WX temp summary has given up on the advance of any cold weather from Russia; week 1 shows W Europe everywhere above norm and E Europe very much above norm, while the 0C isotherm begins to look ragged. Week 2 - and this cold area has almost disappeared off the top of the map (remember that about a week ago it was advancing and menacing W Europe). Rain, week 1 as before on the Atlantic with Britain on the edge of the heaviest area, plus some in the Adriatic; week 2 brings a change from yesterday with heavy rain from the Atlantic esp NW Scotland, across to Denmark and down to Italy.

FAX shows LPs close to NI/W Scotland through to Tue, then another LP approaching on Wed, and the expected collection of troughs and fronts regularly crossing Britain 

GFS Op agrees with FAX but then a rise of pressure to the SE promises dry weather next weekend before LP near Iceland 955mb Tue 15th projects a trough S-wards before settling over the Baltic as a very large area of LP, enough to give Britain N-lies through to Mon 21st and beyond ( and a brief embedded secondary LP 980mb Hebrides Sat 19th). These N-lies probably show up too late to affect the WX averages above.

ECM similar to GFS but the LP Tue 15th is nearer Norway, and Britain looks less wet (showers?) on a brisk NW-ly

GEFS for England and E Scotland- rain to Thu 10th and temps near norm followed by a dramatic rise in temp, max 8C above norm and dry either side of Sat 12th, after which most ens runs decline to norm (Op quickly, control slowly) by Sat 19th with increasing probability of rain. Similar in NW, Scotland and NI but that peak of temp only +5C and never really dry; rain pretty well certain later on and in quantity.

Watching BBC weather yesterday saying LP to the west/norwest and HP to the right over europe together will continue pumping warm air upwards across the British Isles next week

Watching BBC weather yesterday saying LP to the west/norwest and HP to the right over europe together will continue pumping warm air upwards across the British Isles next week

More like 1988 to 1989 set up.  Ofgem and Energy companies will be gashing their teeth seeing the mild forecasts.  

 

More like 1988 to 1989 set up.  Ofgem and Energy companies will be gashing their teeth seeing the mild forecasts.  

Why would Ofgem be upset? Besides it is quite chilly here today and the jet has kicked in several times. The coming week should be (very) mild but I’m not sure about beyond then, as it looks much closer to the average for the second half of November which would feel chilly compared with much of the autumn so far. 

Personally I want it to stay as mild as possible for as long as possible but I guess there will come a time (second half of November would be my guess based on current output) where things become much more “average”.

Watching BBC weather yesterday saying LP to the west/norwest and HP to the right over europe together will continue pumping warm air upwards across the British Isles next week

Going by the 0600z GEFS, there is a pretty strong signal for the  mid month spell of well above average temps to be followed by a decline to something near (or dare I say it!), a little below normal later on.

 

Why would Ofgem be upset? 

 

They are both into this as if Ofgem really supposed to protect customers but did not want to and dish out very high prices and not following like other countries lower price increases.  

Quite a few contradictions today ...

WX summary with no surprises in week 1 - Europe above/well above norm with a patch of colder weather to the NE. But a dramatic change from yesterday in week 2, instead of the cold weather fading away there's a massive incursion of cold from Siberia down to Romania. W Europe unaffected for now, but little sign of the warmth from the south predicted for next weekend for UK in MetO, GFS Op etc. Rain continuing on the Atlantic including Britain for both weeks (again not seen in the GFS Op for week 2), plus a couple of smaller areas in the Med and the Black Sea

GFS Op - current LP off Ireland moving NE and filling but not before it has projected a few troughs across Britain. A much deeper LP (947mb - FAX) close to Iceland Thu 10th but only affecting the far NW as pressure rises from the S, by Saturday 12th 1035mb Germany and moving N bringing a warm S-ly flow until Wed 16th when it links to another HP cell in the Atlantic and winds swing round to the SW. This lasts until Sun 20th when deep LP 960mb develops in mid Atlantic with trough to the S, the whole of this then moving closer to Britain. A brief spell of NE-lies over Russia around Mon 14th but not as extensive or as persistent as implied in the WX charts.

ECM - like GFS until Sun 13th. After that there's no HP cell on the Atlantic to offer a link; instead the HP retreats E-wards,  LP moves in and is centred over E Scotland 970mb Tue 15th with disturbed weather for all of Britain.

