picturesareme
30 October 2022 21:22:15

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


 


USA get blizzards, 1 to 2ft of snow, -5 to -10c day temps.


UK get wall to wall sunny weather, dry, a bit of frost and temps of 5-7C and night time just below 0C.


With this chart above with strong northerly in USA landmass produce lot of snow but why UK can't since the sea around us should aid more snowfall like lake effect snow?  



We often will at 500 meters up a hill here. North America is a continent and you answered your own question - the sea is the reason we don't get such cold. Also huge portion of North America sits above 400 meters in altitude. 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 October 2022 22:09:18

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


We often will at 500 meters up a hill here. North America is a continent and you answered your own question - the sea is the reason we don't get such cold. Also huge portion of North America sits above 400 meters in altitude. 



And later on in the season, once the N Sea has cooled down, Kent and East Anglia can get a lot of snow on a NE-ly wind, not unlike the 'lke effect'.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Jiries
30 October 2022 22:14:12

Originally Posted by: DEW 


 


And later on in the season, once the N Sea has cooled down, Kent and East Anglia can get a lot of snow on a NE-ly wind, not unlike the 'lke effect'.



Scotland used to get lot of snow showers from a northerly before while here sunny all day, that now changed according to Richard Aberdeen posted no more anymore?

Gandalf The White
30 October 2022 22:20:11

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


We often will at 500 meters up a hill here. North America is a continent and you answered your own question - the sea is the reason we don't get such cold. Also huge portion of North America sits above 400 meters in altitude. 



To be precise, it’s the Gulf Stream that is as important, indeed more important, than us being surrounded by the sea.


As for land above 500 metres, that’s a very small proportion - and very little land exceeds that height from the Midlands south.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
30 October 2022 22:28:41

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


We often will at 500 meters up a hill here. North America is a continent and you answered your own question - the sea is the reason we don't get such cold. Also huge portion of North America sits above 400 meters in altitude. 



That is very true. Even in the 'great plains', a lot of the land lies above 200m. 


The seas of the near Arctic have warmed considerably over the last 20 years. Showers from the north one time were nearly always certain to bring high quality snow. Nowadays, snow from the same direction is of the same quality as you would get from a returning polar maritime source. Fleeting and turns to brown sludge as soon as lands. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Zubzero
30 October 2022 23:35:31
ballamar
31 October 2022 07:53:39

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


A sign of things to come 🥱 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0


 



that is obviously favourite as it is the default pattern with the PV usually gaining strength as winter starts. But there are some hints it will not be so dominant with blocking getting a foothold at points. Will be more opportunities than recent for some decent cold scenarios. The high looks like shifting to allow some colder temps in the run up to December 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 October 2022 07:55:45

WX temp much as yesterday  anomalies for week 1 still above norm for Europe but beginning to decline, and in week 2 this trend continuing as cold air spreads across the north to Scandinavia. Still some mild weather in Biscay but although sea temps for the Med remain high, the countries bordering it are also cooling. Rain in week 1 for the Atlantic, heaviest to include all of Britain; in week 2 moving N-wards (S England dry) and adding a large patch over most of Russia (this patch closer to Ukraine than yesterday)


GFS Op has re-considered and now agrees with FAX in pushing a secondary depression across UK tomorrow Tue (FAX 998mb Channel) before the N Atlantic dominates; LP 975 mb passing Orkney Thu 3rd, and 985mb approaching Ireland Mon 7th before dying away. HP then pushing up from the S, at first fending off LP to NW but a full-on N-S ridge blocking the Atlantic Fri 11th but soon fading as deep LP 960mb Rockall with trough projected over Britain on Wed 16th. No sign of screaming N-lies which put i a brief appearance yesterday, whether affecting Britain or C Europe. 


ECM like GFS but with a tendency for the various passing LPs to leave a trough lingering in the N Sea


GEFS cooler to Sat 5th then mean temp back to norm until around Thu 10th with rain plentiful esp in S & W during this time. After the 10th there's too much disagreement between ens members for sensible comment - possibly milder and a bit drier with op & control really warm and rather dry.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
moomin75
31 October 2022 10:40:21
The GFS 6z goes pretty Scorchio again next week with a long southerly feed and temps approaching 20c.
Unbelievably showing that for around 10th November.
Incredible synoptics.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
31 October 2022 10:59:40

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The GFS 6z goes pretty Scorchio again next week with a long southerly feed and temps approaching 20c.
Unbelievably showing that for around 10th November.
Incredible synoptics.


can you link to the 20c can’t see that one thanks

Ally Pally Snowman
31 October 2022 11:05:37

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


can you link to the 20c can’t see that one thanks



Both the 9th and 10th fairly widespread 18c. Would equal the date record.  


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&time=225&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tim A
31 October 2022 11:05:53
Seems to be lots of Southern Heights promoting warm weather this year.
In fact since it all went wrong on Boxing day last year!

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
ballamar
31 October 2022 11:23:35

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Both the 9th and 10th fairly widespread 18c. Would equal the date record.  


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&time=225&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3


 



thanks couldn’t get into those - as Moomin said definitely chance of 20c

Charmhills
31 October 2022 11:27:44

Northern blocking showing up in deep fi!!



Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
moomin75
31 October 2022 11:46:00

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


can you link to the 20c can’t see that one thanks


"Approaching 20c" if the synoptics hold and sun shines, you wouldn't rule it out.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
31 October 2022 11:50:34

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


"Approaching 20c" if the synoptics hold and sun shines, you wouldn't rule it out.



indeed that 18c could easily turn into a 20c

Ally Pally Snowman
31 October 2022 11:56:49

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


thanks couldn’t get into those - as Moomin said definitely chance of 20c



Its yet another ridiculously warm run. A record warm year CET looks in the bag atm.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
31 October 2022 11:57:41

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


indeed that 18c could easily turn into a 20c


On face value, extraordinary charts. But no need for central heating, so good in a way.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
31 October 2022 12:22:32

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


On face value, extraordinary charts. But no need for central heating, so good in a way.



yes great at the moment, signs later in November of changes for Europe, whether that happens or the warmth stays who knows. As we saw with Summer could repeat and keep UK in the warmer zone

Hungry Tiger
31 October 2022 16:03:48

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The GFS 6z goes pretty Scorchio again next week with a long southerly feed and temps approaching 20c.
Unbelievably showing that for around 10th November.
Incredible synoptics.



I've gone for a CET in excess of 9.0C for this November.


It wouldn't surprise me.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


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