One never knows what might happen. As I noted above, we managed to get a sub-zero CET month in December 2010 for the first time in nearly 25 years and that, if memory serves me well, was the first sub-zero CET December since 1890 or thenabouts. Also worth noting that that also happened during the current period of a positive AMO. This was also only a year after Scotland in 2009 had its coldest December overall since the freezer of 1981 (the freeze in December 2009 began a week before Christmas, IIRC).

I think that what you say is true but the gaps between severe cold spells are lengthening and they are shorter and less severe each time with less average snowfall in between. Furthermore the perception of cold and decent snow fall has been diluted. My grandchildren have only seen about two proper snow events  here in 20 years. They think a max of 4-5C is cold and 5 cm of snow would have them cheering with excitement.

A quick glance at the 18z ensembles means it's time for bed and another Groundhog Day of weather awaits. (Bar the snow and cold of course!)

 

Point taken, Steve. That said, and as I posted earlier, we were having broadly similar discussions on this forum 15 years ago when I was a newcomer to this place about whether or not cold winters and notable spells of cold in the UK were effectively consigned to the history books given what had occured over the previous 15 or so years. Very few, if any, of us at that time could have foreseen what was to happen in two successive winters only a few years later.

Also, as I think was mentioned previously, there doesn't seem to have been a lack of cold in others parts of the globe this winter. It seems to be that for whatever reason(s), the synoptics in our part of the world haven't played ball even though it seemed we were close to a cold spell according to the models in mid-December.

Back in the mid-noughties I did believe within myself that cold winters were still possible and a few years later I was proved to be correct, and I still have that feeling now. The 2020/21 winter overall wasn't exactly mild in my part of the world although I appreciate it may have been different elsewhere. I honestly don't believe that so much has changed in the last 8-9 years (very little time in climate terms) which makes our chances of cold winters very much less than was the case in 2013 and prior to then.

 

I don't think anyone is doubting that cold winters are still possible. The issue is whether the chance of any given winter being cold is reducing and my view is that it is. The simple analysis I did early last year suggests there is a reducing amount of "cold air" in the northern hemisphere during the winter months:  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather-news/5594/air-mass-temperatures-since-1961

Also, the NCEP chart that I frequently reference, because it is simple and to the point, shows a positive pressure trend to the south of the UK and a negative one to the north. 

Finally, it's clear that more months are above CET than below and unless the comparison period is reduced from 30 year to perhaps 15 that is likely to continue being the case, although there will of course be clusters of colder months in the mix. I'm not a stats guru but when I made this point the other day I wasn't talking about the last year as Taylor1740 implied. I was talking about the trend in recent years or even decades. 

Copy and paste indeed. Yesterday's summary holds good:

WX Summary shows an interestingly large blob of cold air far out to the east but W Europe continues mild with (C isotherm still pushed back to the further side of Poland. Very dry week 1 for Europe generally, and drier than shown yesterday for week 2 though pptn is there for NW Britain and Norway. Just a slight shift today with some of the colder stuff heading S and rain more to the W of UK than to the N

Jet currently running N of Britain but moving S to affect Britain from Fri 1st; no long and strong flows, more a series of pulses. Again a slight shift, the move S-wards is more pronounced and now the line is mainly S of the UK

GFS op - HP still with us to Mon 31st just about fending off colder/cooler air over Europe then a series of troughs approaching from the Atlantic and stalling W of Ireland with S-ly winds until a major LP (as yesterday) establishes Sun 6th 945mb Rockall

GEFS temps soon becoming milder and staying there  or at least close to norm until Mon 31st, steadily in S but up and down mostly above norm in Scotland esp in NE; after which maybe a bit cooler generally but too much variation in ensemble members to be sure. Rain in an increasing number of ensemble members from around Tue 1st, not a lot in the SE, rather more and from a few days earlier in NW

ECM has HP centred further S so W-lies in force esp approaching 31st

For the first time in say 10 days, the FI charts have started to look a little different.

Thats the highlight for this morning.

There have been hints in recent runs of the area of high pressure easing south and some signals for a pattern change.  The open question is what comes next, of course.

cant help that after such a dry mid winter, a wet spring is on the cards.. .based on the balance of fortunes.

Weve enjoyed some fantastic springs recently. This year might buck the trend (has the winter)

The old 'Law of Averages' fallacy, not a good basis for forecasting

The open question is what comes next, of course.

Smart money is on "flow from a westerly quadrant, wet at times (especially in the north and west) and temps around 10c"

Horrendous climate we have in the UK.

 

The old 'Law of Averages' fallacy, not a good basis for forecasting

Depends how big your average window is... For me in Wirral - it tends to follow this rule fairly well.

