GFS 0z is the hottest run I've ever seen. 1976 but with added GW.

28c, 29c, 31c, 33c, 33c, 28c, 31c, 37c  38c, 33c, 30c, 33c, 35c, 39c, 31c.

Beautiful heatwave temperatures.  Will not drop until France lose it furnace heat but seem no end on sight there until Autumn or later in August when sun get lower will reduce it there back to average in France. 

Looks like it's now about a 50% chance that we see 39/40c next weekend.

00z runs normally the worse run with downgrades but this time upgraded.  Leeds records I know is 35C and if this go far north enough might break that.  I was in boarding school when I was taught that Leeds reached 35C from the closed weather station sadly.

 

Beautiful heatwave temperatures.  Will not drop until France lose it furnace heat but seem no end on sight there until Autumn or later in August when sun get lower will reduce it there back to average in France. 

And I don’t want evil clouds spoiling any record attempts 

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Today looks like reaching 26 or 27 degrees. Crazy to think this could be the coldest day for a fortnight!

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Today looks like reaching 26 or 27 degrees. Crazy to think this could be the coldest day for a fortnight!

Thankfully my heatwave threshold has always been 25C. Only because as a kid when the temp symbols went orange you knew it was hot!

But it’s annoying today from a statistical POV

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Whatever happens, these are truly historic charts. Absolutely amazing.

although you did say there was no chance of 40c - why sweeping statements should be avoided. 

 

And I don’t want evil clouds spoiling any record attempts 

Unexpected cloudy here this morning now breaking up but need to be cloud free and not gale force winds like last month one day wonder was too windy to enjoy. Light southerly winds and sharp blue skies will break a record easily with dry ground help. 

This thread is becoming a rather SE-centric. For the next two weeks, England and esp the SE will remain hot according to WX summary as France continues to export some of its ultra-heat - and the rest of Continental Europe isn't much cooler  (Hot spots Spain, Italy, Hungary). Meanwhile cool/cold air continues to sweep across N Scotland and on to Scandinavia and N Russia; difficult to tell at the scale of the chart but it looks as if iceland may even have a 0C isotherm in week 2. Rain generally across the far N, Continental Europe and England dry, damp patches over Alps and Caucasus

GFS - Azores HP forming ridge to N Sea/Denmark, occasionally weakening to allow LP over France to feed in some extra warmth (Wed  13th, Sun 17th) ; by Sat 23rd, LP Faeroes 990mb deep enough to bring NW-lies and cool things down

GEFS - in line with above - in the S very warm Wed 13th, well agreed; then a brief dip but still above norm; then extreme heat Sun 17th for a day or two (mean 7-8C above norm with many ens members incl op & control 15C above norm (would be top 30s daytime); mean back to norm Thu 21st though op run sticks it out a bit longer. Some possibility of  a little rain from Tue 19th. In Scotland esp the W, the peaks and troughs are there on the same dates but never more than 5C above norm, and ending with a week with mean just below norm, Small amounts of rain at any time.

ECM - similar to GFS though less incursion from LP Wed 13th, but Sun 17th is included

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 And I don’t want evil clouds spoiling any record attempts 

As others have stated we now looked nicely primed to break records. Having seen so many runs showing 39-42c for 9 days now its hard to believe that the record we're attempting to beat is a 'mere' 38.7c. 

Time to sit back, keep cool and watch this potentially historical event unfold before our eyes.

If we can avoid evil, angry, illegal UK cloud infections it looks very possible.

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Jaw dropping Gfs Op this morning. Shame it’s out on its own later on with the mean 850’s falling back to average.

 

although you did say there was no chance of 40c - why sweeping statements should be avoided. 

Now now. We've moved on from all that.

If the charts keep showing it, who am I to dismiss it.

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Time to sit back, keep cool and watch this potentially historical event unfold before our eyes.

 

How exactly? I'm in a poorly insulated house with just a fan for comfort. And a heart condition. This could kill me

At least the pub is nice and cool! though even Mr Wetherspoon wont let me sleep there overnight

 

 

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Control run of GEFS is even hotter at the peak although not as long lasting.

Met Office forecast for my area still not going above 29C for this coming week, playing it cautious. BBC goes for 31C early next week.

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Not so many 40Cs on this morning’s GEFS. Only P15 and P18 I think. So the op is unusually high in the pack, though clearly not an outlier.

ECM has been more reliable in this spell, with the rebuild end of next week, so I’m interested to see what its ensemble looks like.

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Ecm Mean incoming heat low for Saturday 16th very hot chart then a rebuild of pressure there after very good summer run.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

 

Not so many 40Cs on this morning’s GEFS. Only P15 and P18 I think. So the op is unusually high in the pack, though clearly not an outlier.

ECM has been more reliable in this spell, with the rebuild end of next week, so I’m interested to see what its ensemble looks like.

who am I to dismiss it. 

You might not dismiss it, but I will… 

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As others have stated we now looked nicely primed to break records. Having seen so many runs showing 39-42c for 9 days now its hard to believe that the record we're attempting to beat is a 'mere' 38.7c. 

Time to sit back, keep cool and watch this potentially historical event unfold before our eyes.

If we can avoid evil, angry, illegal UK cloud infections it looks very possible.

Some borderline illegal cloud this morning, certainly worthy of a FPN.

Nice, steady as she goes ICON 06z, a little hotter midweek than 00z though still cooler than GFS or ECM.

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GFS 06z up to Saturday, and…here we go.

(34C UK, 47C SW France).

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GFS looks hotter to me.

After illegal clouds this morning tbe sun has come through and it already feels warm. We could add 10-12C to this in a week!

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