https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2022110612/JN240-7.GIF

I usually like to start my winter postings with an unfeasibly optimistic chart!

So here is tonights 12z JMA +240

Good to be back ;)

At least that agrees with this mornings WX chart, even if none of the other outputs did!

Does anyone know where the Met Office now post their regional extreme observations for their last 24 hours, if indeed they do?

These used to come up with the Observation map, but now they have got the new whizzy version of the map this is no longer the case. I can find their national extremes, which is all very well, but I'd find it more relevant, say, to know whether SE England had a frost anywhere last night rather than that Aboyne, 450 miles north of here, recorded -4C. (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation )

Official reply from the MetO - no, the regional extremes aren't being provided any more.

Thank you for your email. As stated, you can continue to find UK extremes data ...The regional daily extremes data has been retired as part of the launch of our new maps pages. However, we are planning to reinstate this information in the future if it continues to be a requirement for people, and we have noted your feedback regarding this. Apologies for any inconvenience in the meantime, and again thank you for taking the time to get in touch.

If it's important to you as well, add your feedback at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/contact 

WX temps like yesterday - Europe still well above norm throughout in week 1 but a big movement of colder Siberian air SW-wards in week 2, reaching the borders of Poland and also affecting Turkey. Residual warmth on Atlantic coasts retreating S-ward to Spain (and the much-vaunted warm spell this coming weekend doesn't show up on these charts, and it is also much reduced on the day-to-day MetO forecasts at least for the south of England). Rain on the Atlantic week 1, fringing NW Britain; new development and much more extensive in week 2, a broad and heavy band Iceland - Britain - France - Adriatic.

GFS Op - LPs passing NW Scotland to Thu 10th; then HP (as forecast) arises from the S but is centred further E (1035mb Czechia Sun 13th) so Britain has SW-lies rather than direct S-lies so mild but not as extreme as previously forecast. LP on Atlantic gradually gathers strength and settles 960mb Rockall Fri 18th, dominating Britain's weather; and a re-load 955mb Tue 22nd entraining colder air this time. The HP from Czechia gradually drifts SE-wards, by Wed 23rd 1040mb near the Caspian and exerting less and less influence on Britain.

ECM - after the passing LPs at first, as for Gfs, then keeps to the earlier forecast of HP closer at the weekend (1035mb Germany Sat 12th) with warmer source of air than GFS before an abrupt breakdown, LP 975mb N England Wed 16th and general LP over Atlantic persisting and affecting Britain after that

GEFS - keeps the very mild and dry spell for the S Thu 10th - Mon 14th but a quicker decline to norm with frequent rain for the rest of the forecast period. Similar temp profiles elsewhere, but in the N & W not so much dry as damp, and then heavier rain returning.

 

Official reply from the MetO - no, the regional extremes aren't being provided any more.

Thank you for your email. As stated, you can continue to find UK extremes data ...The regional daily extremes data has been retired as part of the launch of our new maps pages. However, we are planning to reinstate this information in the future if it continues to be a requirement for people, and we have noted your feedback regarding this. Apologies for any inconvenience in the meantime, and again thank you for taking the time to get in touch.

If it's important to you as well, add your feedback at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/contact 

Looks like another example of a disimprovement.

I'm pleased to see the MO showing a settled spell (for here) in the medium term.  Parts of the far SE have had double the monthly average for November in the first 7 days.  It never rains but it pours ...

[Emphasis added]

Looks like another example of a disimprovement.

I'm pleased to see the MO showing a settled spell (for here) in the medium term.  Parts of the far SE have had double the monthly average for November in the first 7 days.  It never rains but it pours ...

Yes after the bone dry summer it has certainly been soggy round here. For the first time I can remember the local November 5 bonfire failed to light this year!

Stormy/very wet ECM 00z after a very mild dry period has gone through.

I'm just hopefull of a dry spell

It's just been so soggy for weeks.

I'm just hopefull of a dry spell

It's just been so soggy for weeks.

 

Sounds as though your area has had the same rubbish weather lately that my neck of the woods has had, Saint.

Like yourself, I would dearly like a dry spell now, and it doesn't necessarily have to be accompanied by cold temperatures.

WX temp summary keeps the existing pattern of a mild/very mild Europe for week 1, with cold weather hovering in the far NE. In week 2, unlike yesterday, the cold in the NE expands only to a limited extent, only just as far as W Russia, though some ultra-cold does appear in the far N. Elsewhere, some modest cooling across Europe, most visible in the N incl N Scotland. Rain on Atlantic, fringing Britain in week , moving in to cover all of Britain in week 2 as well as much of France and S Scandinavia.

GFS Op; mostly a procession of LP. At first these tend to be to the N (965mb Wed 9th, Rockall; 970mb Iceland Fri 11th) but after HP appears briefly and somewhat distantly for the weekend (1035mb S Germany), the LPs take a more S-ly track (965mb Iceland Wed 16th with secondary over England the next day, 960mb Hebrides Mon 21st, and another approaching in the same latitude 950mb Thu 24th)

ECM; like GFS to the weekend when the HP is more pronounced but then collapses more quickly - LP 960mb NI Tue 15th, separately 970mb N England Thu 17th, while a general area of LP lurks N of Scotland.

GEFS; showers at first, very mild and dry Thu 10th - Mon 14th, then temp down to norm abruptly and lots of rain esp in S. 

Looks more zonal/windy/cooler but nothing particularly exciting from a wintery point of view.
Met Office have been plugging conditions settling down but don't see any signs of that.

I reckon the MetO must be seeing something from their information that we can't see from what is available to us?

 

I reckon the MetO must be seeing something from their information that we can't see from what is available to us?

It does seem a bit unlikely but the GFS ensembles suggest a 5 dayish dry spell beginning in a couple of days time.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

Thereafter and now getting into the semi reliable, we're back to unsettled conditions but with temperatures down to average, after a long mild spell. We might even see a few blues coming into the WX temperature anomaly map if we're very, very lucky!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

 

I reckon the MetO must be seeing something from their information that we can't see from what is available to us?

Not that old chestnut again.