Very uneventful theme continues. I still think @25th we will know which was things are going to go, westerly or "a brief northerly blast at best". Either way I think there is nothing more interesting on the horizon. Cannot believe that we have had such boring runs and yet we had a lot going in our favour this winter; Easterly QBO, La Nina you name it we had it.
Hope we get something more interesting in February as I fear we will have a mild February followed by snow in March and April like we did last year followed by a crap summer.
Sorry for going OT everyone but seeing as there is not much of any interest to discuss in the model output I shall seize this opportunity to reply with my own thoughts.
Yes and yet there is no explanation! One would have thought that with an easterly QBO the PV would be weaker and weaker zonal flow as well as an increase chances of SSW's and what's ironic is to think last year that we were in a westerly QBO yet managed x2 or 3 SSW's and weaker zonal winds and PV! - This year we had so much in our favor - not to mention the MJO into phase 7/8 as well as a neutral IOD and the eastern based La Nina, rapid cooling of SST's in NE Pacific, what more can we have in our favour for a cold winter? Oh and you forgot to mention the rapid increase in Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow cover earlier in the season.
Non one knows why we can't get sufficient HLB!? Someone shouted out about the increase in solar activity is responsible for our mild winter and record breaking warmth end of December into January? However, if this is the case then surely it would effect other regions as well such as Scandinavia, N America, Canada, Europe and Asia as well etc but the truth is that it hasn't? Seattle has seen record snow and western states including western Canada breaking records for cold weather and across the north sea Scandinavia broke records with a new low of -43.8c in December 2021 in a village called Naimakka. - Coldest temperature recorded in 35 years.
Japan has seen record snow as well as well as many other Asian countries like Pakistan etc. Eastern Europe esp the SE has seen exceptionally cold weather and this week more cold weather is heading their way and more cold weather is heading into the eastern most states of the USA as well as more lake effect snow.
My point is that there is plenty of cold and snow around but never seems to be over western Europe and when it does arrive it will be in March or April of course.
My guess is that it's due to the large area of High Pressure to the South and West of Alaska and this has been persistent for several winters now and it sends the jet southwards and LP's plunge into Canada and N America - giving them true Arctic cold and snow. We saw this last year when it turned exceptionally cold in the southern states such as Texas when Dallas Ft Worth recorded a new low of -19c in February 2021.
UK on the other hand did have a colder snap but no true locked in cold like a BFTE or Siberian air and or proper snowfall. So perhaps if we want true cold then above average pressure/heights need to lower over south of Alaska/NE Pacific and then perhaps this could promote blocking on our side of the mid latitudes so we can experience cold and snow not just the same old places such as Canada and N America?
What is also strange is how warm the Autumn has been and why we haven't recorded a below CET month since July!? We appear to be in continuous Autumn.
Another thing which is very bizarre about this winter is the fact that the PV is strengthening as we're going into late winter instead of weakening and the temperature in the stratosphere is cooling instead of warming! Very unusual indeed.
There is still time for cold and snow of course but with nothing of interest showing in the models for the rest of January it's fair to say January will be a write off for cold and snow! By the time we get into February we would have had 2/3rd's of the winter gone with no cold spell.
So my conclusion is that an easterly QBO and La Nina (especially eastern based) along with rapid increase in Siberian snow cover and Arctic sea ice early season doesn't guarantee a cold winter despite what the analogues may show.
Edited by user
19 January 2022 01:20:32
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Reason: Not specified
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com