There has been some consistency between the last two GFS runs in sending warmth far north towards Svaalbard, which has the effect of forming a high pressure to our north-east. However, the heat does not quite make it to svaalbard on this last run and the high generated is centred therefore further south, which always puts us on the wam side. However, this is just a scenario - so I’ll take the hint at the potential for a blocking high to form, to cool things down a tad, and rest the Atlantic conveyor belt. The AMO is still in its warm phase, and blocking is always less certain under this multi-decadal period. We are though at a point in the decline of the warm period, so we might get a few more blocked winters by the time it enters the cool period, if not offset by the galloping warming attributed to Europe (heating twice as fast as the average in the world as a whole). 

WX temp summary; You may recognise this from 2 days ago - Europe as a whole still warm for the time of year with absolute values still quite high around coasts from Biscay past Spain and into the Med but not far inland. In week 2 a solid advance of cold air from the NE to the Russian border ; just to add that the cold patch over Russia is getting more intense as well as more widespread. Rain forecast also persisting;  mostly based in the Atlantic including Britain, small patch in Adriatic, moving N-wards in week 2; there is however an increase in the large dry area from N Spain up to the Baltic states so it now includes England (I'm being exact, not ignoring the rest of Britain). Italics show repeated text from yesterday.

GFS Op:A collection of LPs moving from mid-Atlantic NE-wards past Scotland through to Fri 11th (945mb S of Greenland Sat 5th and 955mb S of Iceland Thu 10th are the deepest) - then a N-S block of HP with Britain on its W side with S-lies by Sun 13th. This shuffles around in the general area of Britain but by Sat 19th is still there, 1035mb in SW approaches with NW-lies setting in.

ECM: similar to GFS but the track of the LPs is closer to Scotland and the HP block takes a couple of days longer to establish.

GEFS: temps near norm and periods of rain until Thu 10th, then dry in S & E and temps up to 8C above norm by Sun 13th with good ens agreement, descending chaotically with a little rain thereafter. Never quite dry in the N & W, and less good agreement between ens members.

More exceptional warmth on the way. When will it end?

There has been some consistency between the last two GFS runs in sending warmth far north towards Svaalbard, which has the effect of forming a high pressure to our north-east. However, the heat does not quite make it to svaalbard on this last run and the high generated is centred therefore further south, which always puts us on the wam side. However, this is just a scenario - so I’ll take the hint at the potential for a blocking high to form, to cool things down a tad, and rest the Atlantic conveyor belt. The AMO is still in its warm phase, and blocking is always less certain under this multi-decadal period. We are though at a point in the decline of the warm period, so we might get a few more blocked winters by the time it enters the cool period, if not offset by the galloping warming attributed to Europe (heating twice as fast as the average in the world as a whole). 

IIRC, there was a thread in the former climate forum on the AMO, which I think was linked to an article on the workings of the AMO that our own Gavin P had done on his own website some time back. It was quite an interesting read.

Back to the model output, and is still looks unsettled and mostly mild in the medium term. However, there are some growing suggestions from FI in some op runs of a change to a more settled period from around mid-November, which seems to tie in with the thoughts of the MetO and the BBC monthly outlooks.

What temperatures are we talking about from these charts if they were to come to fruition .Itis  all quite unreal for the time of the year...

One thing I learned about the British climate a long time ago is that sometimes, the weather pattern can flip quite suddenly and with little warning, at virtually any time of the year.

For example, if I had come onto this forum at any point during the mild and very wet November of 2009 and said that a month or so later, we would see the start of a major month-long freeze and the coldest spell of weather for about 30 years, I am pretty sure I would have been laughed right out of here. Granted, 2009 did not see the same almost continuous exceptional warmth that this year has seen, but I doubt that many, if any, people would have been expecting to see a spell of winter weather like that after the warmth of many previous winters over the preceding 20 years. Then we had 2010, which was even more unsual as that freeze started before November was even over.

More exceptional warmth on the way. When will it end?

 

 

And it looks absolutely nailed on too - not a single line below the mean for nearly a week around the middle of the month. But as David says, looks like it will be quite settled so could be quite pleasant.

What temperatures are we talking about from these charts if they were to come to fruition .Itis  all quite unreal for the time of the year...

Mid November looking like we could see 17c to 19c . 

 

And it looks absolutely nailed on too - not a single line below the mean for nearly a week around the middle of the month. But as David says, looks like it will be quite settled so could be quite pleasant.

With chilly/foggy nights perhaps.

A bit late for the 'mists and mellow fruitfulness' vibe, but it would be welcome nonetheless after a September and especially October that have felt very rainy and damp.

More exceptional warmth on the way. When will it end?

 

 

That is a think of absolutely unrivalled beauty 😍

I would say the odd of a cold spell in the next few weeks are shortening quite rapidly now. 

There have been one or two GFS op runs in recent days in FI that have suggested a colder spell later on this month to be fair, Brian. We shall see.

Based on that chart surely 2022 will be the warmest CET year ever?

think that's already very short odds (baring a repeat of Dec 2010)

The run off above average temperature is relentless 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=309&y=104&run=6&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

Must be odds on the trend will continue into the start of Winter. I'd bet on not seeing an air frost imby before Christmas. 

GFS op continues the HP theme, with a mild/very mild start gradually cooling down to average with cool nights for some. Would be interesting seeing how clear the HP is - screams 'fog' to me, which would suppress temps if persistent enough.

There's also a couple of big cold shots through Scandinavia and E.Europe too. Doesn't look like threatening us but good to see anyway and may help further through the month from a coldie POV. 

GFS op continues the HP theme, with a mild/very mild start gradually cooling down to average with cool nights for some. Would be interesting seeing how clear the HP is - screams 'fog' to me, which would suppress temps if persistent enough.

There's also a couple of big cold shots through Scandinavia and E.Europe too. Doesn't look like threatening us but good to see anyway and may help further through the month from a coldie POV. 

 

 

Was thinking the same. On the 12Z the GFS Ops run moves the HP right over the UK. Although uppers are high, I expect that we would start to see surface temperatures drop considerably as the weak sun is unable to penetrate mist, fog and low cloud.  

Control run on this evenings GFS keen on a mid month change to cold. Fairly well supported too.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069

The run off above average temperature is relentless 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=309&y=104&run=6&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

Must be odds on the trend will continue into the start of Winter. I'd bet on not seeing an air frost imby before Christmas. 

Hmmm, Christmas is between seven and eight weeks away at the moment and, even with such a long spell of above average temperatures, I think it would be a bit of a gamble for anyone to predict that there won't be any air frosts before Christmas. Especially with the continuing prediction by the MetO of a change to a more settled and possibly colder spell around the middle of this month which is also now being suggested in FI in a few GFS op runs.