Yes I agree Tim! I also remember the 95 and 03 summer living just south of Nottingham we weren't far behind southern England with the heat and dust bowl conditions but the sky was often milky or a yellowy colour.

For me 1976 was waking up to deep blue sky on plenty of mornings, something I don't see very often now!

I wasn't alive in 1976 but I'd say the local landscape around here is as dry as I have ever seen it. Not just the grass going brown which happens most years due to the sandy soil here, but trees shedding their leaves, and even the weeds along roadsides and alleyways dying back. The alleyways round here look as if they have been sprayed with weedkiller, as even hardy plants like nettles and brambles have gone brown and crispy. There's just no moisture anywhere.

Even the grey cloudy days like today just have a constant sapping warmth to them this year.

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40C on today’s 06z GFS.

Summer 2022 continues.

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40C on today’s 06z GFS.

Summer 2022 continues.

12Z has 25C on the same day. A long way to go yet!

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29.1c today's high in Suffolk following 29.5c yesterday in Monks Wood Cambridgeshire.  Think we're upto 7 or 8 29s now this year.

 

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29.1c today's high in Suffolk following 29.5c yesterday in Monks Wood Cambridgeshire.  Think we're upto 7 or 8 29s now this year.

 

a couple of GFS fails this week. Both days were predicted above 30C.

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a couple of GFS fails this week. Both days were predicted above 30C.

Yes unusual for GFS as it's been very good this summer.

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29.1c today's high in Suffolk following 29.5c yesterday in Monks Wood Cambridgeshire.  Think we're upto 7 or 8 29s now this year.

 

As of yesterday for the meteorological summer months we are up to 15 days of 29C+, of which 9 have reached 30C.

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As of yesterday for the meteorological summer months we are up to 15 days of 29C+, of which 9 have reached 30C.

So if recent ensemble means are to be believed we should end up with something between 14 and 18 30C days, barring another last minute heatwave in late August or September. 

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So if recent ensemble means are to be believed we should end up with something between 14 and 18 30C days, barring another last minute heatwave in late August or September. 

Does anyone know if there's a site recording numbers of 30C+ days each summer (or each year) anywhere?

 

I found a chart on this blog page: https://wansteadmeteo.com/2022/05/10/30-degree-season/

but that only refers to London (it shows 13 days for 1976 and I'm sure there were more than that UK-wide - I think 15 days beat 32C somewhere didn't they?). The highest total on there is 14 for 2018.

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Don’t you remember 1995 though? Driest summer on record. Empty reservoirs across the North of England. Or 2003: sunniest summer on record. Followed in the sunshine stakes by 2018 (when I remember well the North including the Lakes went Savanna yellow). Or 1989, until 2018 the warmest and sunniest May-September extended summer on record. Yet whenever anyone compares summer weather with the past it’s always 1976. 

I suspect it’s about formative years. I remember 1995 like it was yesterday because I was 18 then. So 1995 (along with 1989) is the Gen X formative summer. 1976 is the boomer formative summer. The weather in one’s late teens seems to burn itself in the memory. 

I was 19 in 2006 so I’d say this is spot on. Many great memories that summer. Also, my mum born in 1965 is a very early Gen Xer so her ‘formative summer’ will probably be 1983, although she does remember 1976 very well too (just like I remember 1995). Generations are pretty big!

Both this summer and 2018 went yellow here - but recent rainfall has turned the grass green again. However the GFS is showing no rainfall at all here up to the 15th, so the grass could turn yellow again. 

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Does anyone know if there's a site recording numbers of 30C+ days each summer (or each year) anywhere?

 

I found a chart on this blog page: https://wansteadmeteo.com/2022/05/10/30-degree-season/

but that only refers to London (it shows 13 days for 1976 and I'm sure there were more than that UK-wide - I think 15 days beat 32C somewhere didn't they?). The highest total on there is 14 for 2018.

I’m not sure there is anywhere that lists number of 30C days for the country as a whole - only ones I’ve seen are per station eg Heathrow. 

The coming heatwave now looks firmed up. Possibly the last of the summer, but at least akin to the July 2021 spell and possibly the extremely hot week of August 2020. This morning’s GFS op:

25,28,29,31,33,34,36,36,33,32,33,31,30,27,27,23

10 days above 30. 4 more above 80F. Only one day below the old red BBC temperature badge level and that’s at the end of the run. I remember when the red circle was a sign of exciting summer weather.

 

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Met office ramping up the heat for Heathrow mid 30s by Thursday. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc&ved=2ahUKEwjrm8e39LH5AhUWR8AKHa9zAIkQFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3JgXsDJCgyInQuR8OANlW-

 

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The Met office for down here have given several days above 26c which is unusual. However after saying that a light ENE breeze is a warm direction for us having travelled over most of the country first .

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Quite a prolonged and widespread #heatwave across England & Wales is increasingly likely. Mid 30s possible. Check the app for YOUR location 🌡☀️ Temps may approach 30° into Yorkshire too… #heatwaveuk #Summer2022 #drought pic.twitter.com/c6kqshYdz0

— Tomasz Schafernaker (@Schafernaker) August 6, 2022

The Met Office have issued a level 2 heatwave alert for East and West Midlands, South West England, South East England, London and East of England from 12:00 Tuesday to 09:00 on Friday

The Met Office have issued a level 2 heatwave alert for East and West Midlands, South West England, South East England, London and East of England from 12:00 Tuesday to 09:00 on Friday

Anything for SE Wales?

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As well as #heatwave conditions returning this coming week, tropical nights likely to return too#Temperatures not dropping below 20C overnight for some pic.twitter.com/E1Pj3WROxt

— Marco Petagna (@Petagna) August 7, 2022

 

Anything for SE Wales?

 

The heatwave alert system is only used in England.

 

 

The RAF have closed RAF Brize Norton again due to the impending heatwave. 2 voyagers have gone up to Glasgow Prestwick.

The UKs biggest military base will be closed until at least Wednesday night

If things play out the way they are forecasted to, I expect this summer will turn out to be a very historic one. I usually find that you can add a degree or two to the forecasted temperatures, so if 36°C is predicted, we can assume that 38°C is a reasonable possibility. Let's let that play out:

1) A heat wave that brings the first ever 40°C in July, and virtually the entire country smashing their local records to boot.
2) A 38°C heat wave in August, that either sets or comes very close to a new August record.
3) Two 18°C+ CET months - a feat that only 1911 and 1995 have achieved.
4) Probably the worst drought since 1976 in the southern half of the country.

And whilst it's technically autumn, I wouldn't be surprised if September does something remarkable too, given the state of the land and atmosphere this summer...

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