with northern blocking, or undercutting a Scandy High, and sending systems to the south of the UK (or over southern England, to benefit those living further north 😉) is actually great. Ideally in the winter we see reports of floods in Central Europe and ex-pats on the Costas whining about rain. 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Taylor1740
28 December 2022 14:22:58
It looks like a proper zonal pattern has taken hold now. Hopefully the jet can trend further south and we can at least get some cold zonality. However I wouldn't expect the zonal pattern to break until at least the second half of January.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
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