WX charts continue to show temps above norm for Europe esp high around the Baltic, but with a mass of cold air over Russia threatening, there is for the first time in a long while an area below norm, admittedly a long way off in the far NE. The mass of cold continues its progress E-wards in week 2, 0C isotherm not quite reaching Poland but with streaks of 0C in mountainous areas as far as the Alps - and the ultra cold (below -20C) has definitely expanded in NE Russia. Still mild in the SW, from Biscay S-wards. Rain continues on the Atlantic including Britain, with a separate patch around the Adriatic, and quite a large area of completely dry weather between these two, more so than yesterday.

GFS Op has HP well established over continental Europe (1035mb Switzerland Sat 12th) with S-lies for Britain over the weekend. By Thu 17th this HP has been squeezed into a narrow ridge Adriatic to Baltic from both sides (970 mb Ireland and 995mb Novaya Zemlya) but re-establishes itself with the chart for Tue 22nd looking like a reload of the one for this weekend (1040mb Poland this time). This time the HP declines S-wards (1035 mb N Spain) with Britain hanging on to mild SW-lies while Atlantic and Siberian LPs link up across Norway.

ECM like GFS until Mon 21st when the Atlantic becomes more active and pushes in across the Faeroes and disposes of any ridge of HP, and little sign of an impending re-load

GEFS has the well-forecast ultra mild weekend but temps back to norm from Tue 15th and rain setting in for most days thereafter. , some large totals in the W (MetO has active fronts dragging their way across England on 15th itself). While the Op run is one of the milder members of the ensemble later on, it isn't standing out as ultra mild as was the case in yesterday's 18z.

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After a brief flirtation with heights over Scandi looks like the repeating milder pattern from Summer will continue! There will be some chillier nights but cold looks to be pushed back - shame as it did look promising

More extremely mild South Westerlies looking likely again!!! #WinterIsOver

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More extremely mild South Westerlies looking likely again!!! #WinterIsOver

Which winter chart is showing that? The ensemble data show things returning to a more seasonal picture for the second half of the month as has been shown for days now. The mild outlier ending of the GFS 12z operational run (at t850hPa) may come to fruition but is not representative of the suite.

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Which winter chart is showing that? The ensemble data show things returning to a more seasonal picture for the second half of the month as has been shown for days now. The mild outlier ending of the GFS 12z operational run (at t850hPa) may come to fruition but is not representative of the suite.

Yes but it's trending milder in regards to the longer term outlook and we all know that any cold charts in the extended range will always be replaced by mild South Westerlies!!!

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Yes but it's trending milder in regards to the longer term outlook and we all know that any cold charts in the extended range will always be replaced by mild South Westerlies!!!

Trending milder? 

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More extremely mild South Westerlies looking likely again!!! #WinterIsOver

Let’s play that game of ‘Spot the outlier’, shall we?

If not entirely a complete outlier, certainly with precious little support in the latter stages.

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Trending milder? 

On balance, average is clearly the form horse. It's just that if perturbation has to go off on one, you'd prefer that it wasn't the Op. But it's too far in FI to be worrying about it yet. If I wanted to worry, though, I'd worry that it's not great to be worrying about whether or not we'll manage to see bog standard average temperatures for the entirety of the rest of November. There's no sign whatspever of anything of interest for coldies.

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Interesting that both the 18Z GFS op and the parallel (which becomes the Op at the end of the month) both end with quite significant blocking to our NE. Possibly more potential with the Parallel but the Op sets up two significant upper blocks from Iceland all the way to NW Russia.

 

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Interesting developments to our NE as we head towards December although any cold air is thousands of miles away in Russia. Also not much evidence of energy from the Atlantic heading South.

The charts are not without interest though and we have not had a sustained E/NE for a while. On the law of averages one is due.

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WX temp charts stlll have Eurotemps above average for week 1 though less so than before and with cold air threatening from Russia. In week 2 the cold air (0C isotherm) makes a big advance and covers nearly everywhere east of a line Serbia-Norway (major exception, Baltic coasts),with some much colder stuff not far east of Poland. Any remaining mild weather is to be found around Spain. Rain in week 1 from Atlantic down through Britain to Adriatic splitting into two in week 2 divided by a dry area developing from Spain up to Finland.

GFS Op - HP currently over C Europe (close enough to control British weather this weekend with mild S-lies) first forming a ridge N-wards and slipping to the east; then reviving as an intense HP somewhere near Scandinavia through to Mon 21st when peak pressure 1055mb W Russia. From Sun 27th it extends a ridge W-wards across N Britain and Ireland. In the meantime LP is active on the Atlantic and in E Russia. The former pushes forward notably Thu 17th (965 mb off NI; not as close but nevertheless severe SW gales Sun 20th and Fri 25th); the latter generates a mostly NE-ly flow to bring in the cold air referred to in WX above.

