Hmmm, Christmas is between seven and eight weeks away at the moment and, even with such a long spell of above average temperatures, I think it would be a bit of a gamble for anyone to predict that there won't be any air frosts before Christmas. Especially with the continuing prediction by the MetO of a change to a more settled and possibly colder spell around the middle of this month which is also now being suggested in FI in a few GFS op runs.

The meto have been predicting a change to  more settled and colder conditions for the past month in 15-30 day forecast it ,keeps getting pushed back. 

When was the last below average month? This year is on course to be the warmest ever recorded, imby its quite commen now to be no air frosts before Christmas. 

The run off above average temperatures will come to an end at some point but my guess is December will be yet another above average month. 

 

The meto have been predicting a change to  more settled and colder conditions for the past month in 15-30 day forecast it ,keeps getting pushed back. 

When was the last below average month? This year is on course to be the warmest ever recorded, imby its quite commen now to be no air frosts before Christmas. 

The run off above average temperatures will come to an end at some point but my guess is December will be yet another above average month. 

We'll just have to wait and see, won't we? From what I've read, I don't think the change that the MetO have been predicing to colder and drier weather has been pushed back a great deal (it was never forecast to come before the second week of November IIRC), and they have been consistent for the past week or so about this happening circa mid-November which is now supported by some model output in FI.

Wrt December, if the pattern that has dominated much of this year continues until the end of the year, then there is more than a fair chance that December will be above average too. However, given what the extended MetO and the BBC extended outlooks are saying plus what some FI model output is now suggesting, I would say this is now open to question to some degree anyway.

As I say, we will have to wait and see.

WX temp forecast resiling from the expansion of cold weather this morning; week 1 shows Europe with the above-average temps more widespread than yesterday, and although there are tiny patches of cold over mountains further West, the large area of solid cold over Russia has fragmented and withdrawn somewhat, albeit projecting something cooler in the direction of the Carpathians in week 2. AS for rainfall, there are two main patches, one on the Atlantic (week 1 including Britain and Norway, but then retreating NW-wards), the other in the Adriatic (moving to Turkey week 2), and perhaps some in S Spain as well.

GFS Op consistent with yesterday; LPs moving from northern mid-Atlantic NE-wards past Scotland until Fri 11th with strong SW-lies for Britain (LP deepest 970 mb Sun 4th W of Ireland, may include remnants of hurricane Martin and 960 mb S of Iceland Tue 8th) after which HP develops from the S, first as a N-S blocking ridge with S-lies for Britain, then by Wed 16th a large general area of HP which hangs around with some tendency to move N-wards until Sun 20th. (Frost or fog? My guess is for the former as the source of air has been mostly from the SE while the HP was setting up)

ECM like GFS to Fri 11th (has an extra deep LP near Iceland on Thu 11th) but after that the HP develops further to the E, over the near Continent, with strong SW-lies; dry in the SE, probably not dry in the NW.

GEFS like yesterday; rain occasionally heavy to Fri 11th, then drier in most places (N & W Scotland & NI excepted) until Mon 14th when it re-appears in some ens members; becoming abnormally warm around Sun 13th but then breaking into chaos (e.g in the SE by Sun 20th the spread of ens members is from +8C to -8C relative to the norm 0f 2C, day-night average and similar elsewhere).

Bit more clustering on as colder outlook towards later November. Think we could see some frost and fog with a below average week or 2 at the end of Autumn

I hope you're right but I assume that there must a tendency for model projections to revert close to the mean toward the end of the outlook period? 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=London

The Op and Control are very mild out beyond 10 days. Until the cooldown gets into the less than 10 days timeframe, it's not much of a guide to the future. Besides, even beyond the reliable, we're only looking at average temperatures - it comes to something when we're looking deep into FI and hoping that we just get to average temperatures.

 

The meto have been predicting a change to  more settled and colder conditions for the past month in 15-30 day forecast it ,keeps getting pushed back.  

Hmmm, a generally unsettled GFS op run, albeit a cooler zonal after day 10 or so. 

I've not been religiously watching each run and the ens but would be a departure from what was shown a day or two back and would pretty much guarantee I'll have an above average rainfall month given the deluge yesterday which was topped up by another 11mm or so from the overnight showers.

Just seen the latest GFS ensembles and an extreme anomalous warm spell mid-month looks nailed on now, so looks like yet another well above average month.

Superb isn’t it? Imagine if we had an extremely mild winter. As in virtually warm. That, for me, would be even more exciting than the summer heatwaves and extreme temps we had. The death of winter weather in the UK would be amazing!!

(for me. Most won’t agree and I do enjoy snow when it happens. It’s the frosts and cold wet weather and dark days that make my excrement itch)

No evidence and gut feel only, but surely this must be one of the biggest anomalies of all time?

I need to recalibrate the MOGREPS-G 850hPa temperature November scale.

No evidence and gut feel only, but surely this must be one of the biggest anomalies of all time?

Look how dry as well. Normally you’d expect that to have big rainfall spikes 

No evidence and gut feel only, but surely this must be one of the biggest anomalies of all time?

There has to be 18's and 19's on offer with that setup, possible 20c with a steady dryish southerly flow and no inversion. 22.4c is the number to beat to obtain the UK November heat record.

 

 

Look how dry as well. Normally you’d expect that to have big rainfall spikes 

Better as now got more then enough rain so need a long break.  Bring on the warmth so less heating needed and energy companies and Ofgem will not be happy with this mild weather, less profits for them. 

 

There has to be 18's and 19's on offer with that setup, possible 20c with a steady dryish southerly flow and no inversion. 22.4c is the number to beat to obtain the UK November heat record.

... and that was on the 1st; the date records around the 13th are about 19C so a date record looks probable, if the month record is missed.

 

There has to be 18's and 19's on offer with that setup, possible 20c with a steady dryish southerly flow and no inversion. 22.4c is the number to beat to obtain the UK November heat record.

A blessing for us to use less heating but fuming by Ofgem and energy companies who was expecting cold weather to increase more on their profits.  

 

Better as now got more then enough rain so need a long break.  Bring on the warmth so less heating needed and energy companies and Ofgem will not be happy with this mild weather, less profits for them. 

Enough for the area round Coventry and wherever you get your water from, maybe; but the water table of the chalk areas to the SE is still far too low for assurance of water supply next summer.

 

A blessing for us to use less heating but fuming by Ofgem and energy companies who was expecting cold weather to increase more on their profits.  

Clever wording. But not as poetic as Marty and his itchy excrement. 

 

Clever wording. But not as poetic as Marty and his itchy excrement. 

That what my thinking about them are very fuming because of those never ending mild weather.  Today type of cold sunny weather in November used to be 2-6C maxes but still went over 10C that normally come with rain and clouds.   Reply to DEW post, it just we need a break from the rain at times.