Well charts banked followng a GFS Op 12z run on 5th January for today with so much WWA and HLB and that cobra type look to it - just shows how different things are in reality today: - I told you I WOULD Bank them JFF:

Could have been a December 2010 with a potent northerly and -10c uppers with that blocking of 1050/1060mb over Greenland if that was to come about today:

 

Compare that to reality today's 06Z re what the charts show for 21/01 we see pressure of 970mb over Greenland - So a total absence of HLB anyway. 

 

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Still settled well into February.

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=378&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref

 

 

 

 

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Some eyecandy in FI on the 6Z. Lol

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Quite impressive - the control run has managed to switch by 20C in 6 hours. It's just unpredictable garbage really after 5 days as the HP wanders about.

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_240_1.png
Small window of opportunity

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_240_1.png
Small window of opportunity

Shame is not in summer months when we would be looking at low to mid 30's days.

The mother of all winter easterlies in the GFS 12z wonderland:

No cold air at all over the northern continent and temps closer to what you'd see in late April than in late January. In other words, same crap, different month. 

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Another hard frost last night here -4.4! Which make x11 nights in January below -0C

What the HP has done to Central areas in-particular is lead to a frosty month

It’s also the first month my weather station has been significantly different to the CET average (due to the amount of frost vs other areas recorded)

Mean average IMBY is 3.7C . I expect negative corrections from Hadley but in all other years my mean temperature has been within 0.5 of the CET average as well.

Shows how those frosts have kept it cold in central areas compared to the rest

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I am clutching at straws here but a consistent signal for something at 10hpa towards the end of the run - similar to the 06z run but the 12z run shows it more clearly - Will this trend continue and is the model picking up on a SSW or should this be dismissed - it's all in FI range but seeing as our weather is and has been so boring for the past several weeks now I thought this could be something of interest to discuss?

 

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FI loaded with potential, had we not come from a fairly stagnant HP situation pf the past few weeks there would be alot of chatter about this, coupled with a few outrageous GEF runs recently.

As it stands though it just feels like the HP has outstayed its welcome and really needs to do one, with any variation of it just seems painful from a Model watcher POV

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GFS 12z ensembles look surprisingly cold into February, however I suspect a lot of them will be showing cold zonality rather than a true cold spell.

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GFS 12z ensembles look surprisingly cold into February, however I suspect a lot of them will be showing cold zonality rather than a true cold spell.

Certainly a broad split now

I am clutching at straws here but a consistent signal for something at 10hpa towards the end of the run - similar to the 06z run but the 12z run shows it more clearly - Will this trend continue and is the model picking up on a SSW or should this be dismissed - it's all in FI range but seeing as our weather is and has been so boring for the past several weeks now I thought this could be something of interest to discuss?

 

Straws are nearly as hard to come by as snow this winter. The strat charts on instant weather maps are showing almost a split in la la land of the gfs run so something to at least pin some hopes on although it could be gone on the next run. The strat  forecasts on ecm at the moement are not showing anything as extreme at the moment just a gradual slowing of the zonal winds as we go through February.

 

GFS 12z ensembles look surprisingly cold into February, however I suspect a lot of them will be showing cold zonality rather than a true cold spell.

Best set for some while 

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GFS shows some potential favourable blocking within the members in FI. Op was mild outlier likely 

February looks to lose the HP UK (as things show) 

Still some frosts this week ahead in areas, does not look as clear as last week though?

Looking ahead to March as March has been mentioned a lot recently 

x3 winters with EQBO and La Nina that have been above average for the season

Above Average Winters & EQBO + La Nina

1956/57 = March Very Mild

1974/75 = March Very Cold

2011/12 = March Very Mild

Take your pick haha, all had extreme March's LOL

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GFS op so out of kilter with the Ensembles e .g
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850aberdeen0.png 

IMO the only wintry interest will be possible cold zonality.

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GFS shows some potential favourable blocking within the members in FI. Op was mild outlier likely 

February looks to lose the HP UK (as things show) 

Still some frosts this week ahead in areas, does not look as clear as last week though?

Looking ahead to March as March has been mentioned a lot recently 

x3 winters with EQBO and La Nina that have been above average for the season

Above Average Winters & EQBO + La Nina

1956/57 = March Very Mild

1974/75 = March Very Cold

2011/12 = March Very Mild

Take your pick haha, all had extreme March's LOL

The 12z was a complete outlier for much of the latter stages of the run; in fact as unsupported as I’ve seen in quite a long time.

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Some signs emerging of something of greater interest for cold fans - and some encouraging snow rows for east Anglia 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=6&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6

 

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Some signs emerging of something of greater interest for cold fans - and some encouraging snow rows for east Anglia 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=6&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6

 

??

The borefeast/settled spell looks set for the next week or so.

Then the scatter starts, the snow rows and 850 hpa Ens would not look out of place in late Autumn let alone Mid-Winter.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=341&y=88

 

A dip in the 850's ENS mean around the 28th now appearing!? But only a dip and may not even verify and if it did it will only provide average temperatures and temporary set to last one day! - Not really interested in the latter stages of the ENS for obvious reasons.

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