GEFS - as yesterday, cool and wet to Thu 10th, dry and very mild, even warm, to Sun 13th, after  which rain sets in and temps decline to seasonal norm by Fri 18th. Similar temp pattern for all, but the rain never really clears from the far NW

Could be some records going next week.

Quite a few contradictions today ...

WX summary with no surprises in week 1 - Europe above/well above norm with a patch of colder weather to the NE. But a dramatic change from yesterday in week 2, instead of the cold weather fading away there's a massive incursion of cold from Siberia down to Romania. W Europe unaffected for now, but little sign of the warmth from the south predicted for next weekend for UK in MetO, GFS Op etc. Rain continuing on the Atlantic including Britain for both weeks (again not seen in the GFS Op for week 2), plus a couple of smaller areas in the Med and the Black Sea

GFS Op - current LP off Ireland moving NE and filling but not before it has projected a few troughs across Britain. A much deeper LP (947mb - FAX) close to Iceland Thu 10th but only affecting the far NW as pressure rises from the S, by Saturday 12th 1035mb Germany and moving N bringing a warm S-ly flow until Wed 16th when it links to another HP cell in the Atlantic and winds swing round to the SW. This lasts until Sun 20th when deep LP 960mb develops in mid Atlantic with trough to the S, the whole of this then moving closer to Britain. A brief spell of NE-lies over Russia around Mon 14th but not as extensive or as persistent as implied in the WX charts.

ECM - like GFS until Sun 13th. After that there's no HP cell on the Atlantic to offer a link; instead the HP retreats E-wards,  LP moves in and is centred over E Scotland 970mb Tue 15th with disturbed weather for all of Britain.

GEFS - as yesterday, cool and wet to Thu 10th, dry and very mild, even warm, to Sun 13th, after  which rain sets in and temps decline to seasonal norm by Fri 18th. Similar temp pattern for all, but the rain never really clears from the far NW

It's like living in " model doldrums", looking perhaps for signs of some exciting weather, (somewhere), like an explosive cyclogenesis or a beastly easterly hitting our shores in the coming weeks/months... 

Does anyone know where the Met Office now post their regional extreme observations for their last 24 hours, if indeed they do?

These used to come up with the Observation map, but now they have got the new whizzy version of the map this is no longer the case. I can find their national extremes, which is all very well, but I'd find it more relevant, say, to know whether SE England had a frost anywhere last night rather than that Aboyne, 450 miles north of here, recorded -4C. (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation )

Does anyone know where the Met Office now post their regional extreme observations for their last 24 hours, if indeed they do?

These used to come up with the Observation map, but now they have got the new whizzy version of the map this is no longer the case. I can find their national extremes, which is all very well, but I'd find it more relevant, say, to know whether SE England had a frost anywhere last night rather than that Aboyne, 450 miles north of here, recorded -4C. (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation )

Any good? https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/

Do you think ofgem and the weather are working together or perhaps putin is working for the weather too? 😂

Wouldn't be the first time the Russians have messed about with the weather 

 

Any good? https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thanks - I'd not seen this before and it's very useful for point observations.

But ...

I was looking for something in the format shown in https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation  so that I could see at a glance max/min for temp, rain etc for the whole region (in my case the South, which covers Kent to Hampshire and north to Oxford)

EC day ten temp anomaly has the look of winter 2013/2014 about it with huge banks of cold air spilling off the N. American continent and into a very warm N. Atlantic. 

Wondering if we could see a touch of warming in the Strat soon to aid some blocking. Keeping an eye open

Fingers crossed.

I think many areas would be glad of a period of more settled weather sometime soon, be it mild or cold.

EC day ten temp anomaly has the look of winter 2013/2014 about it with huge banks of cold air spilling off the N. American continent and into a very warm N. Atlantic. 

 

Not sure what I remember of 2013-14 but the mix of cold air and warm ocean sounds like a recipe for intense cyclogenesis. Was it like that?

 

Not sure what I remember of 2013-14 but the mix of cold air and warm ocean sounds like a recipe for intense cyclogenesis. Was it like that?

Pretty much! The storms started in the 3rd week of December of 2013 (after a prolonged anticyclonic spell) and didn't really relent until March. 

 

Not sure what I remember of 2013-14 but the mix of cold air and warm ocean sounds like a recipe for intense cyclogenesis. Was it like that?

Yes… that was the winter that Red Bull held their massive surf kite surfing competition at Gwithian in Cornwall. It was also the winter that changed the coastline and France stole our sandy beaches..according to one newspaper.