GFS looks hotter to me.

After illegal clouds this morning tbe sun has come through and it already feels warm. We could add 10-12C to this in a week!

Flirting with the 25C isotherm by Saturday night…

EDIT: 35C at 9am on Sunday. This looks like a 40Cer.

41C by 12pm on Sunday.….and 43C by 15z.

Hottest op run temperature in the history of the major models.

41C by 12pm on Sunday.….and 43C by 15z.

Hottest op run temperature in the history of the major models.

absolutely bonkers run 

Static snapshot of what is the most worrying forecast chart for the UK that has ever been churned out by a major operational model. Absolutely terrifying.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=201&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

25c isotherm a good way into the country on the 6z.
OMG!!! 🥵🥵🥵🥵

Surprising that Q isn't around - he'd be going gaga over the 28C 850s on today's 6z GFS op. (And yes, that's the highest I know of ever forecast for the UK).

As those low 40s temperatures would be accompanied by dewpoints pushing towards zero, i.e. 10% RH or less, the fire risk would be off the scale...

Static snapshot of what is the most worrying forecast chart for the UK that has ever been churned out by a major operational model. Absolutely terrifying.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=201&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

  

Looks like a Sandton Downham or Cambridge botanic gardens day, or possibly one for Brogdale to sneak in at the last minute.

The 46s and 47s across large areas of Western France are frankly catastrophic. 

Static snapshot of what is the most worrying forecast chart for the UK that has ever been churned out by a major operational model. Absolutely terrifying.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=201&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

  

Wow that is just crazy.. If that were to verify records would be smashed.

06z is nuts! 

Outer Hebrides or Lerwick the place to be.

As those low 40s temperatures would be accompanied by dewpoints pushing towards zero, i.e. 10% RH or less, the fire risk would be off the scale...

Those low dew points will make it far easier for people to cool down, given that evaporation rates would be very high. Add in a little bit of a breeze, and it would be quite tolerable. 

41C by 12pm on Sunday.….and 43C by 15z.

Hottest op run temperature in the history of the major models.

This is getting surreal now!

It might be 44C, not 43C. I wonder if Brian could check the gridpoints.

I've found a 111F contour which corresponds to 43.9C so I'd be suprised if there isn't a grid point near Harleston that shows 44C

Surprising that Q isn't around - he'd be going gaga over the 28C 850s on today's 6z GFS op. (And yes, that's the highest I know of ever forecast for the UK).

As those low 40s temperatures would be accompanied by dewpoints pushing towards zero, i.e. 10% RH or less, the fire risk would be off the scale...

 

Mark Vogan in one of his recent videos showed us an actual fire risk chart from the ECM and I would love to know exactly where he got that from, otherwise I would have posted that here for everyone to have a look at.

The charts showed that large parts of the UK didn't actually have much of a fire risk including the whole of Scotland away from the SE of Scotland.

However, the fire risks were shown to be quite high in that SE quarter of the UK with those risks (albeit at a more moderate level) also extending up across the east of England and even into SE Scotland, including here in Edinburgh.

Given that the highest temperatures are forecast to be in SE England, that is probably where the highest risk is likely to, but I don't believe in any way that it is only the SE of England which would be at risk.

Given the ongoing worsening water scarcity situation here in SE Scotland along, I can see why there is a possible fire risk even here especially given that we are also expecting to see some fairly high temperatures going into the start of next week (albeit, not anything like as high as what they could potentially be in SE England).

There was even a recent fire on Calton Hill here in Edinburgh, and there has also been a number of fires on Arthur's Seat in recent years. Given the latest model output, I can only see those fire risks increasing and my fear is there is going to come a time when at least someone is going to get injured, or possibly even killed by that.

This is therefore no laughing matter, and is an issue which needs to be taken very seriously, especially as these risks are going to be even higher still over that SE quarter of the UK.

It might be 44C, not 43C. I wonder if Brian could check the gridpoints.

I've found a 111F contour which corresponds to 43.9C so I'd be suprised if there isn't a grid point near Harleston that shows 44C

The Kent map has 43 just by Brogdale too. Battle royale between the last 2 record holders?

Scary to see it on an Op run which in my opinion makes it much more credible that it could happen under the right conditions.

I was always uncomfortable looking at individual ensemble members max 2m temps, we do it as is interesting and the data is there, but if you read the weather textbooks on ensembles they are not for that purpose. Specifically sceptical that individual ensembles can anywhere near predict the right convection/cloud and other conditions at that range meaning the temps could be way off. 

 

Those low dew points will make it far easier for people to cool down, given that evaporation rates would be very high. Add in a little bit of a breeze, and it would be quite tolerable. 

Yes I have been in Melbourne when the temperature hit 40C and there was a strong breeze with dry air. It was quite bearable albeit a very weird feeling, like the flow from a hand dryer!

Static snapshot of what is the most worrying forecast chart for the UK that has ever been churned out by a major operational model. Absolutely terrifying.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=201&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

  

39-40C over my area and very exciting to experience it even if dangerous.  if somewhere going to be well over 40C here should this heatwave called heat dome like last year in Canada which broke the record by 5C?  if 43c reached that nearly 5C jump from the previous record. if not a huge outlier then that a serious heat dome is on the way.

 

Yes I have been in Melbourne when the temperature hit 40C and there was a strong breeze with dry air. It was quite bearable albeit a very weird feeling, like the flow from a hand dryer!

Last month 1 day wonder was dry hot air via gale force winds despite reached 31C here did not feel hot felt like 23-24C maxies.

Early glance at the GFS ensemble for London rolling out would suggest the OP is the top of the pack around 17/18th July…though not entirely without some support….