https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022110912/ECH1-168.GIF?09-0

I remember the days when the +168 ECMF was the holy grail .

Interesting ….

Very brief affair and quickly blown away by the main player in our Winter weather, the mighty PV 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

Shock to the system if it's right.

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I checked the GFS ENS for Budapest 12z yesterday it was 5.3 and this morning 06z shows 3.4c and 12z today (for 18th showed 0.8 and now recently the 18z has the 850 to -0.8c for Budapest - so it appears that the ENS are getting colder and that there could be a cold plunge heading into much of Europe - looking at Brian's chart he posted as well. But a few days too late for a white birthday! - Last white Birthday was in Krakow, Poland in November 2007.

2 days until budapest and can't wait! - last year I was in Stockholm and on the last day the temperature reached a balmy +12c before the cold came the following week.

Back the models - this would be a shock to the system if this came about and I can't remember the last time we had a proper cold snap/spell in November!?

12z ECM shows much of Europe in warmth in mid teens but the latest GFS 18z Operational run shows parts of Europe locked into the freezer or sub-zero daytime maxes by 19th November however this run is one of the coldest ENS member. Plus it is (as always) a long way off as well.

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The 0z GFS run is fun. It doesnt bring the cold in like last night, but indicates some huge pattern change. A scandy high again with two attempts, next week sees disrupting and sliding lows, but the high is just a bit to far north.

The ensembles are starting to get that ‘look’. Less noise, clear trend downwards and tighter clustering. I’ve entered the garden path.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069

144hrs

ICON: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU00_144_1.png

GFS: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

UKMO: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

GEM: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_144_1.png

 

 

 

 

 

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Interesting pattern developing later on. The enormity of that mild-bringing HP over central Europe gets sucked up directly to our north. The potential for cold would fit Met office long range forecast for the end of this month into December.

WX temps for week 1 still everywhere above seasonal norm and up to 6C above in places, but with cold air accumulating over NE Russia. In week 2, a general cool down for W Europe, and the cold area expands as far as the Polish border as well as Scandinavia away from the Baltic with some very cold weather making an appearance in NE Russia. Rain in week 1 on the Atlantic and nearby coasts, decreasing in week 2 to patches over the North Sea and Tyrrhenian Sea. The absolutely dry area shown yesterday much reduced, now mostly N Ukraine.

GFS Op shows HP building over Europe (1035mb Switzerland Sat 12th) with consequent mild S-lies for Britain for the weekend. The HP drifts N, to N Norway 1030mb Wed 16th while LP pushes in from the Atlantic across Britain and beyond - centres 975mb SW Ireland Tue 15th, 975mb W Scotland Thu 17th and 995mb Irish Sea Sat 19th. There is then a rather indeterminate set of charts with pressure generally high, centred 1040mb Russia and 1030mb Azores by Fri 25th, with Britain affected by weak troughs in between. Yesterday's Scandi HP has not survived into today's chart but  today's novelty is an interesting prospect for surfers at Nazare with local deep LP 990mb off the coast of Portugal Sun 20th.

ECM largely copies GFS though the LP on the 19th pushes further into Europe on the 20th; and there's a more definite NE-ly starting up in Siberia at this time.

GEFS has quite good agreement between ens members for inordinately mild weather and dry to Mon 14th. with a quick return to seasonal norm and frequent rain for the rest of the forecast to Sat 26th. As ever the SE gets the best of the mild weather but the least wet, for a change, looks like being in the NE

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To be fair although brief, the end of Nov 2021 snap was pretty cold
We were running at very high anomalies not dissimilar to this year until the final week when we ended up with widespread cold and (in my not particularly northerly or high ground back yard anyway) some snow.
I remember it as probably the best cold snap of the entire winter season and was the first November snow lying in this region that I recall since the end of Nov 2010.
The month finished only on average temps as a consequence

Hmmm, Scandi High possibilities floating around peaking interest 

 

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

 

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Regarding the medium range outlook, looks like a "battleground" type scenario with huge high pressure over Europe and Atlantic lows both refusing to yield and as always the UK is in the middle of it. It can result in many days of mild and dry conditions for my neck of the woods, but also constant in-your-face southerly winds. Pretty much like today!

