Donate to browse the TWO website without adverts until 31st December 2024. You'll also get access to extra features and supporting our ongoing development.
For full details please see Advert free access on our website.
There are some analysts (not on this forum as far as I am aware but on YouTube, Twitter etc.) who are constantly predicting (or informing me privately) that we will imminently turn the corner and start consistently experiencing colder than average months. Various reasons are advanced. The only thing they all have in common at the moment is they have all been consistently wrong.
I crossed swords with Joe Bast**di some years back when he was pushing his climate change denial line. There are some very stupid people out there, in many cases wilfully stupid since the data is there in the public domain.
There is actually some statistical logic to that theory.
The 0z is bonkers. I mean most days right up until the end of the run are 27-30C.We then have three peak period of heat.1. Tuesday/Wednesday next week 33C-34C2. Saturday/Sunday next week 37-39C3. Thur/Friday following week 37C-39C
The UK record is now under threat and suspect we are closer now to 40C more than we have ever been. I’ll await the rest of the models with interest. The 18z was just as good btw
The 0z is bonkers. I mean most days right up until the end of the run are 27-30C.We then have three peak period of heat.1. Tuesday/Wednesday next week 33C-34C2. Saturday/Sunday next week 37-39C3. Thur/Friday following week 37C-39CThe UK record is now under threat and suspect we are closer now to 40C more than we have ever been. I’ll await the rest of the models with interest. The 18z was just as good btw
A little scary it’s been in the potential for a while now and isn’t disappearing. Possibly more dangerous than cold in winter for the vulnerable
GFS 0z is the hottest run I've ever seen. 1976 but with added GW.
28c, 29c, 31c, 33c, 33c, 28c, 31c, 37c 38c, 33c, 30c, 33c, 35c, 39c, 31c.
GFS 0z is the hottest run I've ever seen. 1976 but with added GW.28c, 29c, 31c, 33c, 33c, 28c, 31c, 37c 38c, 33c, 30c, 33c, 35c, 39c, 31c.
Your 38C is actually a 39C it was one grid point, I think I almost missed it to. Sorry for pulling hairs lol
Yes I find those high res charts hard to read on my phone . A genuinely historic run this morning..
Or when you half asleep lol. And agree, astonishing run. One for the historians to mull over.
There does appear to be growing signs of something exceptional however, but still a long way off meteorologically speaking. We are still looking at days 8-10 and then day 14 for the extremes.
Static image of the GFS 00z showing 39C on Sun 17th July below.
Link to dynamic chart:
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=00&charthour=207&chartname=uk2mtmpsohd&chartregion=uks&charttag=Max%20temp
Speechless at this run. However, for some balance, today's 0z GEM is considerably cooler.There does appear to be growing signs of something exceptional however, but still a long way off meteorologically speaking. We are still looking at days 8-10 and then day 14 for the extremes.
Speechless at this run. However, for some balance, today's 0z GEM is considerably cooler.
That's wrong. GFS 00z shows extreme heat on day 9.
Agreed, the same period it’s been showing for days now.
A few years ago 34C on Tuesday next week would have been considered extreme, in fact I’d say it is.
Ive also looked at GEM. The op is ok, but only out to Tuesday. The first ensembles I looked at was better.
Sorry Brian, that's what I've said. Days 8-10 and Day 14 for extremes.
UKMO looks like the record plume is incoming at 168h.
Static image of the GFS 00z showing 39C on Sun 17th July below.Link to dynamic chart:https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=00&charthour=207&chartname=uk2mtmpsohd&chartregion=uks&charttag=Max%20temp
Look like is nailed on for 17th as a hottest day of the year so far on that run, if any further hotter ones still in FI. it been showing for that date and many will be off and school holiday starting. Impressive to see central Cornwall which have small landmass and most temperate at 35C. Any one know what the hottest record for Cornwall county? Add 2-2C on top of that might see mid to high 30's for the Midlands and possible 39-40C further south.