If things play out the way they are forecasted to, I expect this summer will turn out to be a very historic one. I usually find that you can add a degree or two to the forecasted temperatures, so if 36°C is predicted, we can assume that 38°C is a reasonable possibility. Let's let that play out:

1) A heat wave that brings the first ever 40°C in July, and virtually the entire country smashing their local records to boot.
2) A 38°C heat wave in August, that either sets or comes very close to a new August record.
3) Two 18°C+ CET months - a feat that only 1911 and 1995 have achieved.
4) Probably the worst drought since 1976 in the southern half of the country.

And whilst it's technically autumn, I wouldn't be surprised if September does something remarkable too, given the state of the land and atmosphere this summer...

Usually August is poor weatherwise (to my memory), but the last few Augusts have been warm, sunny, and mostly dry (Correct me if I'm wrong), as it was built in my mind that after wet and miserable August, the kids went back to school, first week September, and we had a sunny dry warm September...

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The Met Office have issued a level 3 heatwave alert for East and West Midlands, South West England, South East England, London and East of England from 12:00  Tuesday to 18:00 on Saturday

 

The met office have also issued a level 2 heatwave alert for the rest of England

For this upcoming roughly 1-week heatwave I think the events to compare are:

August 2003 (10 days >30C, max 38C)
August 2020 (6 consecutive days >34C, 5 tropical nights)
August 1995 (I think 5 consecutive days >30C peaking at 35C - with more hot weather later in the month)

So far we look a little cooler and shorter than 2003, and a little cooler but perhaps a bit longer than 2020. We should beat 1995 but of course that was a prelude to an entire month of heat and drought.

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If things play out the way they are forecasted to, I expect this summer will turn out to be a very historic one. I usually find that you can add a degree or two to the forecasted temperatures, so if 36°C is predicted, we can assume that 38°C is a reasonable possibility. Let's let that play out:

1) A heat wave that brings the first ever 40°C in July, and virtually the entire country smashing their local records to boot.
2) A 38°C heat wave in August, that either sets or comes very close to a new August record.
3) Two 18°C+ CET months - a feat that only 1911 and 1995 have achieved.
4) Probably the worst drought since 1976 in the southern half of the country.

And whilst it's technically autumn, I wouldn't be surprised if September does something remarkable too, given the state of the land and atmosphere this summer...

And we round the whole thing off with a late September/early October heatwave 2011 style. We get the first 30C recorded in October, the current record  is 29.9C on the 1st which is ripe for the taking! I see Coningsby holds the joint date record for the 2nd & 3rd :)

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And we round the whole thing off with a late September/early October heatwave 2011 style. We get the first 30C recorded in October, the current record  is 29.9C on the 1st which is ripe for the taking! I see Coningsby holds the joint date record for the 2nd & 3rd :)

I wouldn't say "no" to that. October is just asking for a 30°C record!

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We’ve begun our ‘official heatwave’ today with the temp topping 28c, our threshold here is 27c.  What was today’s highest temp?

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We’ve begun our ‘official heatwave’ today with the temp topping 28c, our threshold here is 27c.  What was today’s highest temp?

From what I can see Charlwood was 30C (rounded?) and Heathrow 29.7C.

Will be very annoying if Charlwood didn’t manage a proper 30C today after getting nearly there in early afternoon.

EDIT: I see they managed 30.0C exactly, so we’re up and running.

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From what I can see Charlwood was 30C (rounded?) and Heathrow 29.7C.

  Thank you!  Unfortunately Doncaster didn’t report between 14:50 and 16:20. at peak heat time. 

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I’m not expecting noteworthy temperatures here during the upcoming spell - this high pressure set up with an easterly flow coming from the N Sea usually moderates temperatures somewhat here. We do much better with a S or SE flow - much longer land track. It was the same during July 2018 when it was consistently 27-29C but never any higher. I also expect the nights to be relatively cool - wouldn’t be surprised to have a few days with diurnal ranges approaching 20C.

