I've removed the last thread to review. New one. 

---

Some bonkers members in the 06z suite yet again, more so than the last couple of runs:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 

GFS op run eventually blows the heat away but it never goes too far away.

Meanwhile the GEFS mean is two or three degrees warmer than last run by 264 hours. Some proper furnace heat in there with the hottest members close to 25C at 850mb again.

My feeling based on all the output is that the chance of record heat at the end of next week is ticking upwards.

---

GFS op run eventually blows the heat away but it never goes too far away.

Meanwhile the GEFS mean is two or three degrees warmer than last run by 264 hours. Some proper furnace heat in there with the hottest members close to 25C at 850mb again.

My feeling based on all the output is that the chance of record heat at the end of next week is ticking upwards.

Agree with this interpretation. It is wise in any season to play the waiting game when ‘extreme’ solutions appear in the suite, but the consistency and increasing frequency of scenarios (both discrete members and means) potentially delivering very high maxima should be taken seriously (as the UKMO are doing with the Level 3 heat alert now issued).

In many ways extreme heat is just as serious health wise as extreme cold.

---

Here’s hoping we don’t get into level 4 territory would be very dangerous for many. Cannot help think one of the extreme scenarios will happen at some point this year 39c+ is very viable at some time in the next 4 weeks if not beyond.

Here’s hoping we don’t get into level 4 territory would be very dangerous for many. Cannot help think one of the extreme scenarios will happen at some point this year 39c+ is very viable at some time in the next 4 weeks if not beyond.

You would imagine with the build of heat to our south that this is certainly a possibility.

Especially given we are long overdue a hot August too.

---

Don't know if anyone replied to my request in the 'now under review' thread, but would someone please provide links to the ECM46 & GFS35. 

Thank you 

---

GFS op run eventually blows the heat away but it never goes too far away.

Meanwhile the GEFS mean is two or three degrees warmer than last run by 264 hours. Some proper furnace heat in there with the hottest members close to 25C at 850mb again.

My feeling based on all the output is that the chance of record heat at the end of next week is ticking upwards.

I'll do the average peak day analysis and report back.

---

 

I'll do the average peak day analysis and report back.

OK. Mean peak day on 06z is 19.44 which is an Upgrade from 00z. Median peak day is 18.5 which is steady as she goes.

---

Don't know if anyone replied to my request in the 'now under review' thread, but would someone please provide links to the ECM46 & GFS35. 

Thank you 

GEFS35 on TWO 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

Anomalies

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx

I just use the standard deviation, mean  and control runs. Don't personally think all the individual runs add value at that range. 

 

 

 

 

 

---

Don't know if anyone replied to my request in the 'now under review' thread, but would someone please provide links to the ECM46 & GFS35. 

Thank you 

Haven't got link for ECM 46 but it was recently posted on the t'other side and it was above average. Also the seasonal ECM forecast for August which I believe is different to 46 shows a warm or very warm August for the UK.

---

 

GEFS35 on TWO 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

Anomalies

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx

I just use the standard deviation, mean  and control runs. Don't personally think all the individual runs add value at that range.  

Haven't got link for ECM 46 but it was recently posted on the t'other side and it was above average. Also the seasonal ECM forecast for August which I believe is different to 46 shows a warm or very warm August for the UK.

 

Thanks

 

(although the GFS doesn't bring much cheer for when I'm in NW Scotland )

 

 

---

 

Agree with this interpretation. It is wise in any season to play the waiting game when ‘extreme’ solutions appear in the suite, but the consistency and increasing frequency of scenarios (both discrete members and means) potentially delivering very high maxima should be taken seriously (as the UKMO are doing with the Level 3 heat alert now issued).

In many ways extreme heat is just as serious health wise as extreme cold.

Agreed too unless France rapidly cool down then we stay in warm to hot side.

The serious heat is starting to get in high-res range.

Arpege 12Z out of the blocks with a max of 35C as early as Tuesday.

---

The serious heat is starting to get in high-res range.

Arpege 12Z out of the blocks with a max of 35C as early as Tuesday.

Has been threatening to be that hot Tuesday - interesting to see upgrades

 

Has been threatening to be that hot Tuesday - interesting to see upgrades

GFS likewise. 33C Tuesday 35C Wednesday.

---

GFS has 31C on Monday, 32C on Tuesday and also a cheeky 35C on Wednesday. For today it went for 28C as the max and I reckon we might have seen a 29.

 

However GFS also shows the trigger low coming in too far north and cutting off the heat too early. The 20C isotherm just kind of gives up and dissipates.

---

GFS has 31C on Monday, 32C on Tuesday and also a cheeky 35C on Wednesday. For today it went for 28C as the max and I reckon we might have seen a 29.

This has an august 2003 feel about it, that had a mid week peak and then a surge by the Sunday. This time I suspect will be hotter.

---

The thing is though, the reason the first blast is hotter is because the low comes closer to the UK. Which also means it cuts off the flow earlier, so we may not get a second bite on this run.

---

 

Haven't got link for ECM 46 but it was recently posted on the t'other side and it was above average. Also the seasonal ECM forecast for August which I believe is different to 46 shows a warm or very warm August for the UK.

Shows warm/very warm over much of the continent as well for August:

 

---