GFS starting to look very hot in the SE Tuesday/ Wednesday. 35/36c would certainly be notably hot 🔥🔥🔥

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GFS starting to look very hot in the SE Tuesday/ Wednesday. 35/36c would certainly be notably hot 🔥🔥🔥

Certainly a lot cooler after that though. Low 20s by the 20th is a bit different!

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GFS starting to look very hot in the SE Tuesday/ Wednesday. 35/36c would certainly be notably hot 🔥🔥🔥

Only yesterday they were going for low to mid 20's brief cool down. With the changes so much window and thermometer watching is the best way to do that.  Today I recorded 27C here which is 3C way out of mark from the forecast of 24C only.  Still expecting very hot to record heat at the weekend as the severe heat in France need to go somewhere, that UK to get hit unless tomorrow change it mind and link the Tue-Wed heat with the expected record heat at the weekend.

UKMO looking steady as well. It is starting to look more as though the peak of the heat will be between Monday and Wednesday, with no potential record-breaker at the weekend. That low pressure is just coming in too early and too far north to scoop up the really hot stuff.

GFS now showing the 4C isotherm down here on the 19th, never mind the 24C!

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Just no respite for Spain, the heat builds yet again.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022070812/gfs-1-318.png?12 

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Shows warm/very warm over much of the continent as well for August:

 

Yes that's the fella, thanks.

 

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GFS looks ripe for a reload at the end. No record heat this run (for the UK anyway) but a very pleasant summer run with some more heat on the cards later.

However much depends on the interaction of this Iberian low with the hot air over the next few days.

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The 12s so far seem to have ramped up the heat somewhat.  GEM produces one of its hottest runs so far , UKMO looks ripe for a significant plume at 168h. ICON also hot.

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P25 for the cherry pickers, 42C

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It just goes to show that many long-range forecasts can't be taken to gospel. Back in spring, much of the talk about the summer ahead was along the lines of making the most of May and June before July onwards turned poor. Now it looks like we could end up with July and into August being the best part of the summer, whilst May and June weren't anything to write home about...

Some great model runs tonight! Hope they set us up for the rest of the season!

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It just goes to show that many long-range forecasts can't be taken to gospel. Back in spring, much of the talk about the summer ahead was along the lines of making the most of May and June before July onwards turned poor. Now it looks like we could end up with July and into August being the best part of the summer, whilst May and June weren't anything to write home about...

Some great model runs tonight! Hope they set us up for the rest of the season!

 

Amen to that, bro!

 

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It just goes to show that many long-range forecasts can't be taken to gospel. Back in spring, much of the talk about the summer ahead was along the lines of making the most of May and June before July onwards turned poor. Now it looks like we could end up with July and into August being the best part of the summer, whilst May and June weren't anything to write home about...

Some great model runs tonight! Hope they set us up for the rest of the season!

I'm not sure who was saying that. The models were consistently showing above average temperatures and the rain signal was mixed as ever. Also, we continue to have month after month above CET. 

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I'm not sure who was saying that. The models were consistently showing above average temperatures and the rain signal was mixed as ever. Also, we continue to have month after month above CET. 

I can’t remember either, but it was definitely a talking point. Most probably the words of a certain dramatic individual when a single run had a bullseye over the UK at +900 hrs 

P25 for the cherry pickers, 42C

P11 for the connoisseurs 

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Just back in after a couple of pints in a nice beer garden on a warm summer evening. Looking at the comments I was expecting a huge midweek dip in the 12z Ens and a low peak next weekend. But the mean is actually up on the 6z. The Ops is a lot cooler for much of the run so hopefully it will not be fully representative.

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Just the 25c 850s into Cornwall at 216h. Strange ending to ECM but very hot in the south. 

 

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Europe is going to absolutely boiling next week, with another surge from Wednesday. I expect this will continue to build and feed us further hot airmasses for some considerable time to come, so long as high pressure remains roughly in situ over France. 

 

 

Looking at ECM again, I think what could be missing to bring the magic 40c to our shores is the presence of HP over the baltics/ to our east which would draw up a direct feed. It’d be more moisture laden and subject to quicker breakdowns, mind.

I can’t remember either, but it was definitely a talking point. Most probably the words of a certain dramatic individual when a single run had a bullseye over the UK at +900 hrs 

There are some analysts (not on this forum as far as I am aware but on YouTube, Twitter etc.) who are constantly predicting (or informing me privately) that we will imminently turn the corner and start consistently experiencing colder than average months. Various reasons are advanced. The only thing they all have in common at the moment is they have all been consistently wrong.

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18z dropping out and so far so hot. Maxes from tomorrow 28 (a 1C upgrade), 29, 31, 33, 35, 30

followed by 31 then 38.

Uncannily like August 2003.

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