Before LeedsLad comes on and whips us all into shape, I can pretty confidently say Manchester is wetter than Leeds (certainly in terms of rain days, not sure about actual rainfall).

Leeds’s figures are misrepresented from the Bingley weather station which is 200m up in the Pennines - for Leeds itself you’d be better off using Church Fenton which is much much drier. 

Manchester (Woodford) is also wetter than Liverpool (Crosby) but not by much. 

I must also apologise for being off topic, but Leeds really is a good example of how altitude and relief can make a huge difference over a matter of 5 or 6 miles. The west and northwest suburbs are much wetter than the centre and east. But even that doesnt tell the whole story. I'm from Otley and just over the hill by about 4 miles is Yeadon. The difference in rainfall and temperature has to be seen and felt on some days to be believed. Microclimates are fascinating beasties! Two overcoats colder and  a sturdy pair of boots wetter in Yeadon!

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Dreadful run for s/e Jires 

http://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=eng&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=144&plottype=10&lat=49.887&lon=-4.138&skewtstep=0

 

I don't see any LP anywhere in UK all covered with large 1020mb HP so should be sunny and warm everywhere?   Either the charts is wrong or misleading which I been seeing different conditions on surface daily against what the charts showing HP every day.

Good grief channel low maybe 70m/m by next Friday that’s a wash out for s/e

next attack inbound 

http://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=eng&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=192&plottype=10&lat=49.887&lon=-4.138&skewtstep=0

 

2mm accumulated rainfall here on that ECM run (by day 10).

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Good grief channel low maybe 70m/m by next Friday that’s a wash out for s/e

next attack inbound 

http://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=eng&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=192&plottype=10&lat=49.887&lon=-4.138&skewtstep=0

 

I don't live in the SE but this invisible non-exist low seem to placed there on purpose to block our potential summer warm to heat time frame as now we heading down to less daylight time.  If the jet are in the north why it we still getting those unsettled weather that why i feel the models had been misleading showing HP but the jet already further south so back to May set-up but not that cold as before.  I don't believe the jet are north now but down to France and S UK area.

Before LeedsLad comes on and whips us all into shape, I can pretty confidently say Manchester is wetter than Leeds (certainly in terms of rain days, not sure about actual rainfall).

Leeds’s figures are misrepresented from the Bingley weather station which is 200m up in the Pennines - for Leeds itself you’d be better off using Church Fenton which is much much drier. 

Manchester (Woodford) is also wetter than Liverpool (Crosby) but not by much. 

Yes, think you are right there.

Woodford and Bradford Lister Park average about 870mm, so I would say Manchester and Bradford are similar in terms of rainfall and Leeds dryer.  As Bow Echo says big variations. Under 600mm in the Vale of York, go west and it is over 1050mm at Bingley. Central Leeds may be 700mm at a guess . Hard to predict what it should be here given the gradients on the maps, but I am exposed and to the NW . Last year I did a full years measurements and recorded 1042mm , but it was a very wet year. I will continue to build up measurements.

 

Anyway looks fairly dry on ECM and GFS for the next week here, GFS more so as some of the stuff in the South moves up here on ECM.  Overall though, the nice useable weather looks likely to continue after a poor day today.

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I know it’s extremely frustrating I’m a heat fan in summer I’m also a strong believer in  that things eventually even out.

let’s hope sunny and hot conditions return soon, of course if it’s your desired outcome.

 

I don't live in the SE but this invisible non-exist low seem to placed there on purpose to block our potential summer warm to heat time frame as now we heading down to less daylight time.  If the jet are in the north why it we still getting those unsettled weather that why i feel the models had been misleading showing HP but the jet already further south so back to May set-up but not that cold as before.  I don't believe the jet are north now but down to France and S UK area.

This situation is analagous to those in winter where we almost have the classic coldies set up only for it to scuppered by an otherwise insignificant shortwave. Shame that little cold pool can't scarper as quickly as it dropped down on us from Iceland instead of hanging around like a wasp at a picnic. Paradoxically, here in North Somerset June so far has been quite dry compared with other areas of the South and it remains to be seen whether this area at least gets much rain over the coming days.

 

They have apologised for the trough which may have breached summer weather guidelines. However, they would like to reiterate that they have full confidence in the summer so far, and now consider the matter closed. 

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WX maaps show a bit of warmth creeping into he S by week 2, but a lot of rain there first and not exactly dry later. The W getting more rain in week 2 - eastern France and Germanygetting a real soaking  over the next two weeks

FAX keeping that trough over or close to S England to end of run Wed and (despite Jiries' claims) HP only starts nosing in on Wed and then mainly to Scotland. After a lot of uncertainty in the models about tomorrow' s rain, it looks as if there will  be a double dose, a line moving N tonight and fading except that it never leaves the far SW, and a second thindery batch late afternoon coming across the central Channel.[MetO rainfall map]

GFS matches FAX, the HP slowly taking over after Wed 30th but takeover not complete until Sat 3rd (and even then the green circle of doom is still not far away, o the French/German border) It doesn't last as shallow troughs move E-ward from Atlantic Mon 5th 1005 mb N Sea and Sat 10th 1005 mb Ireland with ridge of HP between. The promised W-ly pattern is only there by Mon 12th, with quite a large temp gradient N-S

