Bit of clustering on GFS at the end around the -6 mark which not bitter would bring potential of wintry showers. Would say more seasonal but what we have in the south is now the winter normal!

The period 7th - 12th increasingly likely to be stormy with the potential for a couple of named storms. 

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What an absolute stunner of a post. Great to have you posting. Welcome. 👍😊

I agree Joe!  A post with examples and explanations that make sense to someone like me, who struggles to make sense of models and charts. 👍

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WX temp charts keep cold weather across the far N of Europe for the next two weeks, though a bit less severe, while some of this spills SW-wards into what is currently a very mild W Europe, so looking more like seasonal temps in week 2 with mountains unsurprisingly below freezing.

GFS Op - W-ly or SW-ly for the coming week, with LP more or less close to N Scotland and the driest weather around Sat 7th. From Tue 10th there is a more meridional pattern, on that day a trough moves SE into the N Sea 965mb with N-lies to follow, and then a shallower trough drifting across Britain 990mb Sat 14th linking N to Svalbard;  but as this moves E to the Baltic a deep LP mid Atlantic Mon 16th introduces S-lies originating somewhere near the Azores.

ECM - like GFS to start with though it emphasises LP Wed 4th close to W Scotland, and then brings forward the meridional pattern with LP 980 mb N Sea a couple of days earlier i.e. Sun 8th. However pressure does not rise behind this trough so winds go back W-ly rather than N-ly on Tue 10th.

GEFS - temps up and down until about Sun 8th, then the mean settling to a little below seasonal norm well supported by most ens members. Rain at some time in most ens members, driest in N & E, the only real prospects of snow are for the Highlands

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I wonder where the 06z will go? Quite different at +132

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Chart at 162 screams potential with looks like a massive col which could indicate a potential pressure build over Scandi, but charts progress in a different way at the moment

Chart at 162 screams potential with looks like a massive col which could indicate a potential pressure build over Scandi, but charts progress in a different way at the moment

Agree 100% with this. ​​​​​​​Very interesting model watching now...with a growing sign of some significant wintry weather on the horizon.​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Reckon we need to get the next week of mild gunk out of the way, and then mid-January onwards looks poised for something much more akin to winter.    

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Agree 100% with this. Very interesting model watching now...with a growing sign of some significant wintry weather on the horizon.​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Reckon we need to get the next week of mild gunk out of the way, and then mid-January onwards looks poised for something much more akin to winter.    

Not sure it's that interesting for the southern third of the UK. Floods,  floods and more floods would sum it up.

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Not sure it's that interesting for the southern third of the UK. Floods, floods and more floods would sum it up.

In the short term yes, I agree.

But its more mid-January onwards that looks interesting to say the least.​​​​​​​

On top of that, there now appears a strong signal for a proper and large SSW in about 10 days' time.​​​​​​​

We will still need a lot of luck and an SSW doesn't guarantee anything, but it stacks some of the cards in our favour at the very least.  

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In the short term yes, I agree.

But its more mid-January onwards that looks interesting to say the least.​​​​​​​

On top of that, there now appears a strong signal for a proper and large SSW in about 10 days' time.​​​​​​​

We will still need a lot of luck and an SSW doesn't guarantee anything, but it stacks some of the cards in our favour at the very least.  

Good post, Kieren. 🙂

With SSWs, it is very much a case of hoping that, assuming the event happens in the first place, the pieces then fall into place in the right way for a cold spell, and unfortunately that doesn't always happen. We had a SSW in February 2018 which led to the 'Beast from the East' and the end of Feb/start of March that year. There again, IIRC there was another SSW around the same time the following year and the end result of that could not have been more different to what we got in 2018.

Let's hope that, assuming there is a SSW later this winter, it works to our advantage in terms of cold. 🙂

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Actually, I'm afraid I don't agree. What we're seeing across Arctic Russia is what we see every winter: modest increases in temperature which ebb and flow, often moving west to east.

The subject of the behaviour of the stratosphere is way above my pay grade but I don't think there's any correlation between what we are seeing and possible SSW events.

Of course, even a notable SSW doesn't guarantee propogation down into the troposphere, let alone guaranteeing blocking in the right place.

You still don't agree - despite constant signals /signs being there in recent GFS runs for a significant warming commencing over Siberia and red colours pushing into the North Pole!?

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In the short term yes, I agree.

But its more mid-January onwards that looks interesting to say the least.

On top of that, there now appears a strong signal for a proper and large SSW in about 10 days' time.​​​​​​​

We will still need a lot of luck and an SSW doesn't guarantee anything, but it stacks some of the cards in our favour at the very least.  

Maybe a SSW will save us but the ensembles continue to look poor for the South.
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It'll be interesting to see if the cooler zonal GFS has been showing for a while in its FI section materialises or not - there's been a few Januarys lately where it has done but generally a progged cool zonal for the far south ends up average or mild zonal nearer the time.

The charts aren't without interest though - in the near term cold enough in Scotland on and off for snowfall even down to lower levels at times (I know, not exactly unusual but against recent standards it's good to see) and an FI risk of colder air making it far enough South to bring interest to more folks in an unstable west or north westerly flow. Not generally any good IMBY but can deliver to parts of Wales, the North West and some in the Midlands. 