I’d actually expect Blackpool and the like to record some of the hotter temperatures under this setup.

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I’m not expecting noteworthy temperatures here during the upcoming spell - this high pressure set up with an easterly flow coming from the N Sea usually moderates temperatures somewhat here. We do much better with a S or SE flow - much longer land track. It was the same during July 2018 when it was consistently 27-29C but never any higher. I also expect the nights to be relatively cool - wouldn’t be surprised to have a few days with diurnal ranges approaching 20C.

I’d actually expect Blackpool and the like to record some of the hotter temperatures under this setup.

Yep, 11c here this morning and most nights look like they will be below 15c so I think it will be quiet comfortable particularly as the sun is a bit weaker so the house may not be warmed up as much.  30c is possible perhaps on Friday or Saturday but for the most part just below. 

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Will be very annoying if Charlwood didn’t manage a proper 30C today after getting nearly there in early afternoon.

EDIT: I see they managed 30.0C exactly, so we’re up and running.

Yes 30.0 on the nose which is the 10th 30C of the summer. 

And talking of 30, today will be the 30th day of the summer to reach 80F, which is a good old-fashioned benchmark for a hot summer day. 

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This year should definitively put to rest the myth that La Niña is bad for British summers.

If we take the ENSO state in the preceding winter-spring before major hot UK summers we easily see there is no relationship:

1975, 1976, 2018, 2022 La Niña
1983, 1989, 1995, 2003, 2006 El Niño

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This year should definitively put to rest the myth that La Niña is bad for British summers.

If we take the ENSO state in the preceding winter-spring before major hot UK summers we easily see there is no relationship:

1975, 1976, 2018, 2022 La Niña
1983, 1989, 1995, 2003, 2006 El Niño

Also the opposite is also a myth in that a La Nina is good for cold winters,21-22 being the most recent. It is worth noting though that prolonged dry periods and persistant high pressure tend to occur during La Nina.

The met office have issued an amber warning for extreme heat issued from Thursday to Sunday for;

• East Midlands


• East of England


• London & South East England


• North West England


• South West England


• Wales


• West Midlands


• Yorkshire & Humber

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-08-11&id=47fce950-e67b-4271-9a07-92ba94c1934a&details

 

Just to put this year in perspective, I counted up the 30C days in summer 2018 and by August 8th we had already had 24!

I'd forgotten just how relentless the heat was that year.

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Just to put this year in perspective, I counted up the 30C days in summer 2018 and by August 8th we had already had 24!

I'd forgotten just how relentless the heat was that year.

Yep, nothing super extreme but day after day of 30-32C

Of course, in 2018 by this stage we had already had all of the 30C days we were going to get. There was only one more day of 28C+ in the last two-thirds of August, and for most of the last week it struggled to get much above 20C.

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Of course, in 2018 by this stage we had already had all of the 30C days we were going to get. There was only one more day of 28C+ in the last two-thirds of August, and for most of the last week it struggled to get much above 20C.

Do you have the stats for how many 28 and 29 days that summer had? Feels like we’ve got close but not quite to 30C a lot this year. Including possibly today?

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Do you have the stats for how many 28 and 29 days that summer had? Feels like we’ve got close but not quite to 30C a lot this year. Including possibly today?

Yes I put the data into a spreadsheet.

2022 (to 8 Aug): 25C+ 37 days, 28C+  23 days, 29C+ 16 days, 30C+ 10 days, 32C+ 5 days, 35C+ 2 days

2018 (to 8 Aug): 25C+ 51 days, 28C+  32 days, 29C+ 27 days, 30C+ 24 days, 32C+ 6 days, 35C+ 2 days

2018 (JJA): 25C+ 59 days, 28C+  33 days, 29C+ 27 days, 30C+ 24 days, 32C+ 6 days, 35C+ 2 days

 

So we would need every day from now till the end of August to reach 25C to beat 2018 on that score! However the GFS this morning would see us catching up on the 28C+ count, and probably catching up on many of the others (not to mention smashing the 35+!)

 

 

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