GEFS In the S, mean temps near norm throughout (serious variation from Mon 5th with several very warm runs appearing) and frequent rain, some runs with big totals,  not relaxing until around Mon 12th. In the N, temps consistently above norm, cooling a little from Sat 10th, and no rain until Sun 4th after which moderate amounts

ECM delays the breakdown of next weekend's HP with LP moving N to Iceland before extending a trough in the direction of UK Tue  6th

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Thanks Dew much appreciated, I would expect a met office warning for Rainfall for southern districts soon for Tuesday thats a large amount of rainfall in a short period.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=00&charthour=93&chartname=ukprecipacc&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20accum
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=84&carte=2000
http://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=gfs,gfs,gfs,gfs&region=eng&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=00&step=084&plottype=10&lat=51.507&lon=-0.128&skewtstep=0

 

WX maaps show a bit of warmth creeping into he S by week 2, but a lot of rain there first and not exactly dry later. The W getting more rain in week 2 - eastern France and Germanygetting a real soaking  over the next two weeks

FAX keeping that trough over or close to S England to end of run Wed and (despite Jiries' claims) HP only starts nosing in on Wed and then mainly to Scotland. After a lot of uncertainty in the models about tomorrow' s rain, it looks as if there will  be a double dose, a line moving N tonight and fading except that it never leaves the far SW, and a second thindery batch late afternoon coming across the central Channel.[MetO rainfall map]

GFS matches FAX, the HP slowly taking over after Wed 30th but takeover not complete until Sat 3rd (and even then the green circle of doom is still not far away, o the French/German border) It doesn't last as shallow troughs move E-ward from Atlantic Mon 5th 1005 mb N Sea and Sat 10th 1005 mb Ireland with ridge of HP between. The promised W-ly pattern is only there by Mon 12th, with quite a large temp gradient N-S

GEFS In the S, mean temps near norm throughout (serious variation from Mon 5th with several very warm runs appearing) and frequent rain, some runs with big totals,  not relaxing until around Mon 12th. In the N, temps consistently above norm, cooling a little from Sat 10th, and no rain until Sun 4th after which moderate amounts

ECM delays the breakdown of next weekend's HP with LP moving N to Iceland before extending a trough in the direction of UK Tue  6th

A significant rain event next week at some point possible.  Other than that GEFS looks pretty reasonable.  

 

 

 

 

 

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A significant rain event next week at some point possible.  Other than that GEFS looks pretty reasonable.  

 

 

 

 

 

Up here it is a bit different (after today):

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Up here it is a bit different (after today):

 

Yes looks like a lovely spell of weather for you guys up there. Will Richard find something to complain about though?

 

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Yes looks like a lovely spell of weather for you guys up there. Will Richard find something to complain about though?

 

I bet we get haar. 

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https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/domaci/tornado-morava-autenticke-video-zabery-z-blizka-policie.A210626_091100_domaci_brzy 

Play the video, from the czech storm on thursday. if you would like to read the article , copy and paste into google translate

I see GFS and the other models have played their favourite game of swapsies this morning and we now have GFS settling things down nicely from Thursday onwards while GEM, ECMWF and UKMO bring in the dartboard southerly tracking lows, 2012 style.

Just as GFS was getting its act together too…

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I see GFS and the other models have played their favourite game of swapsies this morning and we now have GFS settling things down nicely from Thursday onwards while GEM, ECMWF and UKMO bring in the dartboard southerly tracking lows, 2012 style.

Just as GFS was getting its act together too…

ECM giving us quite the little green blob there

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ECM giving us quite the little green blob there

There it is, the summer pattern I'm anticipating, right there. Growing consensus for a miserable July gaining traction. 

GFS is the one strand of hope today, but given the others are all trending in this direction, I wouldn't think that GFS in on the right path at the moment.

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The BBC look ahead last night showed the LP currently spoiling summer for he south as a persistent and even enlarging feature before finally pushing off into the Continent later this week, with bands of rain affecting anywhere south of Manchester/Leeds in a random fashion. FAX agrees and shows a mess of fronts over S England until Thu 1st. But WX maps offers something much warmer and drier for the S in week 2, and although suggesting somewhat damper for the NW at that time, not dramatically so.

Jet fragments around UK to start with, then dipping S over Spain from Thu 1st gradually moving N again and breaking up over the UK Wed 7th before re-forming well to the N on Mon 12th

GFS - HP over Scotland gradually extending a ridge S-wards and just about holding on between the LP leaving the S and LP pressing from the Atlantic until Wed 7th when the HP focus shifts to a ridge from SW across UK to Norway and a close approach of LP to Hebrides. The ridge strengthens a bit, but is still there Tue 13th, similarly squeezed from both sides with LP near Rockall and something vaguely thundery over France (but the latter this time with a warm centre unlike the present one)

GEFS - significant rain for the S until Thu 1st then most runs edging warmer with what looks like a showery pattern of rainfall through to Tue 13th. Scotland up to 5C above norm and dry until about Mon 5th, the temps back to norm and rain becoming more frequent as time passes though not large amounts.

ECM - disappointing as after Wed 7th (it's like GFS up till then)LP on the Atlantic gathers strength and pushes in to be centred over N England 1000 mb Tue 6th with a notable cold pool at its centre.

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