I assume this is all helping to add a decent amount of snow to the Scottish ski resorts albeit it's presumably a tad too breezy up there a lot of the time to enjoy it!

Whilst it's FI and will look different in a few hours for general amusement the T231 to T240 charts for Kent have 40- 60 mph gusts and rain or sleet/snow, heavy at times. Would be fun if it verified (unlikely though that is).

On the SSW front I think the latest GFS is showing the first warming event followed by a fairly major warming event, no idea if it shows a reversal though to meet the SSW definition? I don't really know much about SSWs but did read a few bits the other day that general warmings can lead to SSWs later so the GFS solution isn't implausible I guess. Whether it happens and whether it impacts the weather at our level (and how) are all unknowable at this stage - given SSWs happen fairly frequently on average and we don't get fairly frequent cold spells I think that's probably enough to show they're not the holy grail for cold but more a throw of the dice. 


 

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It does look like temperatures may return down to averag by next week, at least. But frankly this current weather, as many of us feared as Christmas approached,  can best be described as "unuseable"!

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It'll be interesting to see if the cooler zonal GFS has been showing for a while in its FI section materialises or not - there's been a few Januarys lately where it has done but generally a progged cool zonal for the far south ends up average or mild zonal nearer the time.

The charts aren't without interest though - in the near term cold enough in Scotland on and off for snowfall even down to lower levels at times (I know, not exactly unusual but against recent standards it's good to see) and an FI risk of colder air making it far enough South to bring interest to more folks in an unstable west or north westerly flow. Not generally any good IMBY but can deliver to parts of Wales, the North West and some in the Midlands. 

I assume this is all helping to add a decent amount of snow to the Scottish ski resorts albeit it's presumably a tad too breezy up there a lot of the time to enjoy it!

Whilst it's FI and will look different in a few hours for general amusement the T231 to T240 charts for Kent have 40- 60 mph gusts and rain or sleet/snow, heavy at times. Would be fun if it verified (unlikely though that is).

On the SSW front I think the latest GFS is showing the first warming event followed by a fairly major warming event, no idea if it shows a reversal though to meet the SSW definition? I don't really know much about SSWs but did read a few bits the other day that general warmings can lead to SSWs later so the GFS solution isn't implausible I guess. Whether it happens and whether it impacts the weather at our level (and how) are all unknowable at this stage - given SSWs happen fairly frequently on average and we don't get fairly frequent cold spells I think that's probably enough to show they're not the holy grail for cold but more a throw of the dice. 


 

A good summary of where we appear to be heading over the next week or two.

On the stratosphere, GFS has a 10hPa wind chart as well as the temperature one, and it certainly shows an atypical wind pattern in the latter stages on the 06z.

On conditions on the Scottish mountains, I remember an expert pointing out that the conditions in the Scottish mountains are in fact Arctic, as opposed to the Alpine conditions in Switzerland and adjacent countries.

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In the short term yes, I agree.

But its more mid-January onwards that looks interesting to say the least.

On top of that, there now appears a strong signal for a proper and large SSW in about 10 days' time.​​​​​​​

We will still need a lot of luck and an SSW doesn't guarantee anything, but it stacks some of the cards in our favour at the very least.  

​​​​​​​at the moment it looks like cold zonality is favoured in the GEFS mid-January onwards. I'm not a big fan of SSWs if anything they are just as likely to cause extremely mild weather as very cold in my experience. Might be better off taking a spell of cold zonality.

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at the moment it looks like cold zonality is favoured in the GEFS mid-January onwards. I'm not a big fan of SSWs if anything they are just as likely to cause extremely mild weather as very cold in my experience. Might be better off taking a spell of cold zonality.

not being pedantic but GEFS doesn’t show beyond mid January

Small adjustment at 174 for the low to become a ‘slider’

Small adjustment at 174 for the low to become a ‘slider’

Significant SSW Temperature increase of some 60 or 70c at 1hpa?

A message for Brian or anyone who can help advise?

I see that there is also a significant increase in temperature at 1hpa which I assume is at the very top of the atmosphere especially over N Scandinavia, Svalbard and into the N Pole at the end of the run which has also been a trend and I was wondering if this can infiltrated lower down into the stratosphere at 10hpa and 30hpa and cause a SSW and build a blocking? Or are significant major SSW's at 1hpa irrelevant as it's too high up?

Thanks for thoughts in advance:

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Significant SSW Temperature increase of some 60 or 70c at 1hpa?

A message for Brian or anyone who can help advise?

I see that there is also a significant increase in temperature at 1hpa which I assume is at the very top of the atmosphere especially over N Scandinavia, Svalbard and into the N Pole at the end of the run which has also been a trend and I was wondering if this can infiltrated lower down into the stratosphere at 10hpa and 30hpa and cause a SSW and build a blocking? Or are significant major SSW's at 1hpa irrelevant as it's too high up?

Thanks for thoughts in advance:

best thing is to keep an eye on a reversal in the zonal winds