WX temp anomalies still highly positive for all of western Europe and quite large in eastern Europe. But over the next two weeks the colder area in E Russia expands (some v cold E of Urals) also affecting mountain areas in the Alps and Caucasus, still quite mild in W Europe, while the Med and its coasts remain warm. Rain on Atlantic and coastal areas in week 1; a change to week 2 as this area moves N and projects E into the S Baltic; S England looking dry.
FAX shows troughs crossing Britain from the W, notably on Tue 1st (LP 998 mb Wales) but struggling to reach the SE later
GFS Op shows LP somewhere to the W or NW of Britain for the next 2 weeks (the LP on Fax no more than a dent in the isobars in this model) with winds moving round from the SW at first round to NW at the end. Winds notably strong SW Sat 5th due to LP 930mb SW Iceland and again strong NW Mon 14th due to LP 960 mb Sweden. S England rarely below 1025mb from Fri 4th, Scotland typically 1000mb for this period.
ECM has a similar pattern to GFS but pressure is generally lower across Britain with LP centres further S in the Atlantic. ECM takes a middle position between FAX and GFS for Tue 1st; for Sat 5th a trough extends S from Iceland to 985mb W of Ireland which if anything increases the strength of the gales.
GEFS temps soon dip to near norm; a little below at first switching to a little above after Tue 8th (control notably warm), with some rain throughout in most ens members even if Op suggests dry in the S, heaviest rain in W esp NW
Afterthought; I've run firework displays, and they and bonfires can be dodgy in high winds. I'd be worried if I I had an event scheduled for Saturday 5th.
Edited by user
29 October 2022 07:12:12
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Reason: Not specified
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl