It is quite possible the usual jet stream could tilt more NW to SE looking at the NH profile and this could well creat colder than usual conditions. Time will tell but seeing how it all develops will keep it interesting

 

Not that old chestnut again. 

Hmmm, something must be making the MetO believe consistently that there will be a change to more settled weather towards the back end of this month, Brian.

Exactly what that is I have no idea, because while there have been tentative suggestions from the models in FI of a change to HP dominated weather later this month in some runs, there have been few and far between and not with any real consistency that I can remember.

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Hmmm, something must be making the MetO believe consistently that there will be a change to more settled weather towards the back end of this month, Brian.

Exactly what that is I have no idea, because while there have been tentative suggestions from the models in FI of a change to HP dominated weather later this month in some runs, there have been few and far between and not with any real consistency that I can remember.

There is a reasonable signal for pressure to build again after a more unsettled period.

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CFS shows how it could play out with a Scandi high

Scandi high on GFS op run right at the end, nice to see a cooler scenario. Hopefully we will see the change in the models coming through soon with some more seasonal output

WX temps - W Europe still all above seasonal norm notably Scandinavia which though cold is well above. For week 2 WX has reinstated the incursion of cold air from Siberia, this time heading more SE-ly, towards the Black Sea; W Europe a modest cooling. This weekend's unusually mild weather forecast by other sources not really showing up - does it just not last long enough? Rain on Atlantic from Britain down through France in week 1 with dry area in Ukraine, then in week 2 retreating to Atlantic fringes and dry area extending W-wards to Alps.

GFS Op - LPs at first moving past NW Britain but by Sat 12th HP established 1035mb Germany and extensive enough to cover Britain; winds going round to S as HP shrinks E-wards and Small but deep LP arrives S Ireland 980mb Tue 15th. LP on Atlantic near NW Scotland then the major influence for the rest of that week (but not as prevalent as yesterday) though the HP never gives up and by Sun 20th is back over Germany. From there it expands slowly becoming intense 1050mb Norway Fri 25th with broad ridge covering Britain.

ECM - pattern like GFS but LP 15th is further to the SW, and later that week LP is closer to W Britain. End of run is Sat 19th, too oon to confirm the resurgence of HP but looks less promising than om GFS.

GEFS - A (very) mild and dry (SE) or less wet (NW) spell to Mon 14th after which abruptly back to normal temps and frequent rainfall, even occasional snow row figures showing in far N. 

BBC - suggesting that the date record most likely to be broken at the end of this week is the overnight minimum for Scotland perhaps reaching 16C in Aberdeenshire. Other date records at risk, again other overnight records are the ones to be watching.

 

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Scandi high on GFS op run right at the end, nice to see a cooler scenario. Hopefully we will see the change in the models coming through soon with some more seasonal output

It sure would be good to have a more settled spell after all the wet weather here of the last five weeks or so, whether it is of the mild or cold type.

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It sure would be good to have a more settled spell after all the wet weather here of the last five weeks or so, whether it is of the mild or cold type.

Definitely would be good to see some settled weather now, likely to come with colder conditions this time of year and I believe it will balance out over the coming few weeks with some much colder conditions. Time will tell but there are some signs it will get colder

Interesting end to the GFS

Would certainly make sense after alot of WAA

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GFS is FI range for the build of heights over Scandi but definitely a consideration with all the warmer air pumped North something has to give

It’s that time of year when things could change quite quickly from the current established mild and wet pattern to something dryer, colder and dare I say seasonal. There are strong hints in the extended GEFS of heights building over or to our east towards the end of Nov, and the UKM extended is picking up on this I reckon.

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It’s that time of year when things could change quite quickly from the current established mild and wet pattern to something dryer, colder and dare I say seasonal. There are strong hints in the extended GEFS of heights building over or to our east towards the end of Nov, and the UKM extended is picking up on this I reckon.

Here we go again Neil 

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12Z pulls the rug swiftly, blowing away any Scandi heights in favour of a much flatter pattern with HP to the south. WIO! 😉

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12Z pulls the rug swiftly, blowing away any Scandi heights in favour of a much flatter pattern with HP to the south. WIO! ;-)

Winter can't be over as it won't start in the first place 😂

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Nice to have a whiff of something….

Nothing more to be said. I will not be lead up the garden path…yet

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Winter can't be over as it won't start in the first place 😂

You could simulate winter... Empty the freezer and jump in it!  

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Not much change overall with the very mild weather in the next couple of days followed by a gradual trend towards average for the second half of the month.

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https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022110912/ECH1-168.GIF?09-0 

I remember the days when the +168 ECMF was the holy grail .

Interesting ….

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https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022110912/ECH1-168.GIF?09-0

I remember the days when the +168 ECMF was the holy grail .

Interesting ….

Never really understood why. ECM is the best, but the differences between the big global models are small. 

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MOGREPS-G looks quite mixed at 168 but nothing really cold getting in.

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