ECM - generally agrees with GFS on pressure distribution though peak pressures not as high; this allows LP to come closer to Britain Thu 24th 970mb W Ireland at end of run (compare Fri 25th in GFS)

GEFS - Rain and normal temps resume on Tue 15th for the forecast period; fairly good agreement between ens members, and perhaps a little drier towards the end (from Sun 27th). Least wet in E England & SE Scotland; some big rainfall totals in SW England and NI with occasional bursts of milder weather in the SW.

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Still tempting to think cold will win later this month.

If Met office long range text is to come to fruition then you’d expect a continued/ amplified picture in the way of high latitude blocking into FI

The elevated heights to the north east on many of the recent runs suggest some potential for something wintry further down the line, so not necessarily an Atlantic fest as we go towards December.

The elevated heights to the north east on many of the recent runs suggest some potential for something wintry further down the line, so not necessarily an Atlantic fest as we go towards December.

 

Thats what I am thinking, all this dragging mild weather up from Azores etc has been keeping the Arctic plunges from escaping, looking like sea ice is more than average of last few years which suggests the Arctic has been cooling nicely.

 

There appears to be no new, or recent Atlantic tropical cyclone / hurricanes, allowing for a week or so time lag, tends to result in no major depressions in North Atlantic, so possibly going to see jet stream change its trajectory over the Atlantic.

 

Putting all this together, I too agree that there is an increasing chance of some wintery weather, but probably not until early or mid December.  Over next fortnight I think we need to be looking more towards Iceland and Faroes (rather than Atlantic) to see what will be coming.

To give an example of where I am coming from, look at this weather chart for Iceland, look at today winds are southerly, slide the bar to Thursday and the winds are north easterly

https://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/areas/

The idea that you can have west-south west jet stream and winds 180 degrees opposite doesn’t make sense to me, so looks like something more interesting than just losing southerly winds is starting to happen in northern Atlantic.

 

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Thats what I am thinking, all this dragging mild weather up from Azores etc has been keeping the Arctic plunges from escaping, looking like sea ice is more than average of last few years which suggests the Arctic has been cooling nicely.

 

There appears to be no new, or recent Atlantic tropical cyclone / hurricanes, allowing for a week or so time lag, tends to result in no major depressions in North Atlantic, so possibly going to see jet stream change its trajectory over the Atlantic.

 

Putting all this together, I too agree that there is an increasing chance of some wintery weather, but probably not until early or mid December.  Over next fortnight I think we need to be looking more towards Iceland and Faroes (rather than Atlantic) to see what will be coming.

To give an example of where I am coming from, look at this weather chart for Iceland, look at today winds are southerly, slide the bar to Thursday and the winds are north easterly

https://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/areas/

The idea that you can have west-south west jet stream and winds 180 degrees opposite doesn’t make sense to me, so looks like something more interesting than just losing southerly winds is starting to happen in northern Atlantic.

 

This constant barrage of warm from the south has actually been caused by extreme cold across western parts of the US & Canada. 

 

This constant barrage of warm from the south has actually been caused by extreme cold across western parts of the US & Canada. 

Will be some other pattern set up by December to make that come in above average to. These days it seems 90% of the pieces need to be in place to get an average month temperature wise let alone below. 

Random location in the Midlands 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=271&y=83&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Most runs not even showing a grass frost yet 1or 2 show brief air frost. 

 

Will be some other pattern set up by December to make that come in above average to. These days it seems 90% of the pieces need to be in place to get an average month temperature wise let alone below. 

Random location in the Midlands 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=271&y=83&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Most runs not even showing a grass frost yet 1or 2 show brief air frost. 

Makes you realize frostless and snowless winters in swathes of the south will become the norm very quickly. These were the preserve of the Scilly Isles before rampaging warming set in. 

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No sign of anything remotely cold. Looks very wet, flooding becoming likely even in the South. 

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Indeed. If you live in the South / South East inparticular this Autumn has been a glance into the future.
March and October are fast becoming 'useful' months with February and November the new shoulder months before real cold (not thd extreme stuff just that which needs a coat) .
I view anything above about 18c as shorts and T shirt weather and, provided it's dry, good for being outdoors. This October had plenty of 18c day maximums in the Southeast.

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Makes you realize frostless and snowless winters in swathes of the south will become the norm very quickly. These were the preserve of the Scilly Isles before rampaging warming set in. 

Absolutely - you can see that in gardens across the Southern half of the UK. Many plants that used to be the preserve of Scilly and the far Southwest are now prevelant. Think Agapanthus and Echiums for example. 

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