If its been prolonged warm, you can bet you can get a prolonged cold (typically the warm comes in the Winter, and the cold int he summer)

If its been prolonged wet - we will have prolonged dry.  For reference: we had 130% rainfall in December, we are at 40% in January.  Kinda balancing it out.  I would bet quite strongly March will come in around 130% rainfall.

 

I don't think anyone is doubting that cold winters are still possible. The issue is whether the chance of any given winter being cold is reducing and my view is that it is. The simple analysis I did early last year suggests there is a reducing amount of "cold air" in the northern hemisphere during the winter months:  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather-news/5594/air-mass-temperatures-since-1961

Also, the NCEP chart that I frequently reference, because it is simple and to the point, shows a positive pressure trend to the south of the UK and a negative one to the north. 

Finally, it's clear that more months are above CET than below and unless the comparison period is reduced from 30 year to perhaps 15 that is likely to continue being the case, although there will of course be clusters of colder months in the mix. I'm not a stats guru but when I made this point the other day I wasn't talking about the last year as Taylor1740 implied. I was talking about the trend in recent years or even decades. 

Yes I think what you are saying is that it's more that the synoptic patterns have changed recently so that pressure is higher to the South and lower to the North which on average leads to more west and south westerlies and less Northern blocking and easterlies in Winter.

Though I remember around 2009-2013 quite a few people were saying that less Arctic sea ice would lead to more Northern blocking and a more meandering and southwards Jetstream to explain the cold winters at the time in a way that fitted their narrative. Whereas now we are saying that a warmer world is actually leading to the opposite with a Jetstream shifted Northwards causing milder Winters, so it has to be one or the other it can't be used to explain all possibilities.

However I don't think anyone can rightly argue that it is simply too warm now for proper snow in the UK as David points out. We only have to look at the cold spells other parts of the world are having and the recent examples of the cold April last year, March 2013, December 2010 etc. I fully expect we will get a severe Winter again similar to 2009/2010 at some point in the next 10 years, we just need to get lucky with the synoptic pattern.

 

 

Depends how big your average window is... For me in Wirral - it tends to follow this rule fairly well.

If its been prolonged warm, you can bet you can get a prolonged cold (typically the warm comes in the Winter, and the cold int he summer)

 

If its been prolonged wet - we will have prolonged dry.  For reference: we had 130% rainfall in December, we are at 40% in January.  Kinda balancing it out.  I would bet quite strongly March will come in around 130% rainfall.

The nature of our climate dictates that we'll get spells of wet and dry, of warm and cold. There's no 'balancing out' per se, and it's more a case of us humans seeking patterns in natural and random occurrences 

 

 

The nature of our climate dictates that we'll get spells of wet and dry, of warm and cold. There's no 'balancing out' per se, and it's more a case of us humans seeking patterns in natural and random occurrences 

based on that point - and the fact we have had such a snow deficit over the last few years, that im fully expecting to open up a Wirral Ski resort for the next 20 yrs based on my analysis.

 

 

Smart money is on "flow from a westerly quadrant, wet at times (especially in the north and west) and temps around 10c"

Horrendous climate we have in the UK.

My view is that winter often delivers the UK's most boring synoptics. That's not an attempt at trolling by me and I fully understand that a lot of people on the forums focus on winter because of the possibility of snow.

 

 

Depends how big your average window is... For me in Wirral - it tends to follow this rule fairly well.

If its been prolonged warm, you can bet you can get a prolonged cold (typically the warm comes in the Winter, and the cold int he summer)

 

If its been prolonged wet - we will have prolonged dry.  For reference: we had 130% rainfall in December, we are at 40% in January.  Kinda balancing it out.  I would bet quite strongly March will come in around 130% rainfall.

Maybe, maybe not.  But I am reminded that if you toss a coin five times and get five heads, the chances of the 6th being a head remain 50/50.

Of course, over a sufficiently long period things do even out: it’s then called the climate, not weather……. 

To me, and others have said it, one of the biggest changes seems to be the long "blocks" of the same weather type. No longer is our weather changeable, with a couple of days of rain followed by a short decent spell, then a short showery spell and so on. In other words it is distinctly less mobile in all seasons, once it's stuck it's stuck, like now. 

cant help that after such a dry mid winter, a wet spring is on the cards.. .based on the balance of fortunes.

Weve enjoyed some fantastic springs recently. This year might buck the trend (has the winter)

I don’t know about anywhere else in the country but despite the relentless “dry” charts the ground is still very soggy around here. Local trails are still mudbaths because we haven’t had any good drying weather despite the lack of heavy rainfall. 

 

I don’t know about anywhere else in the country but despite the relentless “dry” charts the ground is still very soggy around here. Local trails are still mudbaths because we haven’t had any good drying weather despite the lack of heavy rainfall. 

Definitely not been a dry winter down here either.