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To be fair although brief, the end of Nov 2021 snap was pretty cold
We were running at very high anomalies not dissimilar to this year until the final week when we ended up with widespread cold and (in my not particularly northerly or high ground back yard anyway) some snow.
I remember it as probably the best cold snap of the entire winter season and was the first November snow lying in this region that I recall since the end of Nov 2010.
The month finished only on average temps as a consequence

 

I remember it - a light dusting of snow here. 

Rest of the winter was pants.

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To be fair although brief, the end of Nov 2021 snap was pretty cold
We were running at very high anomalies not dissimilar to this year until the final week when we ended up with widespread cold and (in my not particularly northerly or high ground back yard anyway) some snow.
I remember it as probably the best cold snap of the entire winter season and was the first November snow lying in this region that I recall since the end of Nov 2010.
The month finished only on average temps as a consequence

That storm at the end of November ( Arwen? ) brought us by far the biggest snowfall of the "Winter" albeit in Autumn.

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I remember it - a light dusting of snow here. 

Rest of the winter was pants.

Saturday 27th November 2021, we woke to a dusting of snow. Then the next day, it came hard and fast in the afternoon, we cut short our visit to a garden centre as it was settling quickly.  We got a couple of inches that stayed for a day. 

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Saturday 27th November 2021, we woke to a dusting of snow. Then the next day, it came hard and fast in the afternoon, we cut short our visit to a garden centre as it was settling quickly.  We got a couple of inches that stayed for a day. 

The event on Sunday 28th was remarkable in that we were in a Northerly and the system was supposed to go down the Irish sea coast. Somehow it retained strength over the Lakes and moved SSE without losing intensity,  I haven't seen that happen before.  It was -1c during the snowfall not even marginal here and a snow on snow event.  Days like that are rare. 

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One point I'd make is that these blocks building from the south rarely deliver cold and frosty weather IME. More often than not the outcome is the high pressure remains centred a tad further south than models were signalling in the 5 to 10 day ranges and consequently winds are stronger and from more of a southwesterly direction. The fabled surface level "faux cold" turns out to be mild at the surface and aloft. I think about 10 days ago some of the models were suggesting we'd by now be entering a period of quiet weather and lower temperatures. The outcome is anything but. 

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Thousands of trees around here are still down after that storm with northerly gales. We lost 300 on our estate. Snow followed here too

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Thousands of trees around here are still down after that storm with northerly gales. We lost 300 on our estate. Snow followed here too

Same here. Lots of paths still impassible

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One point I'd make is that these blocks building from the south rarely deliver cold and frosty weather IME. More often than not the outcome is the high pressure remains centred a tad further south than models were signalling in the 5 to 10 day ranges and consequently winds are stronger and from more of a southwesterly direction. The fabled surface level "faux cold" turns out to be mild at the surface and aloft. I think about 10 days ago some of the models were suggesting we'd by now be entering a period of quiet weather and lower temperatures. The outcome is anything but. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

The last couple of GFS runs have the op showing much.milder conditions developing again later in the month. Let's hope that doesn't become any.more of a trend.

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

The last couple of GFS runs have the op showing much.milder conditions developing again later in the month. Let's hope that doesn't become any.more of a trend.

The limited amount of cold appearing even at the outer edge of the medium range ensemble models is breathtaking.  

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The limited amount of cold appearing even at the outer edge of the medium range ensemble models is breathtaking.  

Yes, it appears our weather is being influenced by that semi permanent high pressure which has been anchored to our SE for over a year. It gives occasionally to allow a west, southwest feed but reasserts it’s self soon after.

Could the Dessert high be migrating north? 

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Yes, it appears our weather is being influenced by that semi permanent high pressure which has been anchored to our SE for over a year. It gives occasionally to allow a west, southwest feed but reasserts it’s self soon after.

Could the Dessert high be migrating north? 

Isn't it just one small part of an ongoing trend over a number of decades? To my simple mind it fits well with what Paul Bartlett was talking about years ago. 

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